Is Dow 13,000 - 15,000 on the horizon at the rate of this plunge?

[cyber888]

So, the Dow went from 26K-27K to 22K in a very short time. It's like Groundhog day seeing -400 to - 600 day after day.
The Plunge rate seems faster than 2008.

At the rate this is going, I don't see any good news on the horizon. Will we hit rock bottom at 13,000 - 15,000 ?

 

[njhowie]

Maybe, maybe not.

 

[gstillson]

If it were obvious the DOW was going to go down every day then puts would be really really expensive.

Nobody knows which way the market will go. It could be back up to 24000 Jan 3 or so.

 

[winger]

I hope not.

 

[MRG]

Hahaha.

They are calling for snow here, lots of snow. [emoji12]

I spent 38 years in Missouri, I'll let you know when it's snowing.

 

[jazz4cash]

It would be great if this rate continued with a clean break at the bottom. Maybe a bell will ring followed by a smooth rise to all time highs. A long slow grind down with several false bottoms or going sideways for an extended time would be much more painful.

 

[cyber888]

It would be great if this rate continued with a clean break at the bottom. Maybe a bell will ring followed by a smooth rise to all time highs. A long slow grind down with several false bottoms or going sideways for an extended time would be much more painful.

I agree .. i wish they would take it to the bottom now ..than going sideways and lower .. sideways and lower .. agonizing.

I use to be hopeful, but dont see any catalysts for a rebound ... maybe when there is a firm written agreement with China .. I suppose. That’s March 2019

 

[REWahoo]

The market will do what the market will do. No amount of agonizing, wishing or hoping will make any difference whatsoever.

Happy Holidays!

 

[W2R]

I don't have the slightest idea, and I don't think anybody knows.

That said, about two hours ago I said to Frank: "Honestly I have NO idea, but if I had to guess, I'd guess that we are headed for a really bad market crash." * I was thinking a little lower than Dow 13,000-15,000, actually. I actually did say this, too! I'm not making it up.



* If that sentence is not an "anti-Wheee!!!" then I don't know what is. Doing my best for the team!

 

[W2R]

The market will do what the market will do. No amount of agonizing, wishing or hoping will make any difference whatsoever.

Happy Holidays!

Exactly! And just like we all got through The Great Recession during 2008-2009, if there is another crash coming then we'll get through it too, together. We'll come out the other side better off and better investors from the experience.

I think ER-Forum members are at their best when the market is at its worst; holding hands, whistling a little tune, and encouraging one another to hang in there and not to sell low unless it is necessary to do so.

And Happy Holidays to you, too!

 

[street]

I don't have the slightest idea, and I don't think anybody knows.

That said, about two hours ago I said to Frank: "Honestly I have NO idea, but if I had to guess, I'd guess that we are headed for a really bad market crash." * I was thinking a little lower than Dow 13,000-15,000, actually. I actually did say this, too! I'm not making it up.



* If that sentence is not an "anti-Wheee!!!" then I don't know what is. Doing my best for the team!

You just keep those thoughts to yourself. LOL

 

[Car-Guy]

I don't have the slightest idea, and I don't think anybody knows.

That said, about two hours ago I said to Frank: "Honestly I have NO idea, but if I had to guess, I'd guess that we are headed for a really bad market crash." * I was thinking a little lower than Dow 13,000-15,000, actually. I actually did say this, too! I'm not making it up.



* If that sentence is not an "anti-Wheee!!!" then I don't know what is. Doing my best for the team!

Your new avatar says it all.

 

[Car-Guy]

Exactly! And just like we all got through The Great Recession during 2008-2009, if there is another crash coming then we'll get through it too, together. We'll come out the other side better off and better investors from the experience.

Can I quoted you on that? Wait, I just did.

Happy Holidays

 

[El Magnifico Loco]

So, the Dow went from 26K-27K to 22K in a very short time. It's like Groundhog day seeing -400 to - 600 day after day.
The Plunge rate seems faster than 2008.

At the rate this is going, I don't see any good news on the horizon. Will we hit rock bottom at 13,000 - 15,000 ?

Well of course, no one truly knows. If this is a severe bear market (as opposed to a correction or worse, a run-of-the-mill-bear), we could see a P/E of 7, before it truly bottoms out. We're now at a P/E of 18. So that's another 60% decline, or in terms of the Dow, another decline of 13K (if I'm doing the math correctly . . . I'm on my 3rd glass) to 8K or 9K.

I try to keep in mind these types of declines only occur once or twice in a generation, so think of it as a buying opportunity. As I tell my kids, if the market only goes up on average 6%/year over the next 40 years (when they retire), the S&P will be at 24,000, vs the 2400 it is today. If one has a shorter horizon, it's best to keep more in cash to ride out the bottom and eventual recovery. And the average recovery from a bear market bottom is about 2 years.

I just wish we would hit bottom quickly!

 

[audreyh1]

Your new avatar says it all.

Yeah, very much the opposite of wheee!

Which we know understand is GRO-O-OWL!!

 

[pjigar]

Every recent recession is worst than the previous one and I attribute these wild swings to heavy financial engineering. I wouldn't be surprised if the next recession is worst than the "great recession". I will still keep investing regardless of which way market moves.

 

[audreyh1]

IMO the main issue was that the equity markets got way overextended, partly due to Fed easy money policy for a few years, and stubbornly ignored until recently that the Fed has been taking that punch bowl away.

Given that, I don’t see why it should be one of the nastier bears, or give back more than say 2-2.5 years worth of gains. I don’t think we necessarily have a recession although that is certainly possible.

 

[COcheesehead]

Markets will fall farther than we like...and think they will. That is called a bottom. We aren’t there yet.

 

[Lsbcal]

This market action might be the grease that gets the trade talk wheels going. If so next year could be very profitable.

 

[SecondCor521]

* If that sentence is not an "anti-Wheee!!!" then I don't know what is. Doing my best for the team!

Thanks for trying!

 

[aja8888]

Well, there certainly needs to be some good news coming out of Washington soon in order to avoid a "manufactured recession". If enough of the population gets slammed due to job losses and other negative economic events, they could stop spending money and things will go into a tailspin.

 

[jazz4cash]

I guess the real question is if the secular bull run will continue after this disturbance or do we enter a long term bear market. I don’t know but since I wasn’t smart/lucky enough to dodge this bullet, I’ll hunker down with the rest of you if there’s room in the trench.

 

[eroscott]

I follow some diff financial youtube channels and like this guy as he usually spits out concise videos and is a data analysis guy.

In this short video starting about 1:43 in he talks about 20 times the markets have dropped 10% and the amount of time they have recovered in:
a) next quarter
b) next 2 quarters
c) next year

Youtube: https://youtu.be/EFPWKyMQliQ?t=103

Update:

 

[jazz4cash]

Ok. How much is 12 +9+2?

 

[eroscott]

Ok. How much is 12 +9+2?

I noticed that as well because 20 is pretty easy to add up in your head. -- 20 = (12-2)+(9-1)+2 -- parens used for 'clarity'. -- see quote via youtube below.

P.S. also quite funny because the youtube channel that 'jazz4cash' responded to is called 'Jazz Wealth Managers'.

Or this from one of the youtube response

Actually it is only 12 total that recovered within the year; the other 8 times it took more than a year to recover. It recovered 2 times within the following one quarter, it recovered 8 times within the following two quarters (the two times it recovered in the first quarter and 6 more recovered within the second quarter), and it recovered 12 times within a year (both the first and second quarters are within a year). (the 2 and 8 times mentioned are both within the year). The other 7 times it recovered in the past (since we are on the 20th time now and it has not recovered yet) it took more than one year. I think he mentioned in a previous video the average bear market is 292 days. So the other 7 times I am guessing had a bear market longer then one quarter which is why it did not recover within a year following the bear market (because it was still going down longer than a single quarter)