Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
I was more or less happy with the return
Old 07-19-2012, 09:27 PM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,905
I was more or less happy with the return

I've had since my retirement on 1/1/2003 - 7.8% on an annualized basis according to Quicken. Then I made the mistake of calculating the same number from about the last time that I think that the universe was all aligned and the future looked very very rosy say 1/1/2000- That s when I decided that early ER was really in the cards for me - that number is 3.3 % I guess this is another direct confirmation that the 4% might be a bit optimistic at present.

I don't even want to look at what my inflation adjusted return might be from 1/1/2000. On the other hand, life goes on and I wouldn't want to go back to the stress of pre ER times. There is food on the table, a (paid for) roof over our heads, we are doing what we want and enjoying it, reasonable health - not much more one could ask for (well, maybe another couple of % return without inflation would be nice...).

But if I'had known in 2000 that my portfolio return for the next dozen years was going to be in the neighborhood of 3% I would have never seriously contemplated early retirement. I would have been too scared. funny how things go.
__________________

__________________
ejman is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 07-19-2012, 09:47 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,405
Yes, the cumulative return for the recent years has not been that great. However, you have been in retirement for 9 years. Next time you feel the urge to run FIRECalc, just remember to run it for a duration of 9 years less than when you did in 2003. That should help the success rate.

Arghhh! That would remind me that I have spent 9 years of my life since then. Arghhh...
__________________

__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 10:11 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,905
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
Yes, the cumulative return for the recent years has not been that great. However, you have been in retirement for 9 years. Next time you feel the urge to run FIRECalc, just remember to run it for a duration of 9 years less than when you did in 2003. That should help the success rate.

Arghhh! That would remind me that I have spent 9 years of my life since then. Arghhh...
Good idea but I'm not sure the statisticians will let me. Let see the life expectancy for a 52 year old male is 27 years which would put me at 79, safely within the 30 year retirement but then life expectancy for a 62 year old is 19 years which would bring me to 81 so they keep changing the goal posts!
__________________
ejman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 10:55 PM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,405
You are right! So, having lived in retirement for 10 years, you have "used up" only 8 years. You have gained 2 statistically "free" years. Looks like cause for celebration to me.

My point is that more as time goes on and I feel my time is running out, the less I worry about running out of money. I'd rather be living with less money than I have now than being dead. One can say that it is easy for me to say, that it is because I have my little stash. But it is really not that important to have more.

Of course, I still want more, but that it is mainly to prove to myself that I "read" the world correctly, and have made the right investments. I most likely would not spend more.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2012, 04:04 AM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
RISP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 307
You still get a positive return while comparing to a point in time when we had reached about the peak valuation level of a ridiculous stock market bubble? That sounds amazing to me.
Quote:
not much more one could ask for
'nuff said. You're doing great.
__________________
RISP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-2012, 08:47 AM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Alberta/Ontario/ Arizona
Posts: 3,139
Retired around 1/1/07 and I figure my total annual return is around 6%. Could be a lot worse I guess. Dividends more than half of this.
__________________
Danmar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-2012, 10:40 AM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Quote:
Originally Posted by ejman View Post
I've had since my retirement on 1/1/2003 - 7.8% on an annualized basis according to Quicken. Then I made the mistake of calculating the same number from about the last time that I think that the universe was all aligned and the future looked very very rosy say 1/1/2000- That s when I decided that early ER was really in the cards for me - that number is 3.3 % I guess this is another direct confirmation that the 4% might be a bit optimistic at present.

I don't even want to look at what my inflation adjusted return might be from 1/1/2000. On the other hand, life goes on and I wouldn't want to go back to the stress of pre ER times. There is food on the table, a (paid for) roof over our heads, we are doing what we want and enjoying it, reasonable health - not much more one could ask for (well, maybe another couple of % return without inflation would be nice...).

But if I'had known in 2000 that my portfolio return for the next dozen years was going to be in the neighborhood of 3% I would have never seriously contemplated early retirement. I would have been too scared. funny how things go.
You can always go back to work.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-2012, 02:11 PM   #8
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,617
Quote:
Originally Posted by ejman View Post
Then I made the mistake of calculating the same number from about the last time that I think that the universe was all aligned and the future looked very very rosy say 1/1/2000- That s when I decided that early ER was really in the cards for me - that number is 3.3 % I guess this is another direct confirmation that the 4% might be a bit optimistic at present.
I don't even want to look at what my inflation adjusted return might be from 1/1/2000.
But if I'had known in 2000 that my portfolio return for the next dozen years was going to be in the neighborhood of 3% I would have never seriously contemplated early retirement. I would have been too scared. funny how things go.
Sounds like a combination of "recency bias" and "loss aversion".

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
You can always go back to work.
Luckily my "work aversion" triumphs the other biases.
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-2012, 04:18 PM   #9
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,905
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
You can always go back to work.
No way I would want to waste any wonderful ER time by going back to the stress of work. I can always trim back my expenses a bit if I need to, make more time not so much...
__________________

__________________
ejman is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:22 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.