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View Poll Results: A known expense is due in 55 days, when would you sell equities to raise the cash?
Immediately 36 39.56%
At the last minute 17 18.68%
I'd watch the markets and wait for the right time 38 41.76%
Voters: 91. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-14-2015, 10:00 PM   #41
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...

I feel the long term trend is down. But, it's just a gut feeling. One I've had for over a year, and have been basically wrong about, apparently.

-CC
That's how my gut feeling go. But I'm always right... eventually!

-ERD50
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Old 07-15-2015, 09:33 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by Car-Guy View Post
I'm a market timer, but could someone please help me time the market, a lot better?
Sure, we can help you time the market.

You only need to give 20% of the gain to show your appreciation.

If it doesn't, well, we'll just have to do better next time, OK?
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Old 07-15-2015, 09:48 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by CCdaCE View Post
I feel the long term trend is down. But, it's just a gut feeling. One I've had for over a year, and have been basically wrong about, apparently.

-CC
Not necessarily. What do you mean by "long term"? Anybody really think the "long term" trend is down? We are already 16 yrs into a generational down/flat market. The second and third largest crashes ever, and back-to-back. Does anybody think we have another 50-60% flush coming up followed by 15-20 more years of essentially no gains?

If you want to talk "gut feelings", and things like "is it different this time"/"It's never different this time", the trajectory of history is actually indicating good times and good returns. Which never announce themselves.

Will they be as good as 1982-1999? That no one can say. But after 16 years of bad stuff, unless it's different this time, beyond the blue horizon lies the rising sun.
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Old 07-15-2015, 10:01 AM   #44
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Well, I would first try to avoid the situation, but sometimes plans do fail.

But I would not use a stop-loss order, for the reasons I mentioned. That would be the last thing I would do (hmmm... no, not even then, I did say "never", and I meant it!). Set them too close, and you really risk normal variation taking you out at a low. Set them too deep, and you don't have that much protection and you still run the risk of selling low on a dip.

This is a kind of forced market timing question, so I might just take a 'gut feel' of how I felt. I don't think OP mentioned a $ figure, but it sounds like a few tens of thousands, it's not like their entire portfolio is at short term risk, just this amount. So it's not life/death. If the market tanked, you'd have to sell a few more shares, maybe more than a few. If I was worried about the market being peaky, I'd either sell now and keep it in cash, or buy puts if they were cheap enough.

You know what, since this type of 'forced sale' is expected to be a very rare occurrence in this scenario (unplanned and all), I think that there would be too few 'spins of the wheel' to consider what a market does on average. So I probably would sell now, or buy puts, just to avoid whatever emotional stress might occur if the market went against me. The difference when you do this each year for normal withdraws, you have many 'spins', so it should average out.

But, just in case I wasn't clear.... .... I would not place a stop-loss order.


-ERD50

PS: no stop-loss orders
So... I think you're saying you wouldn't use a stop-loss order?

Curious about when you normally sell a stock. Do you specify a sale price or do you just sell at market the moment you decide to sell? Depending on how volatile a stock is, and if it has consistent daily or weekly patterns, I may specify a higher than market price. Often this can result in significant additional gain. A stop loss can protect me from a major decline in that case. Selling covered calls out of the money is similar but longer term. So in a small way I guess I am market timing. I've only been caught at the stop loss twice. Maybe I'm just lucky? Come to think of it, I've only done such things with stocks that were on the upswing. If I thought things were headed down I obviously sold at market right as fast as I could. That said I haven't been an "active" trader for anything but unloading Megacorp shares in about 5 years.
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Old 07-15-2015, 10:09 AM   #45
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Limit orders are fine for setting the price you are willing to sell at and waiting.

The stop loss order to protect a position is a problem, as there are enough market events, whether flash crashes or otherwise, that cause quick drops and recoveries but can trigger stop losses in the meantime.
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Old 07-15-2015, 04:35 PM   #46
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Just don't do it. Really. And here I go, ready for this... "Never use stop orders". There, I said it.
That is my "go to" theory, also. I don't have any reason for believing it but when periodically tempted, I apply it without question.
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Old 07-15-2015, 09:23 PM   #47
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Stop loss orders are the antithesis of what a market maker aims to gain buy maintaining a spread.


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Old 07-16-2015, 05:47 AM   #48
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The stock market has held up VERY well considering Greece and China. Stocks are about to break out to new highs.
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Old 07-16-2015, 06:59 AM   #49
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The stock market has held up VERY well considering Greece and China. Stocks are about to break out to new highs.
Which stocks?
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Old 07-16-2015, 09:04 AM   #50
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Which stocks?

I have them highlited in green in my portfolio.
;>)
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Old 07-16-2015, 09:43 AM   #51
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I'm not a market timer, but I time my buy/sells very carefully To me this market is pretty tradeable,
1. pick a few dogs or stocks that got too hot, wait till we hit a new high, sell
2. wait for a pullback (because there is always another fire that is going to "crash the market")
3. eventually it will go up one day, don't buy
4. then it will go down again (fear of the sky falling)
5. then it will start going up again (now buy)
6. wait for new high
7. repeat


The only negative is the capital gains...stupid taxes. That seems to be the trend in the market for the last 2 years...and it seems to happen every time... I call it the Chicken Little stock market.
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Old 07-16-2015, 10:06 AM   #52
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I have them highlited in green in my portfolio.
;>)
Quicken does it for me, and it uses the colors black and red. My problem is I have more red than black.
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Old 07-16-2015, 11:21 AM   #53
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Quicken does it for me, and it uses the colors black and red. My problem is I have more red than black.
Those are lookin' back colors. Green looks forward.

Instead of Quicken, try Ouija...
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Old 07-16-2015, 02:23 PM   #54
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Which stocks?
I don't even follow individual stocks. I invest in the S&P 500 index when it comes to the stock asset class.
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Old 07-17-2015, 06:12 PM   #55
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I don't even follow individual stocks. I invest in the S&P 500 index when it comes to the stock asset class.
it has reached the 52 week-high of 1,820 for some time already.
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Old 07-21-2015, 09:03 PM   #56
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Not necessarily. What do you mean by "long term"? Anybody really think the "long term" trend is down? We are already 16 yrs into a generational down/flat market. The second and third largest crashes ever, and back-to-back. Does anybody think we have another 50-60% flush coming up followed by 15-20 more years of essentially no gains?

If you want to talk "gut feelings", and things like "is it different this time"/"It's never different this time", the trajectory of history is actually indicating good times and good returns. Which never announce themselves.

Will they be as good as 1982-1999? That no one can say. But after 16 years of bad stuff, unless it's different this time, beyond the blue horizon lies the rising sun.
I just can't get away from the P/E thing. Seemingly overvalued for so long... has to come back to earth some time. Whether it'll take 4 mos. or 4 years, I have no clue.

-CC
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Old 07-21-2015, 09:16 PM   #57
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it has reached the 52 week-high of 1,820 for some time already.
So what? Stocks hit a new high every 17 days on average. And if you're diversified (into bonds) then you don't worry about the stock market if you think it's over valued.
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