Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Investment chart from NYT Business section
Old 01-02-2011, 12:13 PM   #1
Full time employment: Posting here.
martyp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Bangkok
Posts: 963
Investment chart from NYT Business section

I thought this would be interesting to folks in ER.

In Investing, It?s When You Start and When You Finish - Graphic - NYTimes.com
__________________

__________________
martyp is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-02-2011, 12:53 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 11,969
Took a few minutes to figure it out. Won't make me sleep any better (or worse), but fascinating chart, thanks for pointing it out!

My parents retired in 1982, very lucky...he would say otherwise.
__________________

__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-02-2011, 01:38 PM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 447
Yes, an interesting chart. It also took me a couple of minutes to figure out the graphics.

One thing that the article didn't mention is that most retirees will have been saving over a period of time, so there will be some smoothing of good and bad time epochs.

Peter
__________________
Peter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-02-2011, 02:11 PM   #4
Full time employment: Posting here.
martyp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Bangkok
Posts: 963
I think it conveys a similar message as FIRECalc though without all the input detail. I think it does a good job of showing the variability of a 10-20 yr outlook.
__________________
martyp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-02-2011, 02:22 PM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,384
Ed Easterling, the creator of this chart and other similar very detailed graphics is a member of this forum, although I don't beleive that he has posted in the last several years.

He wrote an excellent book titled "Unexpected Returns". Amazon.com: Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles (9781879384620): Ed Easterling: Books

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-02-2011, 03:44 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
FIRE'd@51's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,315
I looked at my spreadsheet of Ibbotson-Sinquefield data and from the end of 1930 until the end of 1950, the pretax real return was 5.1% per year.
__________________
I'd rather be governed by the first one hundred names in the telephone book than the Harvard faculty - William F. Buckley
FIRE'd@51 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-02-2011, 04:47 PM   #7
Recycles dryer sheets
OrcasIslandBound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Poway, CA
Posts: 441
I like the chart. However, I do keep in mind what is says about it:
Average real annual return

Includes dividends, average taxes and fees. Adjusted for inflation.


The important item here is that this chart is "Adjusted for inflation". So, a 0% return means that the investment kept up with inflation. I suspect that we can add about 3% to the returns posted on the chart if we wish to remove the adjustment for inflation, or we can add specific amounts corresponding to the actual inflation numbers for each time period. A new chart created by doing this may show that while we did not keep up with inflation in the 1970s, not having been invested may have been far worse over 20 year periods.
__________________
OrcasIslandBound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-02-2011, 06:14 PM   #8
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 322
wow, this was really interesting and thanks for posting.
__________________
P.S. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-02-2011, 06:48 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 13,263
Interesting chart....


The 60s and 70s seem to be the worst years... even worst than 29 as the years after were 'OK'....

The current range of 2000 to present is looking like the start of the 60s... lets hope it does not continue this trend...

Remember... the darker red is NOT keeping up with inflation... the light red IS... just not 'enough'... everything else is good to go...
__________________
Texas Proud is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-02-2011, 06:48 PM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,401
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter View Post
Yes, an interesting chart. It also took me a couple of minutes to figure out the graphics.

One thing that the article didn't mention is that most retirees will have been saving over a period of time, so there will be some smoothing of good and bad time epochs.

Peter
Yes, I think it portrays the average return over a selected period if one plunks down a lump sum, walks away, then returns some years later to take out the whole sum.

If so, it would not represent what an accumulator would get, or how one in a distribution phase would fare. In addition, if the investment is accumulated in a tax-deferred vehicle like IRA or 401k, it would look better.

Still, the point is luck has a lot to do with it. But as most of us are in roughly the same age group and will face the same hardship if we will be in a tough period, I have company. You know whom misery loves.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-02-2011, 07:16 PM   #11
Recycles dryer sheets
Arnie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 230
Interesting chart. Thanks. Probably my browser, but it seems to be cut off at the bottom right, and I cannot see the expected return for those retiring this year.
__________________
Arnie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-02-2011, 07:20 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,401
Eh! For that, you probably need to be a subscriber to someone's news letter to get the deluxe graph.
__________________

__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Announcement: New Links Section Andy R Forum Admin 11 09-07-2008 04:54 PM
New Investment/Business Opportunity? jarmour FIRE and Money 17 04-06-2008 01:14 PM
investment vehicles for small business owners simple girl FIRE and Money 6 03-07-2007 10:53 AM
WSJ Retirement Section 12/11/06 ZMAN Hi, I am... 98 12-24-2006 12:09 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:01 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.