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ibbotson 10yr results
Old 12-29-2007, 03:22 AM   #1
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ibbotson 10yr results

10 year results are in from ibbotson ending dec 1. 2007

stocks- wilshire 5000 6.6% and bonds -(lehman aggregate index) 6.3 %, 90 day treasuries 3.7%. looks like stocks were a far cry from the over 10% we were used to getting. looks like over a 10 year cycle bonds did very well even with those crappy returns of the early 2000's.
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Old 12-29-2007, 11:30 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
10 year results are in from ibbotson ending dec 1. 2007

stocks- wilshire 5000 6.6% and bonds -(lehman aggregate index) 6.3 %, 90 day treasuries 3.7%. looks like stocks were a far cry from the over 10% we were used to getting. looks like over a 10 year cycle bonds did very well even with those crappy returns of the early 2000's.
Can you imagine what people would have said back in 1997 if you predicted that the Wilshire 5000 would return only 6.6% over the following 10 years?

It appears that the much-maligned Professor Robert Shiller was not off by much.

Next question- what will the Wilshire 5000 return over the next 10 years?

Ha
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Old 12-29-2007, 11:45 AM   #3
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Was that with dividends reinvested?
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Old 12-29-2007, 11:55 AM   #4
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10 year results are in from ibbotson ending dec 1. 2007
Since the 2000-2003 down years are included in these years, the results are not surprising.

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over 10% we were used to getting.
Good point. The lesson learned here should be: Don't get excited about ST returns or you will be disappointed.
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Old 12-29-2007, 12:00 PM   #5
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Since the 2000-2003 down years are included in these years, the results are not surprising.
Why not? The assumed 10% stock return is not advertised as being from up years only. This 6.6 % fgure also includes almost all of the biggest stock market bubble in US history.

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The lesson learned here should be: Don't get excited about ST returns or you will be disappointed.
And is 10 years "short term"? How many people do you think assume that it is?

Ha
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Old 12-29-2007, 12:43 PM   #6
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Can you imagine what people would have said back in 1997 if you predicted that the Wilshire 5000 would return only 6.6% over the following 10 years?

It appears that the much-maligned Professor Robert Shiller was not off by much.

Next question- what will the Wilshire 5000 return over the next 10 years?
I could have predicted it if I had thought about it. I had to start over from negative net worth in 1998 due to a crummy divorce, so I climbed out of that hole and built everything I have in the past 10 years. So, OF COURSE returns stank. You just don't know how bad my luck is.

As for the next 10 years, well, I am planning ER for 2009. So, what does that tell you? I would say that returns will be even lower, since the first 10 years of ER are considered to be critical.



That's OK. Knowledge is power, and since I know that my luck tends to be terrible, I decided not to rely on luck. I have back-up plans out the wazoo. I can always use another back-up plan, though, and have been keeping an eye out for more of them and for possible chinks in the armor of my ER planning.
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