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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article
Old 05-19-2006, 07:10 PM   #21
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article

back to the original post:

Shiff is off-base on several counts.

1) he states/implies, but it does not necessary follow, that increased home ownership decreases the CPI.

2) "core" CPI is NOT used to measure experienced inflation, but to approximate underlying systemic inflationary pressures within the system -- it is emminently reasonable to do this! (the problem is that some folks misundertand why this is done.)

Don't suppose he's really being objective on the matter, as he concludes: "Now that reality is beginning to set in, time is running out to get out of the dollar. Protect your wealth and preserve you purchasing power before itís too late. Download my free research report on the powerful case for ..."* Have I heard this before?* *Better buy g*ld or beaver cheese (before it's too late).
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article
Old 05-19-2006, 08:09 PM   #22
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Excuse me for a moment while I hijack this thread with a peripherally on-topic post:
I remember Goldie Hawn.* Were there other cast members?* Oh, yeah, Lily Tomlin.

Wikipedia has this entry.* Scroll down to the bottom of the page to track down the cast members.

JoAnne Worley has been doing bit parts on sitcoms, as has Dick Martin.* Gary Owens was on an episode of "That 70's Show" a few years ago.* Dan Rowan has passed away.* Judy Carne had a 1970s-80s reputation as such a huge drug addict that even Steven Tyler of Aerosmith was in awe of her powers.*
* *I'll just continue the hijack .. I was in grade school, but I loved Laugh-In.* Thanks for that link, Nords. I knew Dick Martin had done some directing, too, but hadn't realized he directed the Newhart shows...*
* *Here come de judge ....
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article
Old 05-20-2006, 10:57 AM   #23
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article

Yeah, sorry about the hijack. I have a tendency to take a question and go somewhere unintended with it. Or as my daughter said at age 13: "Mom, we'll never know when you have Alzheimer's!"...Sock it to me, kid....
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article
Old 05-20-2006, 11:09 AM   #24
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article

I was getting a tooth cleaning when the new dentist of the week my wifes dental office owner hired walked in saying "you bet your bippy!". I made the mistake of saying "I remember that show", after which I was regaled with tales of 1960's television shows I'd rather forget.

Which beats the crap out of the last dentist of the week who had a variety of opening topical questions designed to get him started telling you for an hour about his airplane, his surgeon sons maserati, their multiple million dollar homes and their exotic vacations.

Which explains why he was in his 70's and still working.
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article
Old 05-20-2006, 11:35 AM   #25
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article

Quote:
Originally Posted by astromeria
Yeah, sorry about the hijack. I have a tendency to take a question and go somewhere unintended* with it. Or as my daughter said at age 13: "Mom, we'll never know when you have Alzheimer's!"...Sock it to me, kid....
Most of our parental conversation is filled with lines from classic rock lyrics and old TV shows. Try to explain the concept of "Land shark!!" to a 13-year-old at a dinner table or to a crowd of her friends.

We considered buying our kid about 40 DVDs so that she can catch up with us, but on further reflection we're not interested in teaching her our language and she's not interested in learning it.
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article
Old 05-20-2006, 01:11 PM   #26
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Most of our parental conversation is filled with lines from classic rock lyrics and old TV shows.
Mothers and sons don't always have a lot in common, but my son & I share a love of movies and sometimes comment on life with a familiar quote...

--Faint praise: "Goood idea" followed by a cheesy smile ("Never Cry Wolf")
--Near misses: "Captain, we're out of the lane!" ("Hunt for Red October")
--Distracted by irrelevancy: "Ya gotta listen to the wind, hoss" ("Thunderheart")
--Proof: "Look sir, droids!"
--Creativity: "There are No. New. Steps!" ("Strictly Ballroom")
--Time pressure: "I give two minutes for your gallant crew." (the Star Trek movie with Christopher Lloyd)
--Disbelief: "I find your lack of faith disturbing" ("Star Wars")

Reminds me of that Star Trek:Next Gen episode featuring the people who communicate only through metaphor so the universal translator isn't helpful (Darmok)

"I won't grow up!" ("Peter Pan")
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article
Old 05-20-2006, 01:39 PM   #27
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article

How about re-calculating the "volatile" portion of CPI by smoothing it over a 6-12 month period and then adding it back in? I understand not wanting to make the markets crazy because of a short term spike in energy due to a Hurricane, but if you take an rolling average of six months and include it with the core, that would be a more justifiable system. Let's protect ourselves from volatility, not reality.
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article
Old 05-20-2006, 02:19 PM   #28
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article

no one is hiding the volatility ... it's there in CPI (including food and energy).
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article
Old 05-20-2006, 05:26 PM   #29
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laurence
Let's protect ourselves from volatility
I *like* volatility!
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article
Old 05-20-2006, 07:23 PM   #30
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article

Quote:
I *like* volatility!
it's certainly true that volatility can lead to great rewards (or disaster), but in general is leads to uncertainty and risk. those who desire to reduce that risk generally reduce their returns.* those who are willing to accept the risk, in turn receive increased returns. markets are nice like that.
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article
Old 06-15-2006, 02:06 AM   #31
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apocalypse . . .um . . .SOON
By Peter Schiff:

The "core" CPI is actually of little value since about 40% of it is comprised of rent (either actual or owner-equivalent). In the current low interest rate environment, which has drawn in an ever-widening pool of home buyers, rents are being artificially suppressed. Whatís more, the proliferation of adjustable rate mortgages and no down payment loans have temporally turned many renters into buyers; fully one third of first-time homebuyers are putting zero down! As a result, the national rental vacancy rate is at a 40 year high, and rents are under pressure. Therefore, the Fed's inflationary monetary policy is paradoxically helping contain rent increases which represent 40% of the "core" CPI, while causing housing prices themselves, which are not even included in the CPI, to soar. The more inflation the Fed creates, the lower the "core" CPI. How convenient.
I had to revive this thread because something interesting is happening.* *It may be true that the fed's increased liquidity put downward pressure on rents (and therefore CPI), but now the opposite is happening!

The largest increase in the CPI is now coming from the heavily-weighted owner's equivalent rent (OER) component.* * *As the fed raises interest rates, fewer people are able to afford a house, so there are more renters, and rents are going up!* * The Fed is causing inflation by fighting inflation!

I'm sure they realize this, but I wonder what they'll do about it.* * Simply ignore the increase in OER?

In any case, I read one article that suggests that this subtle effect isn't priced into the TIPS market.* * The bond market is underestimating future inflation because of this, so TIPS are a bargain right now.
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article
Old 06-15-2006, 02:25 AM   #32
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab

In any case, I read one article that suggests that this subtle effect isn't priced into the TIPS market.* * The bond market is underestimating future inflation because of this, so TIPS are a bargain right now.
Interesting.

Could you give a link or reference for this article?

Ha
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article
Old 06-15-2006, 02:43 AM   #33
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article

Time to buy Tips before price of protection goes up

The May Inflation Report: The Buzz On OER
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article
Old 06-15-2006, 10:49 AM   #34
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Re: Inflation-CPI piece article

Rents have been on the move up around here as housing prices have flattened. Makes sense to me. I have a friend renting a "suite" (2 rooms w/bathroom) in her (very large, very nice) house for $1200 right now, that's several hundred dollars more than what it would have gotten just a year ago.
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