View Poll Results: A known expense is due in 55 days, when would you sell equities to raise the cash?
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Immediately
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36 |
39.56% |
At the last minute
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17 |
18.68% |
I'd watch the markets and wait for the right time
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38 |
41.76% |
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07-14-2015, 09:00 PM
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#41
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,806
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CCdaCE
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I feel the long term trend is down. But, it's just a gut feeling. One I've had for over a year, and have been basically wrong about, apparently.
-CC
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That's how my gut feeling go. But I'm always right... eventually!
-ERD50
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07-15-2015, 08:33 AM
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#42
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Car-Guy
I'm a market timer, but could someone please help me time the market, a lot better?
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Sure, we can help you time the market.
You only need to give 20% of the gain to show your appreciation.
If it doesn't, well, we'll just have to do better next time, OK?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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07-15-2015, 08:48 AM
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#43
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Midwest
Posts: 2,960
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CCdaCE
I feel the long term trend is down. But, it's just a gut feeling. One I've had for over a year, and have been basically wrong about, apparently.
-CC
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Not necessarily. What do you mean by "long term"? Anybody really think the "long term" trend is down? We are already 16 yrs into a generational down/flat market. The second and third largest crashes ever, and back-to-back. Does anybody think we have another 50-60% flush coming up followed by 15-20 more years of essentially no gains?
If you want to talk "gut feelings", and things like "is it different this time"/"It's never different this time", the trajectory of history is actually indicating good times and good returns. Which never announce themselves.
Will they be as good as 1982-1999? That no one can say. But after 16 years of bad stuff, unless it's different this time, beyond the blue horizon lies the rising sun.
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07-15-2015, 09:01 AM
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#44
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 584
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
Well, I would first try to avoid the situation, but sometimes plans do fail.
But I would not use a stop-loss order, for the reasons I mentioned. That would be the last thing I would do (hmmm... no, not even then, I did say "never", and I meant it!). Set them too close, and you really risk normal variation taking you out at a low. Set them too deep, and you don't have that much protection and you still run the risk of selling low on a dip.
This is a kind of forced market timing question, so I might just take a 'gut feel' of how I felt. I don't think OP mentioned a $ figure, but it sounds like a few tens of thousands, it's not like their entire portfolio is at short term risk, just this amount. So it's not life/death. If the market tanked, you'd have to sell a few more shares, maybe more than a few. If I was worried about the market being peaky, I'd either sell now and keep it in cash, or buy puts if they were cheap enough.
You know what, since this type of 'forced sale' is expected to be a very rare occurrence in this scenario (unplanned and all), I think that there would be too few 'spins of the wheel' to consider what a market does on average. So I probably would sell now, or buy puts, just to avoid whatever emotional stress might occur if the market went against me. The difference when you do this each year for normal withdraws, you have many 'spins', so it should average out.
But, just in case I wasn't clear.... .... I would not place a stop-loss order.
-ERD50
PS: no stop-loss orders
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So... I think you're saying you wouldn't use a stop-loss order?
Curious about when you normally sell a stock. Do you specify a sale price or do you just sell at market the moment you decide to sell? Depending on how volatile a stock is, and if it has consistent daily or weekly patterns, I may specify a higher than market price. Often this can result in significant additional gain. A stop loss can protect me from a major decline in that case. Selling covered calls out of the money is similar but longer term. So in a small way I guess I am market timing. I've only been caught at the stop loss twice. Maybe I'm just lucky? Come to think of it, I've only done such things with stocks that were on the upswing. If I thought things were headed down I obviously sold at market right as fast as I could. That said I haven't been an "active" trader for anything but unloading Megacorp shares in about 5 years.
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07-15-2015, 09:09 AM
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#45
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 37,931
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Limit orders are fine for setting the price you are willing to sell at and waiting.
The stop loss order to protect a position is a problem, as there are enough market events, whether flash crashes or otherwise, that cause quick drops and recoveries but can trigger stop losses in the meantime.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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07-15-2015, 03:35 PM
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#46
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 6,255
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
Just don't do it. Really. And here I go, ready for this... "Never use stop orders". There, I said it.
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That is my "go to" theory, also. I don't have any reason for believing it but when periodically tempted, I apply it without question.
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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07-15-2015, 08:23 PM
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#47
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 1,069
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Stop loss orders are the antithesis of what a market maker aims to gain buy maintaining a spread.
Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
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07-16-2015, 04:47 AM
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#48
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gone traveling
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 202
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The stock market has held up VERY well considering Greece and China. Stocks are about to break out to new highs.
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07-16-2015, 05:59 AM
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#49
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ETFs_Rule
The stock market has held up VERY well considering Greece and China. Stocks are about to break out to new highs.
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Which stocks?
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
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07-16-2015, 08:04 AM
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#50
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,669
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky
Which stocks?
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I have them highlited in green in my portfolio.
;>)
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07-16-2015, 08:43 AM
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#51
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 1,188
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I'm not a market timer, but I time my buy/sells very carefully To me this market is pretty tradeable,
1. pick a few dogs or stocks that got too hot, wait till we hit a new high, sell
2. wait for a pullback (because there is always another fire that is going to "crash the market")
3. eventually it will go up one day, don't buy
4. then it will go down again (fear of the sky falling)
5. then it will start going up again (now buy)
6. wait for new high
7. repeat
The only negative is the capital gains...stupid taxes. That seems to be the trend in the market for the last 2 years...and it seems to happen every time... I call it the Chicken Little stock market.
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07-16-2015, 09:06 AM
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#52
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019
I have them highlited in green in my portfolio.
;>)
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Quicken does it for me, and it uses the colors black and red. My problem is I have more red than black.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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07-16-2015, 10:21 AM
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#53
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,669
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Those are lookin' back colors. Green looks forward.
Instead of Quicken, try Ouija...
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07-16-2015, 01:23 PM
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#54
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gone traveling
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 202
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky
Which stocks?
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I don't even follow individual stocks. I invest in the S&P 500 index when it comes to the stock asset class.
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07-17-2015, 05:12 PM
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#55
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ETFs_Rule
I don't even follow individual stocks. I invest in the S&P 500 index when it comes to the stock asset class.
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it has reached the 52 week-high of 1,820 for some time already.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
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07-21-2015, 08:03 PM
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#56
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 897
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Quote:
Originally Posted by razztazz
Not necessarily. What do you mean by "long term"? Anybody really think the "long term" trend is down? We are already 16 yrs into a generational down/flat market. The second and third largest crashes ever, and back-to-back. Does anybody think we have another 50-60% flush coming up followed by 15-20 more years of essentially no gains?
If you want to talk "gut feelings", and things like "is it different this time"/"It's never different this time", the trajectory of history is actually indicating good times and good returns. Which never announce themselves.
Will they be as good as 1982-1999? That no one can say. But after 16 years of bad stuff, unless it's different this time, beyond the blue horizon lies the rising sun.
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I just can't get away from the P/E thing. Seemingly overvalued for so long... has to come back to earth some time. Whether it'll take 4 mos. or 4 years, I have no clue.
-CC
__________________
"There's those thinkin' more or less, less is more, but if less is more, how you keepin' score?
It means for every point you make, your level drops. Kinda like you're startin' from the top..." "Society" - Eddie Vedder
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07-21-2015, 08:16 PM
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#57
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gone traveling
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 202
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky
it has reached the 52 week-high of 1,820 for some time already.
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So what? Stocks hit a new high every 17 days on average. And if you're diversified (into bonds) then you don't worry about the stock market if you think it's over valued.
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