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Re: Is indexing good?
Old 12-09-2005, 09:32 AM   #81
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Re: Is indexing good?

When I invest, I'm not looking to win the lottery. I'm buying businesses, looking for cap gains and dividends. Not a stock picker, so I try to buy chunks of various markets - LC, SC, Intl, EM, bonds, metals, commodities, blah blah blah...

Those who lost big in the tech bubble, and those who will lose the most in a housing bubble collapse, got greedy, and forgot about rebalancing and diversification.

IMHO, but feel free to flush this down Greg's infinite toilet........... :P
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Re: Is indexing good?
Old 12-09-2005, 09:32 AM   #82
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Re: Is indexing good?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ((^+^)) SG
Hey, the most important thing to consider when you are investing is what are you most comfortable with. If you don't believe in and understand an investment when you buy it, you are likely to sell it at the worst possible time. So, Greg, by all means, do what you believe in.

But if you are going to attempt to debunk a long term index strategy with 11 month returns data, the least you could do is get the numbers right. S&P is running just under 6% for the year. Total Stock Market is over 7%. Inflation is just under 3%. Even if it were a bad year for indexes, one year out of decades is not the way to evaluate the strategy.
It was a quick picture that I took last nite. The actual number from BusinessWeek magazine was 3.1% ytd (Dec. 31, 04-to date), . This was also confirmed by The Economist that I received on Monday. My BW has been recycled. My suspicion, after thinking about it, is that perhaps the dividend and reinvestment (extranious capital gains, etc) amounts were NOT included in that figure. If true, this just reinforces my belief in dividends, interest, and compounding which is a good thing. You may be looking directly at Vanguard's S&P 500 Fund numbers which are probably inclusive of those items.

To my mind, it's always good to sort out all the different components and examine each to find out how they affect the whole. My fear is getting too caught up in a 'slice & dice' relativity world where you can't see the bubble under your feet. This is what I see some pushers of index funds doing: They do comparisons of very closely related funds and then end up having a preference for the low-cost option based on that lateral relationship of fees.

This is NOT a bad thing either as long as you see the macro elements that affect the relative ones. It certainly is a balance between lost in the macro and lost in the slice and dice because you can't do it all given the limited abilities given to us humans. Each individual investor needs to consider and judge this balance while in the agility phase of the investment cycle and then make adjustments while on the move, before the hostile engagements.

In response to your last sentence: I agree, but . . . that was my entire point on this thread, that over time some portion of indexing monies, by themselves, push up the price of underlieing stocks in the indexes--the positive feedback loop-- that Grumpy so aptly identified too. I still don't know how much, but I believe it exists. Others do to. I like people who make me think about things differently. Hussman, sooner or later, will get some money from me, if only because I like his views. His track record just confirms his perceptions. Just another positive feedback loop though.

--Greg
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Re: Is indexing good?
Old 12-09-2005, 09:38 AM   #83
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Re: Is indexing good?

Diversity of opinion is good...don't think anyone knows the future

If everyone thought the same I'm not sure Modern Portfolio Theory(MPT) and Diversified Asset Class investing would work...

No one can even agree on the definition of "value investing"...to me it has always been buying assets(generally equity securities) with the highest Book Value to Market Value...others use different definitions...oh, well

As a believer of the empirical evidence and MPT, I like to think only time will tell....
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Re: Is indexing good?
Old 12-09-2005, 03:46 PM   #84
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Re: Is indexing good?

wildcat:

Most of the money as I said is in short fed paper. Yes, that is not actively engaged in the market. I see the broad stock market going down soon. But I've said that before, lots of times. But . . . soon . . . maybe . . . you know what. So I put my paper away as safely as I can. That's my big bet . . . that the market will go down and then I can re-enter in a better position than most if they ride the market down. I agree with a diversified porfolio if you have made the commitment to always be engaged in broad sections of the equity market. But, there are other areas that offer diversity. Below is an argument for one. If the argument makes sense, then at this time I might possibly take a little money out of an S&P 500 fund, that may or may not be at its peak, and put it into a PM fund in order to diversify. A few percent of reallocation might be worthwhile. Then just work the re-balancing machine. It would make me very happy just to see some slight movement away from equities and toward other commodity asset classes. I think PMs are even more special. More on inflation later. Thanks.

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Re: Is indexing good?
Old 12-09-2005, 04:26 PM   #85
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Re: Is indexing good?

Well, Greg I happen to think my definition of a diversified portfolio includes other assets, including broad commodity investments like Pimco Commodities Fund.* I own it as I think it has its place in a portfolio.* I also think it would be foolish to throw a huge pile of your stash into commodities.

If a ratio existed, like the one in the article, that accurately predicted exactly when to buy gold and get out of equities (or whatever) everyone would be rich.* These are professionals and none of them have been able to do it year after year.* No offense but I doubt your ability is much better.* As I said I have a small amount that I play with but I know my limitations and I know my skills are no better than most professionals.* Maybe you should consider the same approach and make your big bet a small bet.

Additionally, as you read and believe certain themes will come to fruition, I can find an articles stating the exact opposite.* For example, as troubling as the current economic conditions appear to you, there are award winning economists who believe deficits can go on to even more ridiculous levels.

I think it is important to be engaged by the market and I too find it fascinating.* I may drop an opinion in here and there but to regularly preach about the coming bear market makes me think, again, that your approach will be self-defeating.* I am happy with my allocation, I can sleep at night and I don't worry about what could go wrong, especially the stuff I have very very very little control over.

Staying in cash could make you look like a genius but it could also make you look like a fool - 50/50.* * What if we don't crash, have small gains and inflation warms up?* Cash looks pretty bad.* I know being diversified across many sectors will make me look pretty smart either way and I will have a better chance at earning higher risk adjusted returns.* No matter how much you preach or how many links you provide warning of a dark future, I'm not changing a darn thing.

I am really not trying to come off as an ass but that is just how I see things whenever someone tells me _____ is going to happen.
*
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Re: Is indexing good?
Old 12-09-2005, 05:05 PM   #86
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Re: Is indexing good?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apocalypse . . .um . . .SOON
. . . that was my entire point on this thread, that over time some portion of indexing monies, by themselves, push up the price of underlieing stocks in the indexes--the positive feedback loop-- that Grumpy so aptly identified too.* I still don't know how much, but I believe it exists.*
The problem is . . . it doesn't. It sounds reasonable. After all, why wouldn't all the money flowing into equities push up prices? Once people see the higher prices they chase after performance and drive prices still higher. Walla, a positive feed back loop! It's all perfectly logical. Except where is the evidence to support the theory? I still haven't seen any.

But I will provide some evidence that argues to the contrary!

From your prior posts I gather that you except PE multiples as a way to measure equity value. Also from your prior posts I gather that you believe index investing has lead to a "feed back loop" in large cap stocks that has pushed prices to unjustifiably high levels. So let's look at S&P 500 PE multiples over time.

For the past 80 years the PE multiple on the S&P 500 has averaged about 15.9x, and ranged from a low of about 6x to a high of 60x. The S&P 500 currently has a PE of 18.5x, which is a bit higher than average, but certainly not extreme. In fact, an 18 PE multiple was the norm from the late 50's to the early 70's before we drove the economy into a ditch.

By comparison, the PE stood at 20.6x in 1987. From 1987 to December 2005 the PE multiple has actually DECLINED by about 10%, from 20.6x to 18.5%. Notwithstanding this 10% decline in PE, the S&P 500 has returned 561% (10.6% compound annual growth rate) from 1987 to today!

PE multiples did expand significantly from 1979 to 1986 as the country whipped inflation. But since then, all of the returns generated by the S&P 500 (10.6% annually!!) can be attributed to earnings growth - not multiple expansion!

So much for an equity bubble produced by a positive feed back loop. The reality is that stocks are higher because companies earn more money and are therefore worth more.

Go ahead and jump in. The water's fine.
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Re: Is indexing good?
Old 12-09-2005, 08:03 PM   #87
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Re: Is indexing good?

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Originally Posted by . . . Yrs to Go
Go ahead and jump in.* The water's fine.* *
Aaaaaw, man, if he follows advice like that then there won't be any more opportunities for paralysis by analysis...
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Re: Is indexing good?
Old 12-09-2005, 08:38 PM   #88
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Re: Is indexing good?

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Originally Posted by . . . Yrs to Go
The problem is . . . it doesn't.* . . .
Don't believe him, Greg. Index funds have driven the prices up astronomically. Don't let this data about the past fool you. This time it's different. The fall is inevitable and will be soon.

Also, don't answer your door. Millions of Minnesotans are headed to your house to use the toilet right now.
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Re: Is indexing good?
Old 12-09-2005, 10:27 PM   #89
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Re: Is indexing good?

Greg
The way I see your main point is that the index funds are sucking up large quanities of stock that then don't trade. This is creating a positive feedback loop that creates positive returns, that creates bubbles.

I think that if indexing was really that big of a factor, you would be seeing increasing price volalitity in the market as smaller amounts of money could move prices to a larger degree. But I don't know if this is happening.*

If you think this positive feedback loop is going to break and the market moves lower, it may be because the front end of the boomers stop saving and are withdrawing. This probably would not be a good time to rush in as it would be a long term thing. Unless you thought the chinese are going to support the US stock market.* *

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Re: Is indexing good?
Old 12-10-2005, 04:11 AM   #90
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Re: Is indexing good?

I keep getting confused inside of Apocalypse's theorizing. It kinda makes sense when I read it, but then I think:

---
Why all the emphasis on what the gov't. does or doesn't do? If you have global assets as well as US ones, this should concern you less..

Why have US stocks not suffered despite weaknesses in the US economy? Maybe because many of them, too, are effectively global, with paying clients all over the world. Are Exxon and Citibank US companies, or global ones? If their profits flag in the States, they have other sources of profit.

---
I don't see how having followed the tech bubble and lost turns one into an anti-indexer. One would think just the opposite.

---
The talk of Ponzi schemes is also a head-scratcher.. Are we talking "Zero-Sum Society"? Wealth creation is an illusion? If so, why are we not all back in the afore-mentioned field schlepping rocks? Will we soon be back to that.. is that your proposition?

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Re: Is indexing good?
Old 12-10-2005, 10:36 AM   #91
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Re: Is indexing good?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ladelfina
I keep getting confused inside of Apocalypse's theorizing. It kinda makes sense when I read it, but then I think:

---
Why all the emphasis on what the gov't. does or doesn't do? If you have global assets as well as US ones, this should concern you less..

Why have US stocks not suffered despite weaknesses in the US economy? Maybe because many of them, too, are effectively global, with paying clients all over the world. Are Exxon and Citibank US companies, or global ones? If their profits flag in the States, they have other sources of profit.

---
I don't see how having followed the tech bubble and lost turns one into an anti-indexer. One would think just the opposite.

---
The talk of Ponzi schemes is also a head-scratcher.. Are we talking "Zero-Sum Society"? Wealth creation is an illusion? If so, why are we not all back in the afore-mentioned field schlepping rocks? Will we soon be back to that.. is that your proposition?

ladelfina: I'm sorry for not responding to you before this. You've posed some wonderful questions and I've thought about them quite a bit. Part of my problem is that I'm still thinking about pity, trenchant, and germain correct and thoughtful answers. You and others create the most important learning environment possible, and I appreciate it. But I'm still thinking about things but now DW has decided I need a larger and more active "honey-doo" to occupy my mind and body. So, balance is required.

The gov't is important because they set up the playing field of business and personal behavior. They make ALL the rules or manage them in certain directions. For a simple example, at the start of the war, Haliburton knew what was coming way before we did, plus they had Dick C. guiding them thru too. Another less recent example is the Minnesota "homestead tax" reduction put in place by the Minn legislature years ago. This benefit broadly changed and nurtured a home ownership culture. One only has to look a little distance, Wisconsin, to see the differences of nurturing stakeholders or not. Everything money- related traces back to gov't policy to shape our behaviors. Don't let the little idea of 'freedom' that some politicians tout every time they're on TV fool you. It's the 'incentives' baby. Follow the money, watch the lobbyists.

If you believe some bears, we are now starting on the path of overt empire. The bulls are already in the thick of it, many without knowing it; they are just trying to make money off the future spoils. The gov't may be trying to extend their rules to the entire world. (JG , Obewon, help me here: "Pax Romanus" or something like that?).

Again, my statistics and numbers may be wrong here (and please correct me if so). The gov't says that we are currently running a 3%+ GDP; separately, they state that inflation is NOW running near 4% (I think they are lieing). 3%-4%=-1%. Therefore, the economy is NOT growing because all the expansion is eaten up by inflation. S&P 500: Estimated growth this year 7%+%. 7%-4%=3%. You may only be making 3% on your money-- before taxes and of which you pay on the 7% apparent gain not the real gain. Do I see hidden inflation anywhere? Yes. And I think part of that hidden inflation creeps into the markets thru indexers putting new money in there, distorting values.

Ben Burnanke said that the reason interest rates are so low is that Asian savers have so much savings that they were investing in our wonderful country and driving rates down. It seemed to solve the Greenspan conundrum. That's one possibility. Another is that the world is so flooded with paper and digital money looking for good, safe investments, and not finding them even in their own equities, that they settled on US bonds. Same results, different theory. The second theory sees a macro-misallocation. You be the judge. Our current gov't chose Burnanke's idea. These people are the custodians of our future.

Back to the doo list--right now--and for at least one more day. Thanks for being persistant. It's my little world (but not all of it is in my head).
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Re: Is indexing good?
Old 12-10-2005, 10:51 AM   #92
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Re: Is indexing good?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apocalypse . . .um . . .SOON
Again, my statistics and numbers may be wrong here (and please correct me if so).* *The gov't says that we are currently running a 3%+ GDP;* separately, they state that inflation is NOW running near 4% (I think they are lieing).* 3%-4%=-1%.* Therefore, the economy is NOT growing because all the expansion is eaten up by inflation.*
Yup, your numbers are wrong.* The oft quoted number is for real GDP growth.* Current dollar (nominal) growth was up above 7% in the latest quarter, with 4.3% real growth.*

Makes me wonder why everyone is so down on the economy - we're growing like gang busters but no one seems to recognize it.* Maybe that's a good thing.* Maybe that means people are experiencing a bout of "irrational pessimism" (Apocalypse?) which presages better things to come.*
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Re: Is indexing good?
Old 12-10-2005, 11:50 AM   #93
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Re: Is indexing good?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apocalypse . . .um . . .SOON
Another is that the world is so flooded with paper and digital money looking for good, safe investments, and not finding them even in their own equities, that they settled on US bonds.* Same results, different theory.* The second theory sees a macro-misallocation.
Ding ding ding!

As long as we hold the global lock on capitalism & intellectual property, it's not a macro-misallocation. It's not a question of how good we are at these things-- it's whether anyone else is better.
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Re: Is indexing good?
Old 12-10-2005, 12:06 PM   #94
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Re: Is indexing good?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Ding ding ding!

As long as we hold the global lock on capitalism & intellectual property, it's not a macro-misallocation.* It's not a question of how good we are at these things-- it's whether anyone else is better.
I think in a broader sense it is more how longthe accumulated value of our physical and intellectual capital outweighs the huge sums that we borrow. My suspicion is that we will not see a short, sharp drop in the USD, but likely more of a long, slow slide, especially when it no longer suits China et al. to keep the exchange rate artifically low.

Its hard to be pessimistic all the time. I'm not an indexer unless I ahve to be because I have no edge. So I index the EAFE and commodities. Bonds and individual equities I am more than happy to pick and choose, partly because I think I have an edge, but also because I can take risks I think are appropriate for me (as opposed to the systemic risk embedded in indexes). As such, my equity portfolio mostly does not move with the indexes. Since I worry about some of the same things Greg does, I also make sure I maintain 10% or so in unhedged foreign sovereigns and 10% or so in commodities. I also maintain some shorts and puts as insurance on US equities.

This all boils down to being able to sleep at night.
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Re: Is indexing good?
Old 12-10-2005, 01:09 PM   #95
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Re: Is indexing good?

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Bonds and individual equities I am more than happy to pick and choose, partly because I think I have an edge
Thank you, brewer, for helping to keep my index funds efficiently priced.
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Re: Is indexing good?
Old 12-10-2005, 06:38 PM   #96
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Re: Is indexing good?

Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo!
Greg, I think I can safely speak for all non-bean eating (in chili, that is) Texans when I say, "You're full of crap".

Oh yes, I forgot:

Wahoo: You know, in my earlier toilet post I was just trying to give you southern types a little Minnesotan. I thought that was enough. But there was a slight pile on. So, I just had to give you folks a whole line of Texan.
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Re: Is indexing good?
Old 12-10-2005, 06:42 PM   #97
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Re: Is indexing good?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apocalypse . . .um . . .SOON
Wahoo: You know, in my earlier toilet post I was just trying to give you southern types a little Minnesotan. I thought that was enough. But there was a slight pile on. So, I just had to give you folks a whole line of Texan.
Very Charmin.

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Old 12-10-2005, 07:02 PM   #98
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Re: Is indexing good?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apocalypse . . .um . . .SOON
ladelfina:*

Back to the doo list--right now--and for at least one more day.* Thanks for being persistant.* It's my little world (but not all of it is in my head).
This is "doo" all right, and "persistant"? What the hell is that?

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Re: Is indexing good?
Old 12-10-2005, 07:05 PM   #99
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Re: Is indexing good?

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Very Charmin.

Not to mention asstoot!

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Old 12-10-2005, 07:22 PM   #100
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Re: Is indexing good?

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Originally Posted by . . . Yrs to Go

Makes me wonder why everyone is so down on the economy - we're growing like gang busters but no one seems to recognize it. Maybe that's a good thing. Maybe that means people are experiencing a bout of "irrational pessimism" (Apocalypse?) which presages better things to come.
Yup, many people feel that things are not right in these times. I wonder what is causing this feeling? All the government numbers seem to tell us everything is fine, hunky-dory.

Isn' this how the scientist basically starts out? Scientist: That theory we've been using for years to explain things just doesn't feel right. Plus there are anomalous events that can't be explained with it. Something isn't right. But the other people who have a stake in that theory just keep arguing that I'm irrational in my quest. I need a deeper, better theory that encompasses not just what those other scientists say but, also, explains those events that they deny exist. I'll get right on it.
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