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I'm so relieved...
Old 05-09-2008, 08:29 PM   #1
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I'm so relieved...

Facts show we're not in a recession or bear market.

Interesting look at perception vs. reality.
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Old 05-09-2008, 10:08 PM   #2
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Facts show we're not in a recession or bear market.

Interesting look at perception vs. reality.
It may not last but my portfolio has risen to late fall of 2007 levels. My natural resource fund keeps me ahead of the prices at the pump so I'm happy with that. So not a perfect environment by any means, but I feel I have been able to keep up or stay ahead of the game. As I said, it may not last.
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Old 05-09-2008, 10:42 PM   #3
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It may not last but my portfolio has risen to late fall of 2007 levels. My natural resource fund keeps me ahead of the prices at the pump so I'm happy with that. So not a perfect environment by any means, but I feel I have been able to keep up or stay ahead of the game. As I said, it may not last.
Same here - - I'm happy with my portfolio's increase during the past three months. I don't use enough gas for the price increase to affect me very much, and I got a 2.99% cost of living increase that helps to soften the increases in food prices.

The predictions of doom were really scaring me more than what was actually happening. They could still turn out to be true, but things have been looking pretty good for the past week or two.
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Old 05-09-2008, 11:48 PM   #4
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Robert Schiller, of the Home Price Index fame, recently suggested that if you're a consumer of energy, you are implicitly short the price of oil and other fuels from an investing perspective, and therefore it's prudent for all investors to be long energy in their portfolios. An interesting and creative viewpoint.

Tom
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Old 05-10-2008, 12:05 AM   #5
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I got a 2.99% cost of living increase that helps to soften the increases in food prices.
W2r, You work for the federal government, no?

Was this COL increase in addition to a regular salary increase? That would certainly make the recent inflation more palatable.
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Old 05-10-2008, 06:37 AM   #6
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W2r, You work for the federal government, no?

Was this COL increase in addition to a regular salary increase? That would certainly make the recent inflation more palatable.
True!

I was referring to the yearly increase that all federal employees got, which I believe is not technically a COL increase but in reality functions as such. On a nationwide average we were given 3.5%, but here in New Orleans we only got 2.99% because New Orleans is in the "Rest of the U.S." category; people in places like D.C., S.F., and Houston got more because of "locality pay".

But, you are right - - I also got a step increase that not everyone would be getting, so overall my salary went up 6.2%, plus I got a substantial cash award for exceptional performance that raised my yearly compensation another percent or two on top of that. Then there is the economic stimulus payment I am expecting, too! Overall, I am doing even better than I indicated.

Basically, I have been very fortunate. Other than some initial sticker shock I am not as seriously impacted by increasing oil and food prices as some people may be.

OH - - and another thing. Yesterday at the grocery store I got the brown rice that I like, that my store was out of last time. So, the rice shortage is not affecting me either. I only got one box, to be a good citizen and not hoard.
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Old 05-10-2008, 09:05 PM   #7
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On a nationwide average we were given 3.5% ... I also got a step increase.
That's nice.
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Old 05-10-2008, 10:24 PM   #8
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On a nationwide average we were given 3.5% ... I also got a step increase.
That's nice.
Sure is! It was great to get the additional step increase and cash performance award this year. The step increase will be my last before ER. It's getting closer!
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Old 05-11-2008, 09:49 AM   #9
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I got my best raise in eight years in 2006; was canned in 2007...
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Old 05-11-2008, 12:34 PM   #10
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"But there's one problem: There's little evidence that we're in either a bear market or a recession, defined, respectively, as a 20% drop in the major stock market averages and two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product growth."

Who defines a "recession" this way?
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Old 05-11-2008, 12:38 PM   #11
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Economists?
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Old 05-11-2008, 12:48 PM   #12
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I got my best raise in eight years in 2006; was canned in 2007...
I got my best paycheck ever in 2000 and ran away in 2001 of my own volition.
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Old 05-11-2008, 12:50 PM   #13
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Who defines a "recession" this way?
There actually are a bunch of definitions for both bear markets and for what amounts to a recession.

Thats the great part of all this stuff. You can choose your own reality.

Oh, and theres plenty of ways to measure GDP too!

I think that if Soros and Buffett both think we're in a recession...that we probably are...
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Old 05-11-2008, 02:29 PM   #14
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Im hoping this thread goes on to discuss inflation and cpi. The various ways to measure inflation.
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