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Old 12-24-2018, 01:02 PM   #121
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Look at the dow volume from 2015-now. UP NEARLY 6-7X!

https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/%5ED...JjaGFydCJ9fX19
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Old 12-24-2018, 02:34 PM   #122
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Originally Posted by Chuckanut View Post
So, is it a black bear or a grizzly bear?

And even more important... Is it attacking because it sees you as a threat, or does it see you as prey?

https://www.businessinsider.com/clin...attack-2016-12
The bears are sleepy. Let's not wake them.

I love the bit about grizzly bears having federal protection, so if you shoot one there's an investigation. Really? I'm going to just stand there and let something eat me? I had a different plan.
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Old 12-24-2018, 02:58 PM   #123
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-1. Not yet.

The S&P high was 2940.91. It closed today at 2467.42. That's -16.1% down. Only 4 more percents to go. It may make it there before New Year. Plenty of time for us to celebrate NY and start 2019 in the pits. Why rush it?
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OK - I think you can call it a bear now!
S&P closed at 2351.10 today, which is 79.99% of the recent high.

Hurrah, it is officially a bear market.

We can now all celebrate Christmas with the bear awakened.

Do we have a word for the market being down 30%? Let's prepare to celebrate NY with that milestone too.
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Old 12-24-2018, 03:08 PM   #124
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Originally Posted by Chuckanut View Post
So, is it a black bear or a grizzly bear?

And even more important... Is it attacking because it sees you as a threat, or does it see you as prey?

https://www.businessinsider.com/clin...attack-2016-12

Quote:
If playing dead does not cause the bear to lose interest, you are the rare victim of a predatory attack. The bear intends to kill and possibly eat you, so fight back with any available weapons—a knife, sticks, rocks, your fists. Aim for the eyes and nose, where the bear is most sensitive.

Its color is brown!

Should have deployed my pepper spray, but it's too late. Have to play dead now, and hope for the best.

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Old 12-24-2018, 03:14 PM   #125
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Maybe it's this sort of bear?

panda.jpg
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Old 12-24-2018, 03:16 PM   #126
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Remember: you don’t lose (or gain) a penny until you sell.
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Old 12-24-2018, 03:29 PM   #127
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Maybe we'll get lucky and get these bears.images.jpeg
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Old 12-24-2018, 03:31 PM   #128
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Maybe we should just acknowledge this was, in large part, caused by the "elephant" in the room?
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Old 12-24-2018, 03:40 PM   #129
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NOW it's a bear.
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Old 12-24-2018, 03:58 PM   #130
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Its color is brown!

Should have deployed my pepper spray, but it's too late. Have to play dead now, and hope for the best.
Not all brown bears are mean. She's a little cutie.50.jpeg
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Old 12-24-2018, 04:09 PM   #131
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I don’t believe that the retail investor is controlling the market.
+1
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Old 12-24-2018, 04:19 PM   #132
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NOW it's a bear.
Look on the bright side, since World War II bear markets on average lasted only about 13 months :

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Since World War II, bear markets on average have fallen 30.4 percent and have lasted 13 months, according to analysis by Goldman Sachs and CNBC. When that milestone has been hit, it took stocks an average of 21.9 months to recover.

Even when stocks enter “correction” territory, which is defined by at least a 10 percent drop from a recent high, there’s a long road to recovery. History shows corrections last four months, and equities slide 13 percent before finding a bottom.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/24/what...lly-last-.html
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Old 12-24-2018, 04:42 PM   #133
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Not time to buy yet. DW shops at Kohl's. Need to have a 30% off coupon before you can buy anything.

20% doesn't cut it.
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Old 12-24-2018, 04:52 PM   #134
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Honestly, I am kind of relieved to see it finally arrive so we can begin the countdown to the recovery. And I fully understand we may be quite a ways from the bottom.

I retired June 1 and still have 2 1/2 years expenses split between a Stable value fund for 2019 and early 2020, and the rest in Lockheed Martin bonds yielding ~3.4% (coupon 4.5%) that matures Nov 15, 2019. So barring unforeseen emergencies I won't need to sell an equity until 1st or 2nd qtr 2021.
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Old 12-24-2018, 04:54 PM   #135
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Remember: you don’t lose (or gain) a penny until you sell.
That is what keeps me from selling. YTD drop of almost 13%
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Old 12-26-2018, 02:28 PM   #136
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Shortest Bear market evah. Dow up 1k! Nasdaq up 3 and a half bills

Whew

I only check my portfolio on up days. Guess who is pulling out the calculator tonight?
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Old 12-26-2018, 02:32 PM   #137
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Shortest Bear market evah. Dow up 1k! Nasdaq up 3 and a half bills

Whew

I only check my portfolio on up days. Guess who is pulling out the calculator tonight?
Okay so since the SP 500 and Nasdaq hit 20%, but not the Dow, is it official that the Bull Market ended?
Not to ruin the party, but some of the largest % gains was in 2008.
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Old 12-26-2018, 02:44 PM   #138
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Shortest Bear market evah. Dow up 1k! Nasdaq up 3 and a half bills

Whew

I only check my portfolio on up days. Guess who is pulling out the calculator tonight?
The market has to reclaim its previous high for the bear market to end. Long way to go.
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Old 12-26-2018, 02:55 PM   #139
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Just out of curiosity, how long does the market have to stay down, for it to count as a bear? FWIW, I just ran my own numbers, and as of Christmas Eve, I was down about 17.4% from the end of September, which was where I had peaked.

And, when I look at my numbers for the year, things don't look so scary. For 2018 as a whole, I'm down about 11.5%. This has also been a good lesson in the old adage of focusing on the percentages, rather than actual dollar amounts. That 11.5% translates into a larger $ amount than what I lost back in 2008! But, percentage-wise, I lost about 42%, back then...
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Old 12-26-2018, 03:02 PM   #140
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I don’t believe there is any duration requirement.
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