|
|
I'm guessing we get a bounce here.
03-16-2011, 06:30 PM
|
#1
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
|
I'm guessing we get a bounce here.
I'm guessing we get a bounce here - S&P to 1290 maybe and then the decline continues.
VIX bottom, S&P top
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
03-16-2011, 06:33 PM
|
#2
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,072
|
If I made a prediction, it would indeed be a guess.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
|
|
|
03-16-2011, 06:58 PM
|
#3
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 655
|
Once the nuclear power plant problem in Japan is resolved the bull market will continue until the end of 2011. At least, that is my crystal ball reading.
__________________
"I went to the woods because I wished to live deliberately... and not, when I came to die, discover that I had not lived."
--Henry David Thoreau
|
|
|
03-16-2011, 07:03 PM
|
#4
|
gone traveling
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,864
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Retire Soon
Once the nuclear power plant problem in Japan is resolved the bull market will continue until the end of 2011. At least, that is my crystal ball reading.
|
I like your scenario better, RetireSoon. (Sorry, Dex.)
Now if W2R can just keep her thoughts to herself...
|
|
|
03-16-2011, 07:07 PM
|
#5
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,501
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Westernskies
I like your scenario better, RetireSoon. (Sorry, Dex.)
Now if W2R can just keep her thoughts to herself...
|
I promise, I promise, not a word....
(I like RetireSoon's scenario, too....)
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
|
|
|
03-16-2011, 07:12 PM
|
#6
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,698
|
Not to worry Dex, when you are all cash you are safe. You don't have to guess any longer.
__________________
Work is something you do to get enough $ so you don't have to....Me.
|
|
|
03-16-2011, 07:15 PM
|
#7
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Retire Soon
Once the nuclear power plant problem in Japan is resolved the bull market will continue until the end of 2011. At least, that is my crystal ball reading.
|
There are other headwinds
- How deep with this move be? That could scare a lot of people out.
- Bahrain and Saudi Arabia protests
- Libya
- Oil Prices
- End of QE2
- European sovereign debt
- Sell in May and go away?
- 10 years since 9/11?
The 3rd year of a president's term is supposed to be very good for the stock market. If it isn't what does that mean for 2012?
Looking to year 3 of presidential cycle Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch
If the dollar starts to significantly strengthen - Kattie bar the door!
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
|
|
|
03-16-2011, 07:34 PM
|
#8
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 1,688
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by dex
There are other headwinds
- How deep with this move be? That could scare a lot of people out.
- Bahrain and Saudi Arabia protests
- Libya
- Oil Prices
- End of QE2
- Sell in May and go away?
- 10 years since 9/11?
The 3rd year of a president's term is supposed to be very good for the stock market. If it isn't what does that mean for 2012?
Looking to year 3 of presidential cycle Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch
If the dollar starts to significantly strengthen - Kattie bar the door!
|
All of these are widely known and, if you believe in the efficiency (as opposed to rationality which is an entirely different issue) of markets, should already be priced into the markets. Then again, there will no doubt be a divergence of views as to the eventual outcome of each of these issues. To pick one as an example, some people may be betting on the problems in the Middle East getting worse and others that they will be resolved without any major disruption to oil supplies or regional conflict.
And, of course, there are the "unkown unknowns".
So I have no idea what the markets will do in the near term. What I do feel comfortable with is believing that (i) even if it dips first, the global economy will sooner or later resume growing and corporates will benefit from that and (ii) I am finding reasonable to good value in the local stock market (which is 11% off its 52 week high).
__________________
Budgeting is a skill practised by people who are bad at politics.
|
|
|
03-16-2011, 07:58 PM
|
#9
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by traineeinvestor
All of these are widely known and, if you believe in the efficiency (as opposed to rationality which is an entirely different issue) of markets, should already be priced into the markets.
|
I don't. And if anyone knows that al-Qaeda will commit a terrorist act in the USA on 9/11/11 they should speak up now and not keep quiet and incorporate that information in to their stock market investments.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
|
|
|
03-16-2011, 09:13 PM
|
#10
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 1,688
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by dex
I don't. And if anyone knows that al-Qaeda will commit a terrorist act in the USA on 9/11/11 they should speak up now and not keep quiet and incorporate that information in to their stock market investments.
|
I tend to view markets as being somewhat efficient (but well short of perfect) in terms of disseminating publically available information which is relevant to determining prices and at matching buyers and sellers. In other respects I do not believe that markets are very efficient at all.
Also, even if markets were perfectly efficient in all respects (which they are not) efficiency does not imply (i) that markets are rational (they're not) or (ii) that perfectly efficient markets would result in all market participants forming identical views as to the relevance of available information or (iii) that known information would enable us to predict future price movements (today's market prices are at least partly a function of future expectations which, by definition, cannot be known).
As a side note, if markets "hate uncertainty", should it follow that we, as investors, should equate uncertainty with opportunity?
__________________
Budgeting is a skill practised by people who are bad at politics.
|
|
|
03-16-2011, 09:38 PM
|
#11
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by traineeinvestor
I tend to view markets as being somewhat efficient (but well short of perfect) in terms of disseminating publically available information which is relevant to determining prices and at matching buyers and sellers. In other respects I do not believe that markets are very efficient at all.
Also, even if markets were perfectly efficient in all respects (which they are not) efficiency does not imply (i) that markets are rational (they're not) or (ii) that perfectly efficient markets would result in all market participants forming identical views as to the relevance of available information or (iii) that known information would enable us to predict future price movements (today's market prices are at least partly a function of future expectations which, by definition, cannot be known).
|
I think the key aspect of the theory i.e. the market is aware of information and incorporates it into the stock price - one way or another - is flawed or at best unprovable. Think of the number of people that are working, know the 'information' but regardless continue to make regular monthly purchases. Or, those just adjust their Asset Allocation regardless of the 'information'
Compared to the total number of shares outstanding, it takes very few to move the stock market.
Should "investor" be trader?
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
|
|
|
03-17-2011, 01:19 AM
|
#12
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
|
For those of you with a sufficiently long term horizon, today's market is indeed a buying opportunity.*
*Unless it is actually the beginning of the next stage in the generation long secular bear market.
|
|
|
03-17-2011, 03:45 AM
|
#13
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 1,688
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by dex
I think the key aspect of the theory i.e. the market is aware of information and incorporates it into the stock price - one way or another - is flawed or at best unprovable. Think of the number of people that are working, know the 'information' but regardless continue to make regular monthly purchases. Or, those just adjust their Asset Allocation regardless of the 'information'
Compared to the total number of shares outstanding, it takes very few to move the stock market.
Should "investor" be trader?
|
I agree completely with respect to the flaws in the theory (hence my heavily qualified statement about the extent of the efficiency of financial markets) and the distinction between efficiency and rationality.
Whether there is a difference between "investor", "trader", "speculator" and "gambler" is a semantic question. I ceased to view the distinction as meaningful long ago - at about the same time that a succession of salesmen tried to convince me about the alleged merits of term life as an investment.
__________________
Budgeting is a skill practised by people who are bad at politics.
|
|
|
03-17-2011, 03:46 AM
|
#14
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 1,688
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp
For those of you with a sufficiently long term horizon, today's market is indeed a buying opportunity.*
*Unless it is actually the beginning of the next stage in the generation long secular bear market.
|
Or you believe in the Mayan calender.
__________________
Budgeting is a skill practised by people who are bad at politics.
|
|
|
03-17-2011, 05:22 AM
|
#15
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by traineeinvestor
Or you believe in the Mayan calender.
|
So maybe the selling is because all of the believers of the Mayan calendar are looking at the situation in Japan as a warning and figuring this is there last chance to spend 300K+ a year.
Is that enough thread references in one paragraph?
|
|
|
03-17-2011, 06:32 AM
|
#16
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 11,331
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp
So maybe the selling is because all of the believers of the Mayan calendar are looking at the situation in Japan as a warning and figuring this is there last chance to spend 300K+ a year.
Is that enough thread references in one paragraph?
|
We should push that idea - a stimulus without deficit
__________________
Idleness is fatal only to the mediocre -- Albert Camus
|
|
|
03-17-2011, 07:34 AM
|
#17
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp
So maybe the selling is because all of the believers of the Mayan calendar are looking at the situation in Japan as a warning and figuring this is there last chance to spend 300K+ a year.
Is that enough thread references in one paragraph?
|
Should provide a boost to consumer spending.
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
|
|
|
03-17-2011, 07:57 AM
|
#18
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by traineeinvestor
Whether there is a difference between "investor", "trader", "speculator" and "gambler" is a semantic question. I ceased to view the distinction as meaningful long ago - at about the same time that a succession of salesmen tried to convince me about the alleged merits of term life as an investment.
|
That is a good point.
Now if we can get Asset Allocators to admit they are market timers it could be the Age of Aquarius.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
|
|
|
03-17-2011, 08:32 AM
|
#19
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,391
|
Quote:
- J.P Morgan, when asked what the stock market will do, replied,
"It will fluctuate. "
|
|
|
|
03-17-2011, 09:06 AM
|
#20
|
gone traveling
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,864
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp
So maybe the selling is because all of the believers of the Mayan calendar are looking at the situation in Japan as a warning and figuring this is there last chance to spend 300K+ a year on bacon, pancake batter in a can, and one-use-only dryer sheets, after paying off the mortage on their union-pension financed house in Wisconsin, installing a tankless water heater and buying a variable annuity from a relative with a gambling problem. Is that enough thread references in one paragraph?
|
maybe now...
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|