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Is anyone brave enough to retire in Jan 2019 in this volatile market?
Old 10-28-2018, 11:34 PM   #1
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Is anyone brave enough to retire in Jan 2019 in this volatile market?

Is anyone ready to FIRE in Jan. 2019 with less than $1 mil or $900k with no pension in this volatile market. thought it will be scary in this market, but there maybe some brave souls out there ready to FIRE at the beginning of next year with barebone funds.
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Old 10-28-2018, 11:53 PM   #2
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Is anyone ready to FIRE in Jan. 2019 with less than $1 mil or $900k with no pension in this volatile market.
Are you saying that the market is more volatile now than in the past? The market has always gone up and down. What we have been experiencing the last 10 years is unusual non-volatility! Personally I see the recent events in the market as pretty much normal stuff and it does not concern me in the least.

As far as retiring, I see nothing wrong with doing so in January 2019 if you have reached your magic number or whatever criterion you have set up. Nobody can predict what 2019 will do based on October 2018 or anything else for that matter.
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Old 10-29-2018, 01:06 AM   #3
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The market is not really more volatile than in the past, but people have short memories. The current correction reminds them that stocks do not go up in a straight line.

About feeling secure retiring with $1M, it of course depends on the person's age, and how close he is to SS eligibility.
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Old 10-29-2018, 04:25 AM   #4
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go look at 2015 and 1st quarter 2016... not that long ago. remember oil crashing. china fears when the market froze one day in August?.. IIRC. We RE at 53 in early 2015
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Old 10-29-2018, 04:56 AM   #5
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The market is not really more volatile than in the past, but people have short memories. The current correction reminds them that stocks do not go up in a straight line.

About feeling secure retiring with $1M, it of course depends on the person's age, and how close he is to SS eligibility.
Mid November 2016 to Jan 2018 was by some measures the lowest volatility period in history.
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Old 10-29-2018, 05:44 AM   #6
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I'm retiring in 5 weeks. Hanging on for the ride, and looking for buying opportunities - found one last Friday.
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Old 10-29-2018, 06:13 AM   #7
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Id love to have a few more 100ks to give it a shot. 900k would give me a 100% success rate in any market...ever. So yeah Id try it
2008 had the sub-prime mortgage and banking crisis pulling down markets and confidence for 18+ months. There really isnt a smoking barrel economic or structural humdinger staring at us like in 2008.
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Old 10-29-2018, 06:49 AM   #8
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Also retiring this year. Market action of the past few weeks has definitely rattled me a bit although it's good to see futures up strong this AM.

Realizing that my "risk tolerance" may not be as high as I once thought it was when the paychecks were constantly coming in. I have a solid plan to pay the bills regardless of what the market does, but it is definitely disconcerting to turn off your W-2 income and watch the value of your portfolio drop due to market "volatility". That's definitely going to take some mental getting used to.

I'd hoped to be able to pull from the stock/bond kitty a little (<2% WR) each year to fund discretionary spending like travel. Hopefully we still can and this is all just a temporary pullback vs one that continues and then takes years to recover. I did read the other day that ~10% pullbacks happen on average 2X per year so we've maybe just gotten a bit too comfortable with the comparatively low volatility of the past several years.

Looks like there are a LOT of corporate earnings this week. Let's hope they are all solid. Seems the market is ready to freak out even if 100 companies beat earnings and ONE misses. Craziness. I still think we have the strongest economy in DECADES so over the next months and years will turn solidly north once again..
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Old 10-29-2018, 06:58 AM   #9
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Not sure it really matters if one "only" has 1mm, as long as Firecalc and others still have your comfortable number.
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Old 10-29-2018, 07:13 AM   #10
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Retiring now or staying retired now - what's the difference? This level of volatility is nothing new. Another 10% drop would be typical for the prelude to a plain old recession. 40-50% or more will introduce a bit of pucker factor.
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Old 10-29-2018, 07:14 AM   #11
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Is anyone ready to FIRE in Jan. 2019 with less than $1 mil or $900k with no pension in this volatile market. thought it will be scary in this market, but there maybe some brave souls out there ready to FIRE at the beginning of next year with barebone funds.

I did it at 52 w/ a lot less than what you have. At some point I am planning

to live outside the US and social security will be enough to cover the cost of living.
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Old 10-29-2018, 07:20 AM   #12
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Lots of retiree wannabes have non-stock assets in that under 1M category. Rental income (6%+ returns), paid off home, SS, even large CD holdings now that 3% plus interest is common.

Pretty easy to do in low COL areas of the country.
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Old 10-29-2018, 07:38 AM   #13
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Almost all of us have plans that allow for wiggle room, for a few lowered SWR years, and for cash to carry over rough patches to preclude selling in a down market.

If you don't have that, don't RE in January. If you do, it's your call. I think it would be harder psychologically for me.

I think this is a good reason never to announce RE plans too far in advance in case you want to walk them back for 6 months. What if you said to your boss, eh...scratch that retirement thing I'll stay on a bit and she says "um no your replacement is starting in December".
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Old 10-29-2018, 07:40 AM   #14
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The "volatility" that is in the news these days is just relative. The ocean has been calm for so long that you notice even the small waves.
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Old 10-29-2018, 07:55 AM   #15
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In my opinion, you're leaving out the two most important criteria from this scenario...1) age at retirement and 2) how much SS you will get.


Personally I wouldn't do it, because I'm only 48, so I'd have to wait at least 14 years for SS, unless I could get myself disabled somehow. I also recently bought a house, but I up-sized, so I'm looking at a mortgage payment of around $2900, so I wouldn't be able to cut it on just $900K-$1M in funds.


Now, if I was closer to being able to get SS, and the mortgage was almost paid off, I might consider it.
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Old 10-29-2018, 07:55 AM   #16
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Too little information. It really depends. A 4% SWR would be $36-40k/year. Plus eventual SS. The big factor is can this income stream support monthly expenses? If we are talking about a frugal individual/couple with no desire to travel, eat out only on occasion, clip coupons, etc. then sure.....$1M should be plenty. Also are healthcare costs covered adequately?



All depends on what kind of retirement lifestyle someone wants/ would be happy with.
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Old 10-29-2018, 07:59 AM   #17
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I think if I were 55 I might wait it out until I had my portfolio plus two years of income outside of that. I think if I were 55 I would know that a million wasn't such a big number after all.
I just got my comma,seven figures in November 2017(after 10 years retirement) so I am going to feel really bad if/when I lose that.
I have set up a likely budget of what I might be spending in 2019 and it is nearly twice what I am tracking this year. I plan to purchase a new car-and am including payments only for that year and some medical expenses. It is well over my SWR so I have to keep tweaking it .
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Old 10-29-2018, 08:18 AM   #18
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What? Market volatility is always a possibility. Even if the market were not jumping around like it has been lately, your retirement scheme better take into account that it will, at some point.

After a 10 year run-up of historic magnitude, you better look at your nut and imagine what it would look like after a 30% correction followed by 5 years of stagnation, and ask yourself, "Can I survive this"?
If the answer is "no, but hopefully that won't happen", you are taking a big risk.
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Old 10-29-2018, 09:04 AM   #19
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We’re close to being able to pull the trigger, but given market valuations, think it’s prudent to have a bit more of a buffer than we might otherwise have. Target number is about a 15% increase in our nest egg. If we were closer to normal retirement age, we’d probably be calling it done now. ETA, this has nothing to do with current ‘volatility’ but everything to do with valuations.

As to whether you can—its all about expenses and if/when ss will come in. You can retire on very little if your expenses are low.
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Old 10-29-2018, 10:24 AM   #20
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If I were planning to go in 2-3 months and this level of volatility caused me to reconsider, it would mean that I wasn't really ready. Maybe my plan is not good enough, I am not ready emotionally, or just don't have enough funds. It may seem dramatic, but this is not really very scary if you have your ducks in a row. It's normal to have some doubts, but having the right AA as well as plan B, C, and D helps.
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