Join Early Retirement Today
View Poll Results: A known expense is due in 55 days, when would you sell equities to raise the cash?
Immediately 36 39.56%
At the last minute 17 18.68%
I'd watch the markets and wait for the right time 38 41.76%
Voters: 91. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
I'm not a market timer, but...
Old 07-10-2015, 05:41 PM   #1
Full time employment: Posting here.
jjquantz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 926
I'm not a market timer, but...

As some of you may have read, we just replaced our AC and Furnace and we are also underwriting most of DD's wedding this summer. This will exhaust our cash cushion before the end of the year comes around with the usual refill. When I paid the AC bill yesterday, I remarked that the timing was perfect, I just hit the first day of the new billing cycle on my CC. So the question is:

If you have an known expense due in 55 days and need to liquidate some of your equity positions to pay it, when would you sell?
jjquantz is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 07-10-2015, 06:13 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
A poll about something very applicable to my own situation. My bill is more than $12K, and I have 6 months to get the cash. As a self-proclaimed market timer, of course I vote accordingly.

PS. The truth is if the market keeps on tanking, I will more likely dip into my cash hoard, ie. I-bonds, rather than be selling stock low.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)

"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2015, 06:24 PM   #3
Moderator
Walt34's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Eastern WV Panhandle
Posts: 25,290
In that situation, with the recent "sort of" settlement with Greece, I'd bet on market going up at least for a short time and sell in a few weeks.

But for myself I'd have raised the cash 6+ months ago for the wedding and had enough in the "stuff happens" fund for the A/C.
__________________
When I was a kid I wanted to be older. This is not what I expected.
Walt34 is offline   Reply With Quote
I'm not a market timer, but...
Old 07-10-2015, 06:30 PM   #4
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,890
I'm not a market timer, but...

The third option sounds good on paper, but the "right time" will only be evident in hindsight. If I knew that I needed the money for sure in 55 days, I'd sell now.
FIREd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2015, 07:11 PM   #5
Full time employment: Posting here.
jjquantz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 926
Quote:
Originally Posted by Walt34 View Post
But for myself I'd have raised the cash 6+ months ago for the wedding and had enough in the "stuff happens" fund for the A/C.
Yeah, that was the original plan. With DW still working I was playing the "stuff happens" fund a little too close to the vest figuring that "most stuff" could have been handled through cash flow until the next rebalance at the first of the year. Wedding costs have needed to be fronted to the kids a little earlier than planned, DW's take home pay was notched down a bit in adjusting withholding for taxes, and that was a result of the tax bill in April being just a little larger than expected. With my lumpy part time gig income, it's actually more that the timing was wrong rather than the income not being there over the course of the year. I could, God forbid, pay interest on the CC for a couple of months until things balance out.

I figure it's all part of figuring out the details of the cash flow situation in my first year of retirement.

The new plan is that the equity cash out will also fill up the "stuff happens" bucket to where I should have had it.

Next year will be better with one year of experience.
jjquantz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2015, 07:20 PM   #6
Recycles dryer sheets
jetpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 437
Id try to plan better so I don't need to sell things you want. To get more cash, you can turn off auto reinvest on mutual funds. If I had to sell stuff, I'd pick those with loses (depending on tax situation).


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
jetpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2015, 07:24 PM   #7
Moderator
Walt34's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Eastern WV Panhandle
Posts: 25,290
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjquantz View Post
Next year will be better with one year of experience.
Understood, I had that experience myself. Did you know that brand new houses do not come with curtains or blinds on any of the windows?
__________________
When I was a kid I wanted to be older. This is not what I expected.
Walt34 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2015, 08:45 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 10,252
We pay for college from the portfolio. There is no doubt that we cash in something about 4 days before payment is due. That gives 3 days to settle the trade and one day to ACH transfer the money into checking.

And by "payment is due" that means paying off the credit card bill since we charge college expenses to a 2% cashback card (and the college charges no extra fees for that as well), so that reduces college expenses by 2%.
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2015, 08:52 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
MRG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 11,078
Quote:
Originally Posted by Walt34 View Post
Understood, I had that experience myself. Did you know that brand new houses do not come with curtains or blinds on any of the windows?
What about yard, landscaping, storm doors, and all the rest of the missing stuff? Almost glad I was still w*rking during that time.
MRG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2015, 09:30 PM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,194
Quote:
Originally Posted by Walt34 View Post

But for myself I'd have raised the cash 6+ months ago for the wedding and had enough in the "stuff happens" fund for the A/C.

+whatever the next number is....
Texas Proud is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2015, 04:51 AM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 37,931
None of the above.

I don't like to sell assets from the retirement fund during the year to pay for current expenses. I take a withdrawal each Jan which will cover the whole year, and I have cash set aside for those one off items that exceed the normal budget plus unexpected expenses. I don't have to worry about cash flow in the short term.

As for selling stuff, sell whatever is up the most YTD assuming you were rebalanced at the start of the year. As for when, Lord only knows. It really doesn't matter.

Do you have to sell specifically from equities?
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2015, 06:05 AM   #12
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,518
I dislike selling equities during the year if not part of a reallocation scheme and would take from fixed income. Will the equity sale create an unplanned tax liability?
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2015, 07:07 AM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 1,644
I sell monthly for the next month. Whichever is out of balance compared to target equity/fixed.
jebmke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2015, 07:35 AM   #14
Full time employment: Posting here.
hesperus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: https://www.google.com
Posts: 750
Send a message via ICQ to hesperus Send a message via AIM to hesperus Send a message via Yahoo to hesperus
None of the above.
We keep a large cash cushion so we don't have to sell equities, except for rebalancing.
hesperus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2015, 07:53 AM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,806
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
None of the above.

I don't like to sell assets from the retirement fund during the year to pay for current expenses. I take a withdrawal each Jan ....
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
I dislike selling equities during the year ...
What is special about a specific calendar date?


Since I don't know which way the market will go over the course of any given year, it seems to me it makes no difference when I decide to sell. Only hindsight will tell me that.

I didn't vote in the poll, my selection would have been, whenever.

I don't know if the market will be higher "Immediately" or "At the last minute", so I have no basis to pick between them. And if I "watch the markets and wait for the right time", how do I know what the "right time" is?

"I'm not a market timer, but..." really?

I just don't think you can time this over a 55 day period. Now, if you were talking about some permanent sell off (I guess this counts), and never planned to adjust your AA back to the previous level, I think something like the Schiller PE10 could provide some guidance as to the relative level of the stock market, and probably give some clues as to relatively good/bad times to sell. But that is a long term indicator.


edit/add: Hah! I just looked at the poll results, we have a bunch (largest group so far) of Dirty Market Timers here! Who knew!

-ERD50
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2015, 02:32 PM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Sunset's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 16,973
Over a 55 day period, you are pretty well helpless. But if I know I'll need a big chunk of cash say 15K or more in about a year, I'll watch the market carefully.

If its really low... I'll wait... if it goes up near its 52 wk high, I'll sell and put the cash in an interest bearing account.

Yes it's market timing, but I do that when I shop at the grocery store as well, I will refuse to buy chicken if the price jumps to $10/lb , but I'll easily buy it at $1/lb.

Everyone market times in various ways on lots of things, otherwise they overpay often.

I do feel like a Dirty Old Market Timer
Sunset is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2015, 02:44 PM   #17
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
Nah, I attempt to time the market all the time, and feel whistle clean as long as I take a shower daily.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)

"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2015, 02:50 PM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,194
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post


edit/add: Hah! I just looked at the poll results, we have a bunch (largest group so far) of Dirty Market Timers here! Who knew!

-ERD50

Well, as an example I sold a bit in the past week... I thought I had put in my orders to sell last Friday, but missed a couple by seconds... so I sold on the big down Monday...

If I had known, I would not have sold on Monday.... hoping that it was a short term drop and I would get that extra 1 or 2%....

The timing cost me a couple hundred bucks, so not any big deal.... but yea, I would not knowingly have sold that day...
Texas Proud is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2015, 05:24 PM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 37,931
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
What is special about a specific calendar date?

Since I don't know which way the market will go over the course of any given year, it seems to me it makes no difference when I decide to sell. Only hindsight will tell me that.

-ERD50
Purely logistics. Early Jan is a good time for me to withdraw and rebalance because I have a large number of MF distributions by then, and it's the start of a new tax year and a new budget year. So that date is convenient for managing my portfolio and cash flow. All my calcs - withdrawal, AA, rebalancing - are based on the Dec 31 portfolio value.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2015, 06:00 PM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,806
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Purely logistics. Early Jan is a good time for me to withdraw and rebalance because I have a large number of MF distributions by then, and it's the start of a new tax year and a new budget year. So that date is convenient for managing my portfolio and cash flow. All my calcs - withdrawal, AA, rebalancing - are based on the Dec 31 portfolio value.
Oh, I understand the inconvenience/logistics of it. Hey, ya gotta do it sometime, Jan sounds as good a time as any. You've got your year-end statements, you probably can't do much on taxes yet, so why not?

I just didn't see how that fit in with the OP question, like if he didn't do it in Jan he shouldn't now, or what?

My thought process is, on average I expect the markets to go up, so I might as well wait until my cash buffer is low before refilling. But lots of other ways work as well.

-ERD50
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Hussman Funds- Dirty Market Timer Lives wallygator69 FIRE and Money 10 07-11-2012 09:27 AM
Dirty Market Timer Me? 401k growing_older FIRE and Money 10 01-19-2009 06:07 PM
Helpful Advice in Jan 2000 from a Dirty Mkt Timer haha FIRE and Money 0 11-11-2004 12:50 PM
First Timer simplelife Hi, I am... 3 06-29-2004 03:13 PM
Another first-timer bermy Hi, I am... 2 09-02-2002 03:19 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:08 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.