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Is anyone tempted to do some "market timing"
Old 01-04-2008, 12:06 PM   #1
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Is anyone tempted to do some "market timing"

With all the talk of a tough time for the DOW and the US economy in the next year is anyone tempted to try to time the market by selling stocks before the recession hits; or maybe you've already done it............
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:16 PM   #2
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With all the talk of a tough time for the DOW and the US economy in the next year is anyone tempted to try to time the market by selling stocks before the recession hits; or maybe you've already done it............
I put my 2008 Roth contribution in yesterday and bought Vanguard Total Stock Market Index. I wish I had done it today instead. In 10 years it won't make any difference.

If I thought I was smart enough to market time, I hope I would get professional help to bring me back to reality.
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:16 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by nun View Post
With all the talk of a tough time for the DOW and the US economy in the next year is anyone tempted to try to time the market by selling stocks before the recession hits; or maybe you've already done it............
I'm in Canada, but I just bought some more units to add to my U.S. index fund a few minutes ago. I'm more interested in re-balancing my portfolio holdings, rather than trying to market time.
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:17 PM   #4
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No, been there and done that and learned I'm not smart enough to know 1) if we really are in for a tough time and 2) when to get back in if I get out. I'm holding on for the ride...
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:28 PM   #5
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I'm NOT a market timer, I've always dollar cost averaged into index funds, however, I moved 75% of my US Index funds to my money market yesterday and I'm going to sit on it through the first quarter. Maybe when the DOW hits 12000 I'll get back in.
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:28 PM   #6
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With all the talk of a tough time for the DOW and the US economy in the next year is anyone tempted to try to time the market by selling stocks before the recession hits; or maybe you've already done it............
I've been timing the market for more than a decade now. I know that it is not a very welcome idea on this forum and everyone does whatever he/she wishes with his/her money, so there is no judgement with respect to what other people think or do here or anywhere else. But if I have any regret for the last decade, it is not to have better stuck to my timing strategies...

I'm not timing the market based on the news, though headlines might provide sometimes good contrarian indications :-) but rely mainly on TA. for example, Japan is now at the early stage of a typical bear market (and cannot fgure out why I've still got some Japanese funds !!! not much hopefully). Again if I were to better stick to the obvious I see, I would have made more money.

To give a hint (using ETFs) to spot what's bearish at the moment, I include the following list:

Security Name Ticker Symbol ML B2B Internet Holdrs BHH streetTRACKS Wilshire REIT Fund RWR iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Majors ICF Vanguard REIT Index VNQ iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate IYR KBW Regional Banking ETF KRE iShares Dow Jones US Financial Svcs IYG SPDR Financial Select Sector XLF Vanguard Financials VIPERs VFH iShares Dow Jones US Financial Sector IYF SPDR DJ WILS Int, REIT RWX SPDR Consumer Discretionary XLY PowerShares High Yield Equity Dividend Achiev PEY First Trust Morningstar Div Leaders FDL Vanguard Consumer Discretionary VIPERs VCR Claymore Zacks Yield Hog CVY SPDR Dividend ETF SDY iShares S&P/TOPIX 150 Index ITF iShares MSCI Japan Index EWJ iShares Morningstar Mid Value Index JKI ML Broadband Holdrs BDH PowerShares High Growth Rate Div Achiev PHJ Russell 2000 Value IWN iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Cycl IYC Vanguard Small Cap Value VIPERS VBR iShares Morningstar Small Value Index JKL iShares S&P Global Financials Sector IXG ML Retail Holdrs RTH ML Biotech Holdrs BBH iShares MSCI Belgium Index EWK streetTRACKS DJ US Small Cap Value DSV WisdomTree High-Yielding Equity DHS First Trust Value Line Dividend Index FVD iShares Russell Midcap Value Index IWS iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index DVY iShares S&P SmallCap 600/BARRA Value IJS

If you're LONG on one of these sectors, you're probably not going to make money at least pretty soon...
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:32 PM   #7
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I'm NOT a market timer, I've always dollar cost averaged into index funds, however, I moved 75% of my US Index funds to my money market yesterday...
I think it would be more accurate to say, "Until yesterday I wasn't a market timer."
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:40 PM   #8
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I agree with REWahoo.

I don't market time, but if I did it would be based on fundamentals - say, raising or lowering the equity % by so much depending on overall P/E ratios, and so forth.
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Old 01-04-2008, 01:17 PM   #9
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As UM would say....time in the market, blah, blah...
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Old 01-04-2008, 03:58 PM   #10
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Bought some TSM and some EM for the Roths the other day.

Id time the market if I knew the exact time to get in and out of it
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Old 01-04-2008, 05:05 PM   #11
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The track record of market timers isn't very good, and my attempts at timing convinced me I'm no better. I just pick an asset allocation I'm comfortable with and stick with it.

There is a lot of extra anxiety in your life when you are trying to time the markets. It might be enough to impact your health, so for me it's not worth it even if the returns are positive.
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Old 01-04-2008, 06:20 PM   #12
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I am a value buy-and-hold investor for individual stocks. I did quite a lot of profit-taking this year and then did serious tax loss selling to offset the gains so I am sitting in a load of cash at the moment waiting to find some value buys.

In fact, we bought a condo in PV with some of it because nobody else is buying right now. The only stock we bought was Lululemon which we bought on a major pullback this fall (34.90) because their PEG was .80 and prospects are good.
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Old 01-04-2008, 06:29 PM   #13
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Just placed an order for some more small value a few minutes ago down 3% today wanted to buy at the new sale price
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Old 01-04-2008, 08:37 PM   #14
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Use the panic to buy my penny, but not many on sale. Maybe Monday morning I could catch some deal.
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Old 01-04-2008, 08:59 PM   #15
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Hmmm:

85% Target Retirement 2015 - real money - let those Vanguard computers do their thing while I hurry up and just stand there.

15% Norwegian widow individual stocks - the putz, hormones, incurable disease - always dinking around, shopping the 'stock mall', catching falling knives, etc.

No big purchases yet - but I have this list.

heh heh heh - if I lose the 15% - I'll whine, piss and moan a lot - but it won't affect my retirement - other than my grand illusions as a stock picker.
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Old 01-04-2008, 09:07 PM   #16
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I went to about 20% cash, 10% BEARX, and 5% gold (FSAGX) around mid 2006, reducing some of my U.S equity allocation. I think today those moves (and some other changes that I was tracking) finally broke even. So while my timing wasn't great, I still think it is at least relevant.

I based my timing on my concerns about the US economy (mostly how the housing problem and U.S personal debt load would impact consumer spending). No TA or specific market projections. I was moving from stocks to mutual funds, so my AA was not yet in place.

In the future I would expect to make smaller moves, preferably moving some gains into bonds when the market is hot and going into all stocks if I'm down 10% or so for the overall portfolio. I don't want to permanently hold a bond position, so I hope that simple timing will reduce volitility without decreasing the rate of return.

Dan
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Old 01-04-2008, 09:20 PM   #17
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Already did. Moved from stocks to bonds during 2006, since then I have a return of about 15%, compared to 3% I would have had if I stayed put. And sold my house and have rented since 2005, at the peak of the local bubble (relative gain of 35% there)

I've been researching this credit bubble for a few years now.
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Old 01-05-2008, 12:20 AM   #18
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I don't market time.

However, I do try to avoid buying what I feel are excessively overvalued stocks, and I have been known to sell them when I feel they become excessively overvalued. Key word here is excessive. Think Cisco at 60 times earnings. At 30 times I'll give it the benefit of the doubt.

I was only about 50% invested in the tech run-up and meltdown in the 1999-2001 because I sold some stocks that I felt had become way overvalued and couldn't find anything to buy.

I bought somewhere in the middle of the way down, and kept buying as it dropped (and then on the way up). It turned out well.

The market doesn't strike me as a screaming bargain, but it doesn't seem overvalued either. There is a lot of uncertainty, and the market valuations reflect that.

If we have to live through a 70s style recession, we will have wished we sold today, but if we just have a regular garden variety recession, selling seems silly. Those are over in a year or two. No big deal.

Since a regular recession seems a lot more likely that a repeat of the 70s, I'm steadily buying just like normal.

Even if the bad one comes, by the time we're in it it will probably be too late to do anything but dollar-cost-average through it anyway

I'm starting to understand why some of you own bonds though. Maybe I'll buy some when I hit 40.
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Old 01-05-2008, 12:31 AM   #19
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"I'm starting to understand why some of you own bonds though. Maybe I'll buy some when I hit 40."

Treasuries have been on a tear the only ones I bought this last year, except in my 401k where it's not a choice. Well PIMCO has done well, almost 9% last year. My long bonds are up 15%-20%.

Going long on the curve isn't for wimps
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Old 01-05-2008, 12:32 AM   #20
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My experience is to NOT do market timing. For every good pick, I seem to have 2 bad ones. I took some tax losses late last year to offset some gains and put the funds back in right away and wished I had not ... but as someone here said, in 20 years it won't matter ...
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