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Old 01-08-2008, 10:29 PM   #61
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That would be catching a falling knife ... but don't let me stop you.

It's also possible to not be a market timer in the short term, but the medium term. I saw and researched this deflationary credit bubble two years ago, sold my house, put all my assets into investments geared for such an event. And here we are.

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Well let's see..The NASDAQ has fallen for 7 or 8 days straight. Sure seems to me the time is fast approaching where a gentleman, dirty rotten market timer could launch a timed trade with some success Shucks, could even be tomorrow
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Old 01-09-2008, 07:48 AM   #62
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I think I would rather own banks that avoided a lot of these problems than one that stepped right into them with both feet.

Why not own WFC or USB instead? Their dividends are nothing to sneeze at, and I think that they are alot safer than Citigroup's.

I prefer that the management of my bank stocks have a decent idea of how to run a bank.

disclosure-- I own USB

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Not sure how fine a line exists between 'buying low' and 'market timing' in the OP view.
However, I am definately planning to buy low, likely very soon. Where as the OP is talking about moving out of equities into cash, my thinking is opposite. Use income to buy up stocks that are low.
Citigroup is an example, they are around $27.50 right now I believe. Dividend is around 7.5% and P/E is also about 7.6? While Citigroup may very well go down even more in the next few months and may cut it's dividend (3.5% is still pretty nice) I don't think they are going under. So I may take this opportunity to buy on clearance

As for total returns from what I have seen and read, dividend stocks (on average) give greater total returns than non-dividend stocks in recent history:


source: Private Wealth Advisors
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Old 01-09-2008, 07:49 AM   #63
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I think I would rather own banks that avoided a lot of these problems than one that stepped right into them with both feet.

Why not own WFC or USB instead? Their dividends are nothing to sneeze at, and I think that they are alot safer than Citigroup's.

I prefer that the management of my bank stocks have a decent idea of how to run a bank.

disclosure-- I own USB
I own USB, but wish I had bought more ADM.......
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Old 01-09-2008, 07:59 AM   #64
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Peace DangerMouse. I agree with you on forum 'thoughts' and who has to live with consequences.

NO U.S. TAXES FOREVER? WOW. Wish I could do that. So you either not US citizens and will never come back to the US or are you renouncing your US citizenship?
In either case, best of luck to you on your retirement plans.
No US taxes forever is the case for us. We are here as alien residents, such a delightful term to be labelled with. We have never done our green card or citizenship because we knew if we went down that route the IRS would have us forever.

Australian taxes are not cheap, but the returns are much simpler and it is possible to call them and get someone on the line who actually does want to give you the correct answer to your question. You don't hear of the ATO hounding anyone to their death over a few dollars.
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Old 01-09-2008, 09:40 AM   #65
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I think what I did about a week ago, ie putting 75% of my US funds into MM should really be described as reallocation rather than market timing. Looking at all the signs in the entrails I think 2008 is going to be bad for stocks so I'll sit on some cash for 6 to 9 months and wait until I see housing starts and purchases starting to turn around, and then re-evaluate my allocation
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Old 01-09-2008, 09:44 AM   #66
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I think what I did about a week ago, ie putting 75% of my US funds into MM should really be described as reallocation rather than market timing. Looking at all the signs in the entrails I think 2008 is going to be bad for stocks so I'll sit on some cash for 6 to 9 months and wait until I see housing starts and purchases starting to turn around, and then re-evaluate my allocation
I love this board!
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Old 01-09-2008, 11:07 AM   #67
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putting 75% of my US funds into MM should really be described as reallocation rather than market timing.
Is that the same as "I just drink to be social?"
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Old 01-09-2008, 11:14 AM   #68
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Be interesting if the market shoots up 20% in a few weeks.
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Old 01-09-2008, 01:23 PM   #69
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Why not own WFC or USB instead? Their dividends are nothing to sneeze at, and I think that they are alot safer than Citigroup's.
I like USB, they are another one I am looking at. The firesale price of Citigroup is just really tough to pass up. I am confident the business isn't going to go under and don't care all that much if the price does go down to $19 as I am confident eventually they will get back up into the $40 range.
Biggest risk is that they cut their dividend by MORE than 50%.

I have had dealing with WFC. I don't like the way they treated me or our business. Personal preference I guess, but I like to use the services/products of the companies I invest in. If I can't do business with them, I won't invest in them.
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Old 01-09-2008, 01:46 PM   #70
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Ok. I'm a market timer. Bought VFWIX this morning to bring our foreign equities up to 40% of our total. Thought was that the market has taken a nice hit, good time to step into the stream. Stocks play a tiny role in our current bundle of assets, but i expect them to take a larger role in the future. Figure this purchase will reduce our AGI by about the same amount that we will save on interest expense this year by refinancing with PenFed. Making those a tax neutral events. Not planned, just a happy coincidence.
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Old 01-09-2008, 02:09 PM   #71
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That would be catching a falling knife ... but don't let me stop you.

It's also possible to not be a market timer in the short term, but the medium term. I saw and researched this deflationary credit bubble two years ago, sold my house, put all my assets into investments geared for such an event. And here we are.

Dear Danm;

Just wanted to thank you for that "falling knife" idea.
Booked and banked 1/2 point plus on MEA, CHU, GTI, OIIM, AND RZ. Alas, your system did not work on NM, but I'm going to try again tomorrow.
CHEERS
Dirty Market Timer
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Old 01-09-2008, 05:48 PM   #72
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Does this happen to any of you?

I did my annual rebalancing, moving a relatively small amount from stocks to cash. Now I find myself hoping that the stock market will go down, so I can feel good about the fact that I took some money out of it. Doesn't matter that I have tons more money still in the market.
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Old 01-09-2008, 10:46 PM   #73
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Emotions are powerful stuff. I end up having thoughts like that all the time. I think that the ability to separate emotional decisions from financial decisions is probably the greatest asset for an investor.

It really is quite easy to lose much more than 1%/yr with emotional buys and sells, and not even realize it.
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Old 01-10-2008, 05:53 AM   #74
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Does this happen to any of you?

I did my annual rebalancing, moving a relatively small amount from stocks to cash. Now I find myself hoping that the stock market will go down, so I can feel good about the fact that I took some money out of it. Doesn't matter that I have tons more money still in the market.


I have an equally irrational thing going on... my pay is mostly bonus, which comes in mid Feb. So I'll be buying a lot in about 4 weeks. I find myself cheering the market drop, so I can buy more with the same $$$. Despite the fact that I have far more in the market than I plan to add.
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Old 01-10-2008, 06:12 AM   #75
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I have concluded that the asset allocation/rebalancing mantra is just that. Many people salute it but not many people practice it purely. On another board, they are all buying banks on weakness while still claiming to be true to the mantra.

OK the value of their financial sector holding is dropping like a stone but buying on weakness over many weeks is not what they preach in rebalancing school. ISTM that most people like to take an active part in managing their assets and that is an anethma to the mantra.
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Old 01-10-2008, 06:23 AM   #76
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I have concluded that the asset allocation/rebalancing mantra is just that. Many people salute it but not many people practice it purely.
Unclemick and the Norwegian Widow will be along shortly to comment on your observation. Testosteronely speaking, of course...
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Old 01-10-2008, 06:40 AM   #77
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Does this happen to any of you?

I did my annual rebalancing, moving a relatively small amount from stocks to cash. Now I find myself hoping that the stock market will go down, so I can feel good about the fact that I took some money out of it. Doesn't matter that I have tons more money still in the market.
I balanced my TSP right after Christmas, changing to 50% "G Fund" and 50% stock funds in my account and contributions. My plans are to increase the percentage of "G Fund" by 2.5% each month until it is 100% at ER. (I can do that at no cost.) So, I would be increasing it to 52.5% on February 1st.

As of this morning, it's at 51.25% all by itself! It may make it to 52.5% before February 1st, without any efforts on my part.

Still, I can't say I'm thrilled about the market going down when I'm trying to ease out of it.
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Old 01-10-2008, 06:56 AM   #78
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I usually rebalance Jan.1 st. but I'm waiting patienty for a little up in the market to do this .I'm probably going to ease back on my 85% stock portfolio .
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for all those closet market timers out there
Old 01-10-2008, 10:57 AM   #79
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for all those closet market timers out there

Wow, I can't believe the number posters who claim that they are "non-market timers" where, in fact, they are indeed timing the market.

Please read Market Timing -- A complete definition before posting anymore "I'm not a market timer but..." statements.
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Old 01-10-2008, 11:02 AM   #80
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Wow, I can't believe the number posters who claim that they are "non-market timers" where, in fact, they are indeed timing the market.

Please read Market Timing -- A complete definition before posting anymore "I'm not a market timer but..." statements.
Well, I hope you weren't talking about me! :confused: I am increasing my "G Fund" simply to shift to my ER AA from my accumulation phase AA over a couple of years, which has been the plan since around 2003. It would be market timing to NOT do it, under the circumstances.

And by the way, I notice that was your 3rd post. Welcome to the board!
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