Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 01-08-2008, 11:29 PM   #61
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 137
That would be catching a falling knife ... but don't let me stop you.

It's also possible to not be a market timer in the short term, but the medium term. I saw and researched this deflationary credit bubble two years ago, sold my house, put all my assets into investments geared for such an event. And here we are.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JPatrick View Post
Well let's see..The NASDAQ has fallen for 7 or 8 days straight. Sure seems to me the time is fast approaching where a gentleman, dirty rotten market timer could launch a timed trade with some success Shucks, could even be tomorrow
__________________

__________________
danm is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-09-2008, 08:48 AM   #62
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,361
I think I would rather own banks that avoided a lot of these problems than one that stepped right into them with both feet.

Why not own WFC or USB instead? Their dividends are nothing to sneeze at, and I think that they are alot safer than Citigroup's.

I prefer that the management of my bank stocks have a decent idea of how to run a bank.

disclosure-- I own USB

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zathras View Post
Not sure how fine a line exists between 'buying low' and 'market timing' in the OP view.
However, I am definately planning to buy low, likely very soon. Where as the OP is talking about moving out of equities into cash, my thinking is opposite. Use income to buy up stocks that are low.
Citigroup is an example, they are around $27.50 right now I believe. Dividend is around 7.5% and P/E is also about 7.6? While Citigroup may very well go down even more in the next few months and may cut it's dividend (3.5% is still pretty nice) I don't think they are going under. So I may take this opportunity to buy on clearance

As for total returns from what I have seen and read, dividend stocks (on average) give greater total returns than non-dividend stocks in recent history:


source: Private Wealth Advisors
__________________

__________________
Hamlet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2008, 08:49 AM   #63
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,484
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hamlet View Post
I think I would rather own banks that avoided a lot of these problems than one that stepped right into them with both feet.

Why not own WFC or USB instead? Their dividends are nothing to sneeze at, and I think that they are alot safer than Citigroup's.

I prefer that the management of my bank stocks have a decent idea of how to run a bank.

disclosure-- I own USB
I own USB, but wish I had bought more ADM.......
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2008, 08:59 AM   #64
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DangerMouse's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Silicon Valley
Posts: 1,812
Quote:
Originally Posted by megacorp-firee View Post
Peace DangerMouse. I agree with you on forum 'thoughts' and who has to live with consequences.

NO U.S. TAXES FOREVER? WOW. Wish I could do that. So you either not US citizens and will never come back to the US or are you renouncing your US citizenship?
In either case, best of luck to you on your retirement plans.
No US taxes forever is the case for us. We are here as alien residents, such a delightful term to be labelled with. We have never done our green card or citizenship because we knew if we went down that route the IRS would have us forever.

Australian taxes are not cheap, but the returns are much simpler and it is possible to call them and get someone on the line who actually does want to give you the correct answer to your question. You don't hear of the ATO hounding anyone to their death over a few dollars.
__________________

I be a girl, he's a boy. Think I maybe FIRED since July 08. Mid 40s, no kidlets. Actually am totally clueless as to what is going on with DH.
DangerMouse is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2008, 10:40 AM   #65
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
nun's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
I think what I did about a week ago, ie putting 75% of my US funds into MM should really be described as reallocation rather than market timing. Looking at all the signs in the entrails I think 2008 is going to be bad for stocks so I'll sit on some cash for 6 to 9 months and wait until I see housing starts and purchases starting to turn around, and then re-evaluate my allocation
__________________
nun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2008, 10:44 AM   #66
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,156
Quote:
Originally Posted by nun View Post
I think what I did about a week ago, ie putting 75% of my US funds into MM should really be described as reallocation rather than market timing. Looking at all the signs in the entrails I think 2008 is going to be bad for stocks so I'll sit on some cash for 6 to 9 months and wait until I see housing starts and purchases starting to turn around, and then re-evaluate my allocation
I love this board!
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2008, 12:07 PM   #67
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
JPatrick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,494
Quote:
Originally Posted by nun View Post
putting 75% of my US funds into MM should really be described as reallocation rather than market timing.
Is that the same as "I just drink to be social?"
__________________
JPatrick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2008, 12:14 PM   #68
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
Be interesting if the market shoots up 20% in a few weeks.
__________________
Notmuchlonger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2008, 02:23 PM   #69
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,666
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hamlet View Post
Why not own WFC or USB instead? Their dividends are nothing to sneeze at, and I think that they are alot safer than Citigroup's.
I like USB, they are another one I am looking at. The firesale price of Citigroup is just really tough to pass up. I am confident the business isn't going to go under and don't care all that much if the price does go down to $19 as I am confident eventually they will get back up into the $40 range.
Biggest risk is that they cut their dividend by MORE than 50%.

I have had dealing with WFC. I don't like the way they treated me or our business. Personal preference I guess, but I like to use the services/products of the companies I invest in. If I can't do business with them, I won't invest in them.
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
Zathras is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2008, 02:46 PM   #70
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
calmloki's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Independence
Posts: 5,460
Ok. I'm a market timer. Bought VFWIX this morning to bring our foreign equities up to 40% of our total. Thought was that the market has taken a nice hit, good time to step into the stream. Stocks play a tiny role in our current bundle of assets, but i expect them to take a larger role in the future. Figure this purchase will reduce our AGI by about the same amount that we will save on interest expense this year by refinancing with PenFed. Making those a tax neutral events. Not planned, just a happy coincidence.
__________________
calmloki is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2008, 03:09 PM   #71
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
JPatrick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,494
Quote:
Originally Posted by danm View Post
That would be catching a falling knife ... but don't let me stop you.

It's also possible to not be a market timer in the short term, but the medium term. I saw and researched this deflationary credit bubble two years ago, sold my house, put all my assets into investments geared for such an event. And here we are.

Dear Danm;

Just wanted to thank you for that "falling knife" idea.
Booked and banked 1/2 point plus on MEA, CHU, GTI, OIIM, AND RZ. Alas, your system did not work on NM, but I'm going to try again tomorrow.
CHEERS
Dirty Market Timer
JP
__________________
JPatrick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2008, 06:48 PM   #72
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 11,202
Does this happen to any of you?

I did my annual rebalancing, moving a relatively small amount from stocks to cash. Now I find myself hoping that the stock market will go down, so I can feel good about the fact that I took some money out of it. Doesn't matter that I have tons more money still in the market.
__________________
Al
TromboneAl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2008, 11:46 PM   #73
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
free4now's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 1,225
Emotions are powerful stuff. I end up having thoughts like that all the time. I think that the ability to separate emotional decisions from financial decisions is probably the greatest asset for an investor.

It really is quite easy to lose much more than 1%/yr with emotional buys and sells, and not even realize it.
__________________
free4now is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2008, 06:53 AM   #74
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: New York
Posts: 898
Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
Does this happen to any of you?

I did my annual rebalancing, moving a relatively small amount from stocks to cash. Now I find myself hoping that the stock market will go down, so I can feel good about the fact that I took some money out of it. Doesn't matter that I have tons more money still in the market.


I have an equally irrational thing going on... my pay is mostly bonus, which comes in mid Feb. So I'll be buying a lot in about 4 weeks. I find myself cheering the market drop, so I can buy more with the same $$$. Despite the fact that I have far more in the market than I plan to add.
__________________
Money's just something you need in case you don't die tomorrow.
Maurice is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2008, 07:12 AM   #75
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
kcowan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 5,741
Send a message via Skype™ to kcowan
I have concluded that the asset allocation/rebalancing mantra is just that. Many people salute it but not many people practice it purely. On another board, they are all buying banks on weakness while still claiming to be true to the mantra.

OK the value of their financial sector holding is dropping like a stone but buying on weakness over many weeks is not what they preach in rebalancing school. ISTM that most people like to take an active part in managing their assets and that is an anethma to the mantra.
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
kcowan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2008, 07:23 AM   #76
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,156
Quote:
Originally Posted by kcowan View Post
I have concluded that the asset allocation/rebalancing mantra is just that. Many people salute it but not many people practice it purely.
Unclemick and the Norwegian Widow will be along shortly to comment on your observation. Testosteronely speaking, of course...
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2008, 07:40 AM   #77
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,952
Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
Does this happen to any of you?

I did my annual rebalancing, moving a relatively small amount from stocks to cash. Now I find myself hoping that the stock market will go down, so I can feel good about the fact that I took some money out of it. Doesn't matter that I have tons more money still in the market.
I balanced my TSP right after Christmas, changing to 50% "G Fund" and 50% stock funds in my account and contributions. My plans are to increase the percentage of "G Fund" by 2.5% each month until it is 100% at ER. (I can do that at no cost.) So, I would be increasing it to 52.5% on February 1st.

As of this morning, it's at 51.25% all by itself! It may make it to 52.5% before February 1st, without any efforts on my part.

Still, I can't say I'm thrilled about the market going down when I'm trying to ease out of it.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2008, 07:56 AM   #78
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Moemg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Sarasota,fl.
Posts: 10,040
I usually rebalance Jan.1 st. but I'm waiting patienty for a little up in the market to do this .I'm probably going to ease back on my 85% stock portfolio .
__________________
Moemg is offline   Reply With Quote
for all those closet market timers out there
Old 01-10-2008, 11:57 AM   #79
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 20
for all those closet market timers out there

Wow, I can't believe the number posters who claim that they are "non-market timers" where, in fact, they are indeed timing the market.

Please read Market Timing -- A complete definition before posting anymore "I'm not a market timer but..." statements.
__________________
spazz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2008, 12:02 PM   #80
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,952
Quote:
Originally Posted by spazz View Post
Wow, I can't believe the number posters who claim that they are "non-market timers" where, in fact, they are indeed timing the market.

Please read Market Timing -- A complete definition before posting anymore "I'm not a market timer but..." statements.
Well, I hope you weren't talking about me! :confused: I am increasing my "G Fund" simply to shift to my ER AA from my accumulation phase AA over a couple of years, which has been the plan since around 2003. It would be market timing to NOT do it, under the circumstances.

And by the way, I notice that was your 3rd post. Welcome to the board!
__________________

__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
For Landlords - how do you determine "market rent"? Dude FIRE and Money 11 01-03-2008 09:49 PM
"Gut feel" versus "evidence-based" medicine Buckeye Health and Early Retirement 10 11-08-2007 11:21 AM
"Guru Stock Market Forecasting Grades" Nords FIRE and Money 18 11-05-2006 01:28 PM
Book reports: "Blink" & "Tipping Point" Nords Other topics 2 12-04-2005 05:15 PM
"Dabbling" in the stock market Nords Hi, I am... 23 07-16-2004 09:58 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:36 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.