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Investment Strategy
Old 07-31-2016, 01:28 PM   #1
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Investment Strategy

Will the upcoming election change your investment strategy in any way, shape or form ?

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Old 07-31-2016, 01:30 PM   #2
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No. I stay in conservative mode.

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Old 07-31-2016, 02:01 PM   #3
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This is an interesting topic, as long as it stays focused on investing and FIRE and avoids politics or partisan comments.
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Old 07-31-2016, 02:05 PM   #4
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Nope. I don't need access to my retirement accounts in the next 4 years. Also, I have found that the markets are going to do what they are going to do, regardless of whether I like the person in the White House or not.
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Old 07-31-2016, 02:19 PM   #5
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Which upcoming election

Whether its a Turkish coup (an election of sorts, no?), British Brexit, Chinese central committee appointments or US president / congress, I don't care.

Just like I don't speculate on what any federal reserve (Japan, EU, US) might do or not do. Or where natural disasters might strike next.

It's out of my sphere of influence and impossible to predict, so better to invest so that you're outcome agnostic. Or just ignore it.
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Old 07-31-2016, 02:29 PM   #6
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No, not the election.... but I will be keeping track of any proposals after we know who the president is... even thought I do not think anything major will change...

Also, your investment style should be consistent with whomever is in the WH... it is the profits of the companies that matter... and since most of my investments are in MFs, I do not look at individual companies...

Now, will the outcome affect me in other ways... I am sure it will... and I will be looking to mitigate any negative outcomes if I am able to do so... but like most things, sometimes there is little that can be done...
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Old 07-31-2016, 02:30 PM   #7
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I hope this is not too political but I do get nervous when any politician talks up protectionism. However, presidents have no power to implement tariffs, only talk about them, only congress has this power. So no, I don't worry much about the election in terms of my allocation or investment strategy. And if it ever looked like congress was going to vote in large tariffs, it would probably be too late to reallocate anyway, the damage would have already been done, and priced into the market.
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Old 07-31-2016, 02:32 PM   #8
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Not going to do anything.
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Old 07-31-2016, 02:33 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by frayne View Post
Will the upcoming election change your investment strategy in any way, shape or form ?
I will be moving allocation to 51% wooden nickels, 49% brass tacks, and healthy portion of what's left to snake bite pharmaceuticals.
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Old 07-31-2016, 03:14 PM   #10
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No. It is just another unknown in a world of unknowns. To try and predict the effect vs that of everything else is folly.
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Old 07-31-2016, 03:26 PM   #11
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No change here either.
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Old 07-31-2016, 03:40 PM   #12
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Yes. If the winner starts talking up cutting SS I'll move my AA more heavily to pitchforks and axes.
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Old 07-31-2016, 03:57 PM   #13
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No. My strategy is to just rebalance once a year regardless of outside events.
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Old 07-31-2016, 04:17 PM   #14
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No plans to change anything. But I do think it is prudent to, over the long term, re-evaluate the relative competitiveness of national economies, including our own, and to shift allocations if warranted. This wouldn't be necessary to do as a conscious exercise if global capital was entirely free to move, but it isn't and so we can't always count on market forces to fairly reflect the underlying value of stocks worldwide. For example, domestic investors in the PRC can't seek many outside investment options, and some foreign money can't readily be moved out--this inflates Chinese share prices. There are other mechanisms that could (and maybe already are) result in an overvaluation of US stocks (eg. US PE10s are higher than many in Europe. It's useful to deliberately consider whether that is an honest reflection of likely future growth prospects in each market or not).
There are clearly steps that politicians can take to change the competitiveness of US companies relative to foreign ones, and it would be rational to adjust allocations to US stocks if that happens. Or maybe before, if you feel you know more than the market does.
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Old 07-31-2016, 05:25 PM   #15
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I was going to attempt jokes about the gov't declaring bankruptcy or knocking down big business, but realized it could be viewed as too political.

So my choice is to carry on with my plans for re-allocating our holdings...
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Old 07-31-2016, 06:10 PM   #16
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No change for us.
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Old 07-31-2016, 06:20 PM   #17
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Either way, I don't have a good feeling about it. Thankfully, I've learned to ignore my feelings when it comes to my Investment Strategy.

Adopting a more conservative strategy due to appreciated values, another year off my life, and frankly, the ridiculous valuations on stocks and bonds.
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Old 07-31-2016, 07:45 PM   #18
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The last few years, I strayed from the path of indexing and had committed too much to O&G oil and health care. That worked great--until it didn't. I did not exit oil and gas when I should have and paid a price. My last focus has been health care, which has still done well.

All may remember that health care/pharma took a big hit when Bill Clinton was elected (and presented John Greaney (long may he wave) with the golden opportunity to buy depressed pharma and retire early.

Simplistically, there is a 50/50 chance that Mrs. Clinton will win and perhaps health equities will take another hit. Accordingly, I have dumped my health fund and returned to index funds, specifically SCV.

Otherwise, no change.

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Old 07-31-2016, 07:55 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by frayne View Post
Will the upcoming election change your investment strategy in any way, shape or form ?
What are your thoughts?

For example, if one candidate was considered to be good for a particular sector, what could you do about it?

Lets say the pro sector candidate won. Then what? Do you think you know something the rest of the market doesn't know? Then how can you be so sure? And if they all know, that sector will be up at the open after the returns are in.

How would you maneuver (out-maneuver everyone else?), even if you had these beliefs?

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Old 08-01-2016, 05:04 AM   #20
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Regardless of who wins, Congress will be deadlocked because of lack of a 60 vote majority in the Senate, just like now.

My travels in the past two years by car/plane across the US, show me that there is plenty of infrastructure replacement going on. Delays and traffic are everywhere.

My investment strategy is still the same and will most likely stay the same.

However, I do watch the Aldi-Dollar General-Big Lots Parking Lots, as I listen to the Fed, as indicators.

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