JohnDoe123
Dryer sheet wannabe
- Joined
- Jan 3, 2017
- Messages
- 15
We all heard about the CAPE, but here's another interesting equity return predictor: Household Equity Percentage (HEP):
The Single Greatest Stock Market Predictor Is... What? | via FinanciaLibre.com
The value of equities as a % of the household has a 0.91 time-series correlation with 10-year forward nominal S&P500 returns, 0.74 correlation with real returns (since the 1950s!). That's better than the CAPE on a stand-alone basis. The author claims (quite correctly, I find) that the HEP and CAPE (in conjunction) are a nice way to gauge future returns. Right now both CAPE and HEP point to quite disappointing equity returns going forward. Of course, considering still substantial error bounds...
Working in finance myself I have seen my fair share of nonsensical indicators, but from a purely economic and fundamental perspective there should be some merit:
So, I'm just putting this out for discussion. I hope people enjoy FinanciaLibre's analysis. He has a good sense of humor, too!
The Single Greatest Stock Market Predictor Is... What? | via FinanciaLibre.com
The value of equities as a % of the household has a 0.91 time-series correlation with 10-year forward nominal S&P500 returns, 0.74 correlation with real returns (since the 1950s!). That's better than the CAPE on a stand-alone basis. The author claims (quite correctly, I find) that the HEP and CAPE (in conjunction) are a nice way to gauge future returns. Right now both CAPE and HEP point to quite disappointing equity returns going forward. Of course, considering still substantial error bounds...
Working in finance myself I have seen my fair share of nonsensical indicators, but from a purely economic and fundamental perspective there should be some merit:
- Mean reversion: If stocks overreact in price without pulling the rest of economy (and hence net worth) with them, then they should pull back again.
- Smart Money vs. Dumb Money: When the bulk of households jumps on the bandwagon it's usually too late. Or vice versa, when households all hate stocks it's usually a good time to buy. Fear vs. greed cycles that overreact and mean-revert again.
So, I'm just putting this out for discussion. I hope people enjoy FinanciaLibre's analysis. He has a good sense of humor, too!