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Old 01-08-2019, 07:41 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by FREE866 View Post
can you please provide a link to that?
thx

https://www.fidelity.com/calculators...g-and-guidance


Ultimately, the fidelity planner and FireCalc results were similar, although the latter showed a 14% "margin" over my inputs (planned expenditures) versus FireCalc was more like 20%. The "results" are displayed differently, so it's a bit difficult to compare the two. Fidelity shows your overall yearly % overage or underage, considered on a yearly basis of your planned withdrawal.

I had a good margin of safety on both, so I didn't parse the outputs too carefully. I would suggest looking at the table of withdrawal results, which I didn't know about until my Fidelity rep told me about it. It shows yearly gains/dividends versus expenses over the entire years of planned retirement, so you get a good sense of inputs/outputs over time. This is just a model, of course, but I agree it is pretty conservative.
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Old 01-09-2019, 04:20 AM   #42
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I lost 3.5% from 12/31/17 to 12/31/18.
+1 for last year return. WR last year 1.6%, this year 2.4%.
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Old 01-09-2019, 04:56 AM   #43
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Try this. Add you expenses for the last 3 year. Add your net worth change for the last 3 years. Divide each answer by 3. If the expenses are larger than the change you will need to re-think your expenses and/or better your investments. Think of it this way... with a job you probably work 5 days a week, yet there are 7 days to consider. Do you feel depressed on Saturday and Sunday when, essentially, you are not making any $. Answer - probably not. It's the big, longer picture you need to consider. Just my way of thinking or coping....not sure which.
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Old 01-09-2019, 08:45 AM   #44
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I retired in mid-2014 and I did something similar; result is that I've been up an average of 1.5%/year after withdrawals since retirement, which looks sustainable to me. Before everything went down it was closer to 3.5%/year.

This is my first really bad market since retirement but you have to expect them. It's the reason our returns are higher than interest on CDs or Treasuries- a compensation for volatility.
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Old 01-09-2019, 08:45 AM   #45
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For me, Dividend Kings and Aristocrats are the answer to volatility, and I have a good chunk of my portfolio in them. I follow Regarded Solutions on Seeking Alpha, and he makes a great point... when you invest in these companies for a total yield that supports your annual expenses, you don't care about the market value of your portfolio quite so much. And of course there's dividend growth too.
He also said that your portfolio's market value is something your heirs have to worry about... if you have dividend income in both up and down markets, you're good and your heirs won't have to worry about supporting you. Of course, we all want to leave something to our kids, but this approach makes sense to me, and balances the various worries quite a bit for me.
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Old 01-09-2019, 08:55 AM   #46
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If you are worried when the stock market goes down and happy when it goes up it probably indicates that your portfolio is unbalanced. If your income is also tied to how the economy does, you are doubly at risk because your portfolio can go down when your income is worst which is scary. Most people and companies are in that position and many make it even riskier by borrowing money to be in that position in an even bigger way. That’s what makes the financial rollercoaster ups and downs so big and dramatic. To me, the key is to not have any systematic biases by structuring your portfolios and your incomes so that they hedge each other and are in balance.
- Ray Dalio

"easier said than done"

no idea how to "structuring your portfolios and your incomes so that they hedge each other" when things that used to hedge now correlate instead.
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Old 01-09-2019, 09:19 AM   #47
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I somehow comforted to see these numbers. Not that any of them are "good". It is nice to see that we are not an outlier. 2018 was our 1st year into full retirement. We lost 8.6% of out investment portfolio including our 2.6%ish withdrawal rate and taxes on a Roth conversion. I was/am mentally prepared for the market ups and downs. Considering our 80/20 AA, not too bad I think.
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Old 01-09-2019, 07:17 PM   #48
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After all expenses pulled out including *large* tax bills and kid in state schools. Retired in 2016, we have very little stock exposure. Only investible worth, no real estate appreciation included...

2018 +9.6%
2017 +17.6%
2016 +6.7%
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Old 01-10-2019, 05:02 AM   #49
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My first uncomfortable milestone, my investment loss exceeded my living expenses in 2018.
I'm not sure why the two factors would have anything to do with one another.

Consider that before retirement, any investment loss would be greater than your withdrawals.

Don't sweat it.
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Old 01-10-2019, 05:08 AM   #50
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I'm not sure why the two factors would have anything to do with one another.

Consider that before retirement, any investment loss would be greater than your withdrawals.

Don't sweat it.
+1 This is the only thing that can happen no matter how big your portfolio.
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