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Old 11-07-2014, 03:32 PM   #21
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The dividend yield of our 100% equity portfolio would cover our expenses and it grows much faster then inflation.

So I don't really care about FIREcalc.

I'm another one that hasn't touched the FIREcalc. I figure if I have been spending below the income that my pension/RE income/dividends will be for the last several years, then I will be good to go.
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Income If You Retire Today
Old 11-07-2014, 03:58 PM   #22
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Income If You Retire Today

The intent here was NOT to get a gauge on if one feels safe at their own spending levels. It was to get an idea of retirement income levels at various ages.

For example:

Income, Age, Retirement Status

$67,000, Age 47, Not Retired

Or since this is gauche maybe:
$100k+, Age 53, Retired


We could all then take a look at the answers and say:
-I'm right about where most everyone else is
-oh my goodness I need to retire already
- or maybe I'll hold off on retiring a little bit more.
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Old 11-07-2014, 04:34 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by RetireAge50 View Post
The intent here was NOT to get a gauge on if one feels safe at their own spending levels. It was to get an idea of retirement income levels at various ages.

For example:

Income, Age, Retirement Status

$67,000, Age 47, Not Retired

Or since this is gauche maybe:
$100k+, Age 53, Retired


We could all then take a look at the answers and say:
-I'm right about where most everyone else is
-oh my goodness I need to retire already
- or maybe I'll hold off on retiring a little bit more.
Is it gauche if I tell you this: $100K+, Age 58, retired?

FIRECalc gave me a number quite a bit more than $100K, after I entered in our actual SS numbers. Surprisingly, SS at 62, FRA, or 70 did not change the amount it said I could spend.

Do I spend that much? No way. I want to have a lot of money to count. Having money is nice, just to behold it. No need to spend it. Remember that if you spend all that FIRECalc says you can, there's a good chance you become a thousandaire near the end of life, and that's not a good feeling.
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Old 11-07-2014, 04:49 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by FlyBoy5 View Post
I'm another one that hasn't touched the FIREcalc. I figure if I have been spending below the income that my pension/RE income/dividends will be for the last several years, then I will be good to go.
I have run fire all and the Fidelity tool, and at least one other, but I don't think they ran my situation well. So, I have a pension, with cola, that pays house note, and DW and both will be eligible for SS, so with savings I do today at age 70 I'll have income equal to my spending today. Then we have a rental that will be paid off about that time for any increased expenses. All that to say my retirement savings only will need to last 10 years, and I'll have WR rate of 4% for those 10 years.

Calculators are designed to plan for a mostly steady income stream, which is not our situation. Between 60 and 70 I have 4 WR changes

Just to say you can and should use a calculator to get info, but dont worry if they don't model your plan exactly.
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Old 11-07-2014, 05:26 PM   #25
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I played with FIRECalc, entered my pension, future SS and current IRA (60/40). I retired this year at 49.

I tried various inflation rates, 2%, 3%, 4% and tried steady spending, Bernicke's Reality Retirement Plan, and Percentage of Remaining Portfolio.

100% success in all 114 simulations over 30 year period.

In addition, the Percentage Remaining states: FIRECalc found that 100.0% of the time, the portfolio you would have left behind exceeded the portfolio you started with.

Good new? Why do I still worry about money? What if I live past 30 years? :-)
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Old 11-07-2014, 05:48 PM   #26
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Is it gauche if I tell you this: $100K+, Age 58, retired?

FIRECalc gave me a number quite a bit more than $100K, after I entered in our actual SS numbers. Surprisingly, SS at 62, FRA, or 70 did not change the amount it said I could spend.

Do I spend that much? No way. I want to have a lot of money to count. Having money is nice, just to behold it. No need to spend it. Remember that if you spend all that FIRECalc says you can, there's a good chance you become a thousandaire near the end of life, and that's not a good feeling.
Counting IS FUN Sr. Rico McPato.

Actually, if you want to have some fun numbers the Vanguard Financial Engines calculator consistently gives me about 25% more than Firecalc So I take comfort in that number whenever I think I'm blowing the budget.

By the way, I get about the same answer on the when to take SS question. That's what makes those frequent threads on SS so much fun at this forum. Everybody is right!
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Old 11-07-2014, 05:59 PM   #27
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25% more than FIRECalc? Whooeee!

Oh, but wait. I can get FIRECalc to give me a higher number if I enter in my pessimistic longevity expectation, and not use the standard 30-year retirement period.

That should also make me feel good about under-spending. Somehow, that doesn't feel right though. Happy to be dying young and rich?
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Old 11-07-2014, 06:02 PM   #28
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I'd have been gone about 5 years ago
I often wonder why I stay... January will be the start of more 401K contributions. Since I put in 75% of my salary, and there is a 4% match, January is like double pay. The pension increases by ~10% on 6/30.

2013 was the first year of the major rental cash flow, so I am still tip-toeing until I see it more consistent for a few years. I bought a property in 2012 that was not 100% rehabbed and rented until 1/1/2013. That gave me ~$31K in extra cash flow as it was a cash purchase.

I have since paid off a 188K mortgage in 2014, and my own house in 2014, so that bumped up my cash flow and reduced my expenses. A $30.5K change.

I was able to track quite a bit of savings this year as I did not buy any properties. I am saving 100% of my net pay from my job, plus my 401K max of $23K, plus another $7K per month. So the properties should be enough to live on. I want to break $1M again in investable assets, and bring it up to ~$1.25M and I am gone.

So, the light is at the end of the tunnel. I am practicing FIRE, getting my activities lined up and my mindset ready. When I am finally free, I will hit the ground running.
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Old 11-07-2014, 06:05 PM   #29
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25% more than FIRECalc? Whooeee!

Oh, but wait. I can get FIRECalc to give me a higher number, if I enter in my pessimistic longevity expectation, and not use the standard 30-year retirement period.

That should also make me feel good about under-spending. Somehow, that doesn't feel right though. Dying young and rich?
Right on. Actually I think that's part of the secret of the Financial Engines calculator. I think it assumes on average bucket kicking takes place per actuarial tables.
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Old 11-07-2014, 06:20 PM   #30
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The intent here was NOT to get a gauge on if one feels safe at their own spending levels. It was to get an idea of retirement income levels at various ages.
We looked at the CES:

Consumer Expenditure Survey

Plus we just do some of the light weight kinds of stuff from urban homesteading books and blogs and that lowered our expenses quite a bit more:

http://urbanhomestead.org/urban-homestead

My new motto is freedom is low overhead.
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Old 11-07-2014, 06:29 PM   #31
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Right on. Actually I think that's part of the secret of the Financial Engines calculator. I think it assumes on average bucket kicking takes place per actuarial tables.
Looking at the two concurrent polls on this forum, one about wealth and the other about expected life span, do you think posters here are so lucky to be wealthier than the general public, and outlive it too? Oh, and there have been many threads about whether luck is an essential part of all of this.

The problem is when a poster drops out, either for wealth or health reason, we do not know about it. Self selection...
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Old 11-07-2014, 06:33 PM   #32
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12k, 1993, because I had too. I never heard of FireCalc til later. I did have a Vanguard retirement booklet. Interestingly in those days 6-8% withdrawals were not out of the question assuming you croaked on time. I think they also started retirement at 65.

heh heh heh - Webtv, found the forerunner to this forum and became a high class ER. Mr Market, time in the market, AND marriage has improved my income 10 fold. Who'd have thunk it!
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Old 11-07-2014, 06:39 PM   #33
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Firecalc puts DW and I at 100% success with an overall pre 62 withdrawal rate of 2.8% based on projected retirement expenses. I tried to put some fluff in the numbers for the budget. Plan on pulling the plug April 2015 at 49!
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Old 11-07-2014, 07:00 PM   #34
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Looking at the two concurrent polls on this forum, one about wealth and the other about expected life span, do you think posters here are so lucky to be wealthier than the general public, and outlive it too? Oh, and there have been many threads about whether luck is an essential part of all of this.

The problem is when a poster drops out, either for wealth or health reason, we do not know about it. Self selection...
Luck or not I dunno but every poll I've seen at this forum shows that most posters here self select at way over the 2 sigma level on NW and since from everything I've read there is a direct correlation to longevity (on the aggregate, unfortunately) so yeah a very unusual distribution
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Old 11-07-2014, 07:06 PM   #35
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12k, 1993, because I had too. I never heard of FireCalc til later. I did have a Vanguard retirement booklet. Interestingly in those days 6-8% withdrawals were not out of the question assuming you croaked on time. I think they also started retirement at 65.

heh heh heh - Webtv, found the forerunner to this forum and became a high class ER. Mr Market, time in the market, AND marriage has improved my income 10 fold. Who'd have thunk it!
Uncklemick you my hero! YOUR PSST Wellesley made me look real hard at that fund and it ended up as 1/3 of my liquid NW.
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Old 11-07-2014, 10:18 PM   #36
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FireCalc says my 100% success income is twice what I have spent in my first year of ER.
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Old 11-08-2014, 06:01 AM   #37
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I often wonder why I stay... January will be the start of more 401K contributions. Since I put in 75% of my salary, and there is a 4% match, January is like double pay. The pension increases by ~10% on 6/30.....
It is a insidious disease called OMY syndrome. You continue to find reasons to continue working until you die or get so sick that you can't work any longer.
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Old 11-08-2014, 06:34 AM   #38
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It is a insidious disease called OMY syndrome. You continue to find reasons to continue working until you die or get so sick that you can't work any longer.
As I look at the numbers, my desire for the OMY is less and less. Unless something crazy happens, I will not be around a real job on 7/6/16.

I knew I would never be a billionaire, as long before I am a billionaire, I would have enough. The reason i work so hard now, is because I am lazy and do not want to work later.
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Old 11-08-2014, 06:48 AM   #39
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The reason i work so hard now, is because I am lazy and do not want to work later.
So true.

In my student years I was lazy, and none of my friends thought I could work hard, go very far and succeed at the job I took. They didn't even think I could manage to get a Phd. Until I started to kick myself into gear the last year and did a very well-received master thesis.

The friends I made at the last job I had have the opposite view: Most of them don't believe I can slack off and be permanently lazy Until they started seeing me barely working in the last few months.

Good lesson in there for me too: extrapolation of people based on past behavior can work, but isn't everything.
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Old 11-08-2014, 07:15 AM   #40
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.....The reason i work so hard now, is because I am lazy and do not want to work later.
Same here. DS seems to have inherited it too.

My laziness reminds me of an old Beetle Bailey cartoon where Beetle complains to Sarge that Sarge always assigns him the most difficult tasks and Sarge replies that since Beetle is so lazy that he thinks that Beetle will find the easiest way to do it.
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