Originally Posted by haha
Can you imagine what people would have said back in 1997 if you predicted that the Wilshire 5000 would return only 6.6% over the following 10 years?
It appears that the much-maligned Professor Robert Shiller was not off by much.
Next question- what will the Wilshire 5000 return over the next 10 years?
I could have predicted it if I had thought about it. I had to start over from negative net worth in 1998 due to a crummy divorce, so I climbed out of that hole and built everything I have in the past 10 years. So, OF COURSE returns stank. You just don't know how bad my luck is.
As for the next 10 years, well, I am planning ER for 2009. So, what does that tell you? I would say that returns will be even lower, since the first 10 years of ER are considered to be critical.
That's OK. Knowledge is power, and since I know that my luck tends to be terrible, I decided not to rely on luck. I have back-up plans out the wazoo. I can always use another back-up plan, though, and have been keeping an eye out for more of them and for possible chinks in the armor of my ER planning.