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I'm up 7.9% since the U.S. Presidential Election--who woulda thunk
04-05-2017, 11:08 AM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 479
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I'm up 7.9% since the U.S. Presidential Election--who woulda thunk
Took a snapshot on November 9th and just looked a my personal performance through April 4th 2017. Up 7.9%. Not making a political statement but I'm sure glad I stayed the course vs. a panic attack. I was expecting a downturn of sorts. Asset Allocation is 70/30. Cheers.
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04-05-2017, 11:45 AM
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#2
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Bay Area
Posts: 188
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I'm with you supernova72. Putting aside specific politics, I thought we were headed for a major downward correction in November. But I stayed the course and was "rewarded". Good lesson reinforced!
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04-05-2017, 11:49 AM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 3,502
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So with all the press about the pending doom of the US economy that was certain to follow the election you didn't cash out and stock up on gold and ammo. Me too.
__________________
“No, not rich. I am a poor man with money, which is not the same thing"
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04-05-2017, 11:50 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,298
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Anyone got a Ten Foot Pole ?
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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04-05-2017, 11:53 AM
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#5
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 479
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GravitySucks
So with all the press about the pending doom of the US economy that was certain to follow the election you didn't cash out and stock up on gold and ammo. Me too.
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Ha. No guns buried in the back yard here! I did make a slight strategic change during this timeframe of moving out of bonds to my 401K offered Stable Value fund----but that was more to do with thinking rates would rise and my SV fund returns 2.1%. So I kind of lucked out there.
If I had a nickel for every doomsday story I read about financial collapse I would have ER'd 20 years ago!
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04-05-2017, 11:54 AM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Les Bois
Posts: 5,761
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you know me - I love poles
__________________
You can't be a retirement plan actuary without a retirement plan, otherwise you lose all credibility...
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04-05-2017, 11:57 AM
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#7
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,500
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack
Anyone got a Ten Foot Pole ?
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I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole, but look! I found these on sale:
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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04-05-2017, 12:00 PM
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#8
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,267
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I know, I know, market timing is dirty, but at this point isn't the P/E ratio getting scary? I'm happy for the returns, but over the last 18 months the market has really been on a tear.
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04-05-2017, 12:04 PM
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#9
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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Quote:
Originally Posted by laurence
I know, I know, market timing is dirty, but at this point isn't the P/E ratio getting scary?
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I'm not scared. Your mileage may vary.
Quote:
I'm happy for the returns, but over the last 18 months the market has really been on a tear.
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I can't remember how long I've been hearing "the P/E ratio is too high", "we are overdue for a crash", "time to cash out". It's certainly been at least 5 years.
Stay the course, or change your asset allocation until you are comfortable for the long haul. Ignore the noise.
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04-05-2017, 12:06 PM
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#10
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 479
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Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R
I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole, but look! I found these on sale:
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That's a good one. Last time I saw a pole that tall someone was swinging from it...Ha. Reno NV 2013.
__________________
57 now ER'd at 55 (Megacorp 31 yrs). Still figuring out *retirement*. Company pension and 70/30 asset mix. New to the ER game....
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04-05-2017, 12:12 PM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Acworth
Posts: 1,214
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Quote:
Originally Posted by laurence
I know, I know, market timing is dirty, but at this point isn't the P/E ratio getting scary? I'm happy for the returns, but over the last 18 months the market has really been on a tear.
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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" is a great saying.
Then there's data, like 6 consecutive years with P/E ratios of the market of 24 or higher (late 90's to tech bubble, we're around 26-27 currently) which says trying to time it based on P/E doesn't look like a good idea. Or the fact that just because average historic P/E ratios are lower than current ratios doesn't mean that 50 years from now the average historic P/E ratios won't be higher than today's P/E ratio.
CAPE is an even more flawed way to try and determine if the market is overvalued imo.
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04-05-2017, 12:17 PM
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#12
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,706
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Quote:
Originally Posted by exnavynuke
CAPE is an even more flawed way to try and determine if the market is overvalued imo.
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Shiller PE10 is a pretty effective way to estimate future returns. It sheds no light on volatility, which matters, or timing, which also matters.
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04-05-2017, 12:18 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,887
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Quote:
Originally Posted by laurence
I know, I know, market timing is dirty, but at this point isn't the P/E ratio getting scary? ....
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It would be interesting do do a search on this, but it seems to me some established members of this forum have been calling out the high P/E ratio for 4-5 years now? I'm sure they will be right someday, but what do they miss in the interim?
I'm always reminded that I knew the market was getting way over-valued in the 90's big bull run, and I was right. However, I was fully convinced of that by 1997, and the market still had a big rise left in it, and it didn't drop near that point until March 2009 (look at total return, not just NAV). How would I pick a place to get back in? I'd have to be prescient/lucky to pick March 2009 exactly. Maybe I'd still be out? Maybe I'd get back in at a higher point (sell low - buy high)?
I would have missed:
1997 - 33.36%
1998 - 28.58%
1999 - 21.04%
Nope, I'm staying the course as well.
-ERD50
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04-05-2017, 12:22 PM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 3,502
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I will admit to planning on buying another rung to the bond ladder using the recent gains in the equities portion of the portfolio, but I'll lie to myself calling it rebalancing instead of market timing.
__________________
“No, not rich. I am a poor man with money, which is not the same thing"
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04-05-2017, 01:18 PM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Reno
Posts: 1,338
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I may skim gains past this years 4.4% into an intermediate treasury bond fund (I am underallocated to this area), as insurance against a slump, which would move my allocation towards the minimum stock percentage. If the market drops 10%, I usually invest cash or some bond funds back into stocks. I have a 6% range for stocks before triggering a rebalance but when the market is on a prolonged tear, I often do some rebalancing before the trigger is hit. Sometimes the market can go up faster than I can rebalance since I don't like to do it more than once or twice a year. (I haven't done anything the last two years).
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04-05-2017, 01:42 PM
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#16
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GravitySucks
I will admit to planning on buying another rung to the bond ladder using the recent gains in the equities portion of the portfolio, but I'll lie to myself calling it rebalancing instead of market timing.
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Whatever it takes to be able to sleep at night...
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04-05-2017, 03:29 PM
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#17
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,901
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Net worth is up yuge since November.
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04-05-2017, 03:54 PM
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#18
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREd
Net worth is up yuge since November.
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Bigly!
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04-05-2017, 04:03 PM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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I consider this a collective "Wh***" thread. Tomorrow, I will start selling covered calls more actively.
Selling covered calls is for cowardly bears, which I am one.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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04-05-2017, 04:17 PM
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#20
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Acworth
Posts: 1,214
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
Shiller PE10 is a pretty effective way to estimate future returns. It sheds no light on volatility, which matters, or timing, which also matters.
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I think it's less effective when "outlier" years are present (such as right now where the outlier "great recession" is still part of it). Given the equivalent market conditions 2 years from now, the PE10 would look a lot more attractive right?
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