cute fuzzy bunny
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Most of the definitions I've seen call value stocks "Good companies that are (perhaps temporarily) out of favor, that usually are paying a good dividend, and are priced favorably to their assets and business prospects".
Some companies seem to be almost perpetual value stocks...kmart and sears come to mine although i havent looked at either in quite a while. Others come and go.
Sometimes growth beats value, as in the end of the 90's...over most long hauls, value beats growth. Probably the steady dividend. Good chapter in "the four pillars" describes why owning "bad" stocks can be good and why owning "good" stocks can be bad. On the flip side, "good" growth stocks dont usually stay "good" for long periods of time and can become "value".
I've got a boatload of large value in wellington and wellesley, and in my IRA my two largest holdings are REIT and small cap value. I have all the dividends and capital gains from the reit fund buying more small cap value in the IRA. Let the cash generator DCA the best long term returning asset class there is...
I've considered selling the wellesley and wellington and splitting the proceeds 40% to the large cap value index and 60% to the CA intermediate term muni bond fund. It'd give me roughly the same yield, tax free, and would cut my investment costs by a few basis points. Might be a good idea for long term investors with a muni bond fund for their state. Another option is to look at the "wellesley index" or "wellington index" in their respective prospecti...they cobble up a mix of indexes they try to benchmark against...you could simply mimic that with indexes for less money if you really, really hate the idea of a managed fund.
As far as the election and all the associated tomfoolery...dont get me started. Suffice it to say that I believe everyones entitled to their own opinions, but not their own facts. A lot of people made up their own facts in this election and decided on the basis of those individually owned facts. I am deeply fearful of the long term results, but it is what it is, and we're going to have to live with it now.
As a marketing guy though, I have to express admiration for GW's handlers in passing off a rich white Yalie from Maine as a blue collar Texas cowboy. My hats off to those folks.
The bounce in the market is no surprise...its the mass psychological reaction to the removal of a major uncertainty. In nearly every case where an election is decided, theres a bounce up following. Although you'll see that later in the days trading the "bloom went off the rose" a little bit as traders started looking at upcoming data. Which hasnt been good lately and I suspect will get steadily worse.
One more thing, I'm going to recommend contrary to Azanon. I think the market is way overpriced and growth is no exception. Granted these things go in cycles but the last growth 'run up' was largely the tech/internet boom that shouldnt ever have happened. That those stocks are beaten down and remain down doesnt mean they're going to spring back up.
When its "look out below" time, cheap value stocks paying dividends will make you feel better than expensive growth stocks that might have an upside cycle coming due.
Some companies seem to be almost perpetual value stocks...kmart and sears come to mine although i havent looked at either in quite a while. Others come and go.
Sometimes growth beats value, as in the end of the 90's...over most long hauls, value beats growth. Probably the steady dividend. Good chapter in "the four pillars" describes why owning "bad" stocks can be good and why owning "good" stocks can be bad. On the flip side, "good" growth stocks dont usually stay "good" for long periods of time and can become "value".
I've got a boatload of large value in wellington and wellesley, and in my IRA my two largest holdings are REIT and small cap value. I have all the dividends and capital gains from the reit fund buying more small cap value in the IRA. Let the cash generator DCA the best long term returning asset class there is...
I've considered selling the wellesley and wellington and splitting the proceeds 40% to the large cap value index and 60% to the CA intermediate term muni bond fund. It'd give me roughly the same yield, tax free, and would cut my investment costs by a few basis points. Might be a good idea for long term investors with a muni bond fund for their state. Another option is to look at the "wellesley index" or "wellington index" in their respective prospecti...they cobble up a mix of indexes they try to benchmark against...you could simply mimic that with indexes for less money if you really, really hate the idea of a managed fund.
As far as the election and all the associated tomfoolery...dont get me started. Suffice it to say that I believe everyones entitled to their own opinions, but not their own facts. A lot of people made up their own facts in this election and decided on the basis of those individually owned facts. I am deeply fearful of the long term results, but it is what it is, and we're going to have to live with it now.
As a marketing guy though, I have to express admiration for GW's handlers in passing off a rich white Yalie from Maine as a blue collar Texas cowboy. My hats off to those folks.
The bounce in the market is no surprise...its the mass psychological reaction to the removal of a major uncertainty. In nearly every case where an election is decided, theres a bounce up following. Although you'll see that later in the days trading the "bloom went off the rose" a little bit as traders started looking at upcoming data. Which hasnt been good lately and I suspect will get steadily worse.
One more thing, I'm going to recommend contrary to Azanon. I think the market is way overpriced and growth is no exception. Granted these things go in cycles but the last growth 'run up' was largely the tech/internet boom that shouldnt ever have happened. That those stocks are beaten down and remain down doesnt mean they're going to spring back up.
When its "look out below" time, cheap value stocks paying dividends will make you feel better than expensive growth stocks that might have an upside cycle coming due.
Over a very long time, sure, its hard to beat a good-ole value stock or mutual fund that pays both dividends and has capital gains.
I was just talking about what style of stocks I think will do well over the next two years only. I think the growth sector will. We'll see.
I was just talking about what style of stocks I think will do well over the next two years only. I think the growth sector will. We'll see.
C
Cut-Throat
Guest
I feel better already. I've got both asset classes covered
cute fuzzy bunny
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Well we just WILL see then, wont we, mister!
One of the things I watch is this:
http://www.businesscycle.com/
scroll down to the pretty graph.
According to these leading economic indicators, we've got a slow gentle slide coming until the end of Q1, then a drop to a recessionary posture.
As this leading indicator package has been EXTREMELY good at detecting turning points in the economy, and they've pretty much nailed all of the major inflection points over the past 25-30 years, I almost believe it.
Should we re-enter a recessionary phase, we dont have the big interest rate cutting room we had the last time.
Crap monetary policy. Bad jobs situation. Currency in the crapper. Recessionary posture. Lots of people over their heads in debt.
I only have three words to describe that scenario.
Ugly. Ugly. Ugly.
Not a good place to own a lot of stocks, especially growth.
But I'll be every bit as interested in how it REALLY goes as you are.
In the meanwhile, cross everything you have at least two of and hope for the best...
One of the things I watch is this:
http://www.businesscycle.com/
scroll down to the pretty graph.
According to these leading economic indicators, we've got a slow gentle slide coming until the end of Q1, then a drop to a recessionary posture.
As this leading indicator package has been EXTREMELY good at detecting turning points in the economy, and they've pretty much nailed all of the major inflection points over the past 25-30 years, I almost believe it.
Should we re-enter a recessionary phase, we dont have the big interest rate cutting room we had the last time.
Crap monetary policy. Bad jobs situation. Currency in the crapper. Recessionary posture. Lots of people over their heads in debt.
I only have three words to describe that scenario.
Ugly. Ugly. Ugly.
Not a good place to own a lot of stocks, especially growth.
But I'll be every bit as interested in how it REALLY goes as you are.
In the meanwhile, cross everything you have at least two of and hope for the best...
C
Cut-Throat
Guest
You've got to admit TH, Investing in Growth Stocks might be the true Contrarian Play.
But then there is Investing in Iraq Real Estate.
ShokWaveRider
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
According to these leading economic indicators, we've got a slow gentle slide coming until the end of Q1, then a drop to a recessionary posture.
As this leading indicator package has been EXTREMELY good at detecting turning points in the economy, and they've pretty much nailed all of the major inflection points over the past 25-30 years, I almost believe it.
Should we re-enter a recessionary phase, we dont have the big interest rate cutting room we had the last time.
Crap monetary policy. Bad jobs situation. Currency in the crapper. Recessionary posture. Lots of people over their heads in debt.
I only have three words to describe that scenario.
Ugly. Ugly. Ugly.
Not a good place to own a lot of stocks, especially growth.
But I'll be every bit as interested in how it REALLY goes as you are.
In the meanwhile, cross everything you have at least two of and hope for the best...
Are you saying it is not the time to put my IRA into stock? May as well wack it into a 5 year CD at 4.75%
SWR
Hyperborea
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
And for his next trick Th will pick the winning ticket number in the state lottery so stay tuned for it.
cute fuzzy bunny
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Ah Blow Me !
( Been a long time since we've had one of those )
( Been a long time since we've had one of those )
Hyperborea
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Ah Blow Me !
Contrapositive back at you.
You've got to be careful with your imaginings on the stock market or you'll have all the 'fraidy cats following your "predictions", putting their money into Savings Bonds, and ending up like Dominguez in a group home and cutting their own hair with a Flowbee.
C
Cut-Throat
Guest
Now we're cooking! Time for an interesting post from Cuthroat. (Happy Hour)
Not too happy today Jarhead! - I'm drowning my sorrows
cute fuzzy bunny
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Owie...wine out of nose cant be good, and I know it cant be internally generated like milk is...or heck...my SWR would be a lot lower.
So whats got ya down CT? Just discovered you have an inferior oil filter? I noted that not one of the ones analyzed contained dryer sheets. Might be something there for an enterprising soul that still wants to work.
Hyper - Five bonus green stamps for a correct implementation of the term "contrapositive"! Ding Ding Ding (duck comes down on a rope)...that should be enough nostalgia for the old timers If you'd been following with me along my investment career, I've never, ever been a bear. I enthusiastically invested like a normal person in the 80's and early to mid 90's, rocked on tech stocks just like the rest of you idiots, and have been a conservative balanced investor since then.
But I'm worried right now. Everything from politics to economics to some reasonably well historied indicators to the tea leaves are smelling a little off to me. The last time I had the heebie jeebies like this was right at the end of 1999.
This is not to say I'm getting out of stocks. In fact the last few months I increased my large cap value holdings, bought some energy and increased my reit holdings...some of it in expectation of the post election pop. Heck, I'm up 1.5% today and roughly 4.5% in the past quarter. So its working for me so far.
But after the first of the year I may start shifting SOME of my stock into intermediate munis and watch for this downturn ECRI is predicting...I am very cautiously optimistic but I'm pulling out a size 12 frying pan and placing it over my posterior... :-/
So whats got ya down CT? Just discovered you have an inferior oil filter? I noted that not one of the ones analyzed contained dryer sheets. Might be something there for an enterprising soul that still wants to work.
Hyper - Five bonus green stamps for a correct implementation of the term "contrapositive"! Ding Ding Ding (duck comes down on a rope)...that should be enough nostalgia for the old timers
If you'd been following with me along my investment career, I've never, ever been a bear. I enthusiastically invested like a normal person in the 80's and early to mid 90's, rocked on tech stocks just like the rest of you idiots, and have been a conservative balanced investor since then.But I'm worried right now. Everything from politics to economics to some reasonably well historied indicators to the tea leaves are smelling a little off to me. The last time I had the heebie jeebies like this was right at the end of 1999.
This is not to say I'm getting out of stocks. In fact the last few months I increased my large cap value holdings, bought some energy and increased my reit holdings...some of it in expectation of the post election pop. Heck, I'm up 1.5% today and roughly 4.5% in the past quarter. So its working for me so far.
But after the first of the year I may start shifting SOME of my stock into intermediate munis and watch for this downturn ECRI is predicting...I am very cautiously optimistic but I'm pulling out a size 12 frying pan and placing it over my posterior... :-/
C
Cut-Throat
Guest
Yesterday was election day.
As far as the investment climate giving you the heebie jeebies. I've had the Heebie Jeebies ever since 1999. I did not have the heebie jeebies in 1978 because I didn't have any money
They also say that Wall Street climbs a wall of worry.... More money is lost waiting for the correction than the actual correction...... etc. etc. etc.
Again, I have no idea of what is going to happen and am glad that I don't have to decide where to invest.
Hyperborea
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Yes but "via duck"? Why not a goose?
that should be enough nostalgia for the old timers
Or those of us who "wasted" our youth staying up late and watching old movies/shows on TV before late nights were filled with infomercials.
Me, I just don't know. I spread it around in a reasonable allocation and rebalance it on a regular basis. It beats 90% of prognosticators 100% of the time. Of course which 10% it doesn't beat changes every year. Perhaps this year you will be one of the 10% or maybe not (90% chance that it's not).
Ah, getting into the frying pan in preparation for the leap into the fire.
cute fuzzy bunny
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I think we've all had enough of the goose.
