perinova
Full time employment: Posting here.
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2006
- Messages
- 534
There are too compete systems mentioned in the literature. SHould I even say a debate?
Since the need of the retiree doesn't change with valuation and since indexing for valuation owould remove excessive funds that can otherwise still provide higher income later, my own conlusions and calculations leads me to plan for a SWR that would be indexed to inflation at all time but in bad times.
By taking a constant SWR with inflation it means a lower SWR when the portfolio is high. What I also don't like about indexing to valuation is that it is in effect resetting my plan every year which I do not want to do. The SWR also seem to be lower in that case (see firecalc answers).
However I am planning to once in a while maybe every 7 years (?) or so reconsider the plan based on the current economic cycles. Sometimes portfolio valuation is changing becasue the economy itsefl is and it muight be a good idea to reconsider my own lifestyle. What I am talking about here is something more fundamental than portfolio valuation (wall street) but a real change in the economy (main street).
If my portfolio is flying high and the S&P P/E and P/B are nominal. I could reset my SWR to the current portfolio
If my portfolio is low and the S&P P/E and P/B are nominal. Well the society is probably tightning belt and I might to do the same because my portfolio won't be higher any time soon.
Since the need of the retiree doesn't change with valuation and since indexing for valuation owould remove excessive funds that can otherwise still provide higher income later, my own conlusions and calculations leads me to plan for a SWR that would be indexed to inflation at all time but in bad times.
By taking a constant SWR with inflation it means a lower SWR when the portfolio is high. What I also don't like about indexing to valuation is that it is in effect resetting my plan every year which I do not want to do. The SWR also seem to be lower in that case (see firecalc answers).
However I am planning to once in a while maybe every 7 years (?) or so reconsider the plan based on the current economic cycles. Sometimes portfolio valuation is changing becasue the economy itsefl is and it muight be a good idea to reconsider my own lifestyle. What I am talking about here is something more fundamental than portfolio valuation (wall street) but a real change in the economy (main street).
If my portfolio is flying high and the S&P P/E and P/B are nominal. I could reset my SWR to the current portfolio
If my portfolio is low and the S&P P/E and P/B are nominal. Well the society is probably tightning belt and I might to do the same because my portfolio won't be higher any time soon.