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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-10-2006, 08:07 PM   #61
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Re: Inversion countdown

I found this in the NYT. Yippy for globalization.

The World Isn't Flat, but Its Yield Curve May Be

In recent months, the yield curves in Japan and Germany, the second- and third-largest economies in the world, have been flattening, while the yield curve in Britain has already inverted. "Long-term interest rates are even lower in Europe and Japan than they are in the U.S.," said Kenneth Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard.

"The conundrum is global," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute, based in New York. The same factors that are influencing the interest rate climate in the United States are having similar effects on overseas bond markets.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/08/bu...ey/08view.html
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 03:04 AM   #62
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Re: Inversion countdown

Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
I probably would stay 100% stocks like I am now. I'm 25 so I can afford to have swings in my asset values. I lost a large percentage of my portfolio in the 2000 crash, so I've experienced large volatility.
Justin, what you experienced was not volatility, it was staying long on a bear market (can destroy 80-90% of your portfolios). While being 100% in stocks @ 25 on a bull market is perfectly appropriate. The longer the bull run the longer you sit on it the richer you'll get (remember the saying "I made the most money with my a** sitting on my positions E. Lefevre :-)" though bear mkts are more rapid and you make more bucks for the same timescale. The dive in Oct 98 was a big downturn on a Bull market and the rest is volatility, like the market being down/up 5-10% a month...
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 08:16 AM   #63
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Re: Inversion countdown

poyet,

I was an uninformed invester. I bought a handful of hot tech or .com stocks, and lost my shirt. Luckily it was a small 5 digit loss at that point. I look back on it as a rather cheap lesson in investing. The price of 4-5 multithousand dollar investment seminars, all crammed into one gutwrenching bear market crash. When you're own money is at risk, the losses are real, and the emotions are real.

I learned:
1. Diversify
2. Don't buy on Margin
3. Don't buy "what's hot" (at least not in great numbers)
4. Don't buy individual stocks

These lessons may not apply to everyone, but for me, they let me sleep at night (more important than potentially juicing returns 1-2%). I don't need astronomical portfolio growth to reach my ER goals. Just a slow steady climb.
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 08:32 AM   #64
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Re: Inversion countdown

Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
poyet,

I was an uninformed invester.* I bought a handful of hot tech or .com stocks, and lost my shirt.* Luckily it was a small 5 digit loss at that point.* I look back on it as a rather cheap lesson in investing.* The price of 4-5 multithousand dollar investment seminars, all crammed into one gutwrenching bear market crash.* When you're own money is at risk, the losses are real, and the emotions are real.

I learned:
1. Diversify
2. Don't buy on Margin
3. Don't buy "what's hot" (at least not in great numbers)
4. Don't buy individual stocks

These lessons may not apply to everyone, but for me, they let me sleep at night (more important than potentially juicing returns 1-2%).* I don't need astronomical portfolio growth to reach my ER goals.* Just a slow steady climb.*
Well, we both lived through the same period when our portfolios were small. I learned different lessons:

1) Valuation is the most important thing in investing. Never lose sight of the difference between what an asset is worth vs. what someone is (temporarily) willing to buy or sell it for.
2) If you run with the herd you will get trampled. It is psychologically difficult at times, but doing the opposite of what everyone else is doing often pays well.
3) Don't bet too much on any one stock/sector/asset class. It pays to concentrate modestly, but establish position limits and stick to them, even if it means leaving some money on the table.
4) Show me the money! If the business doesn't throw off enough free cash to pay a dividend or regularly buy back significant quantities of stock, it should be subject to extra scrutiny.
5) Stay the hell away from serial acquirers. It always ends in tears.
6) Don't let the tax tail wag the investment dog.
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 09:54 AM   #65
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Re: Inversion countdown

Thanks for the tips brewer. Good stuff. Now you just need to throw in a pumpkin pie recipe, and you could write a book
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 10:11 AM   #66
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Re: Inversion countdown

Add investment contributions slowly over time, stir occasionally, and let bake for 20-30 years.
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 10:53 AM   #67
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Re: Inversion countdown

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshac
Thanks for the tips brewer. Good stuff. Now you just need to throw in a pumpkin pie recipe, and you could write a book
Vanguard pumpkin pie recipe:

Buy pumpin pie from store. Eat.
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 10:54 AM   #68
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Re: Inversion countdown

It's better to eat the pie before pumpin' it... :
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 10:58 AM   #69
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Re: Inversion countdown

That would be Pumpin Pie ala mode*
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 10:59 AM   #70
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Re: Inversion countdown

I thought the apple pie was the official pumpin pie?
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 11:01 AM   #71
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Re: Inversion countdown

No, that would be cherry pie...
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 11:18 AM   #72
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Re: Inversion countdown

Well, many things have been said. Some I share others not. I've had the feeling from what I read (may be wrong) that brewer is a bit of a contrarian (from the QQQQ puts story...). My two cents are dont try to be short on a bull run and dont try to be long on a bear dive you'll loose your shirt. Putting leverage quickens things. Even properly used it is one of the most difficult things to master without appropriate software tools providing daily guidance to what you do.
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 11:41 AM   #73
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Re: Inversion countdown

Poyet,
Not to hijack this scintillating excursion into market timing, but...

I just copied the image from your posts into a bigger format and wondered -- are you building a small observatory? It looks terrific, whatever it is. Is it in France? Judging by the rock, it could be somewhere in the south, possibly even Luberon or Provence?

Anyway here's to interesting architectural projects in ER!
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 12:00 PM   #74
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Re: Inversion countdown

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Poyet,
Not to hijack this scintillating excursion into market timing, but...

I just copied the image from your posts into a bigger format and wondered -- are you building a small observatory? It looks terrific, whatever it is. Is it in France? Judging by the rock, it could be somewhere in the south, possibly even Luberon or Provence?

Anyway here's to interesting architectural projects in ER!
Yes, apart from trading, diving, roller skating, skiing, etc for ER I also build telescopes (kind of 3 tons scopes with 5 meters domes...) it keeps me busy :-))
http://cic.cstb.fr/amsee/scopes/scopes.htm
http://cic.cstb.fr/amsee/scopes/tmess4.jpg
http://cic.cstb.fr/amsee/

Located at 1250 meters 50mn from Nice International airport.
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 12:29 PM   #75
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Re: Inversion countdown

Poyet,
Looked up Caussols -- in the middle of one of my favorite parts of the world --- Route Napoleon and the hills up above Cote d'Azur -- rented a house a couple summers ago in Bar sur Loup just a few miles from you which was a delightful spot. Well done on your telescopes. Now back to market timing. (Somehow I think you'll find more long term happiness with your telescopes, but, bon courage and to each his own).
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 12:35 PM   #76
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Re: Inversion countdown

ESRBob,
Funny you stayed so close. Glad you liked. You're welcomed back. In case you'll pass again ring ! You have my telephone on my various blogs. Will be a pleasure.
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 01:22 PM   #77
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Re: Inversion countdown

Quote:
Originally Posted by ESRBob
Poyet,
Not to hijack this scintillating excursion into market timing, but...*

I just copied the image from your posts into a bigger format
What I want to know is how do you do this? Can you share?

Ha
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 01:31 PM   #78
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Re: Inversion countdown

Ha,

If you right-click the image, save it, then open it in whatever software you have, you can then "blow it up". You'll lose some resolution though, depending on the photo's original res...

Now where's cube rat's boob avatar...
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 01:33 PM   #79
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Re: Inversion countdown

It was low-res
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 04:38 PM   #80
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Re: Inversion countdown

Quote:
Originally Posted by Have Funds, Will Retire
Ha,

If you right-click the image, save it, then open it in whatever software you have, you can then "blow it up". You'll lose some resolution though, depending on the photo's original res...

Now where's cube rat's boob avatar...*
Thanks HFWR.

Ha
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