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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-11-2006, 03:42 PM   #81
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Re: Inversion countdown

Originally Posted by Have Funds, Will Retire
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-12-2006, 11:10 PM   #82
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Re: Inversion countdown

Wharton:* Don't Sweat the Inverted Yield Curve: No One Really Knows What It Means.

"All the forecasts are quite favorable. There aren't any real excesses in the economy at the current time, and you usually think of recession as a tonic to the economy, to undo excess."

"I certainly wouldn't describe it as a sharply inverted yield curve. It's 'flattish' and downward-sloping in some segments."

"Long-term rates may be staying low because high demand for Treasuries and other U.S. debt securities keeps bond prices high, which keeps yields low. Bonds represent loans from bond buyers to bond issuers. When demand is high, issuers like the government can attract lots of buyers despite offering low yields."


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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 01-13-2006, 06:10 AM   #83
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Re: Inversion countdown

All fine and well, Nords, but I am planning on buying some longer dated QQQ puts in the May-June timeframe unless I see very obvious changes that suggest the danger is past.
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 04-07-2006, 04:54 PM   #84
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Re: Inversion countdown

Yet another crisis averted. Not long ago the prophets of doom were divining famine and pestilence from the all-knowing yield curve.

Now that the curve is no longer inverted the prophets are warning . . . "higher long-term interest rates threaten U.S. economy"

The expansion will end some day, for sure. But I suspect we'll have to endure endless false alarms like this before something no one expected brings this bull run to an end.
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Re: Inversion countdown
Old 04-07-2006, 06:02 PM   #85
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Re: Inversion countdown

Yeah, but some people need a job feeding people the kind of fear and alarmism they want to hear. Or do you want to put them out of a job?

In the meantime, there are countless tea leaves to read. In years where the average blue-footed boob in Flint, Michigan lays an odd number of eggs greater than seven, markets have gone down 72% of the time (and it's also a key global warming indicator)...........

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