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Is it just me, or are you also seeing...
Old 11-12-2008, 03:05 PM   #1
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Is it just me, or are you also seeing...

...and hearing more people who had previously been committed to buying and holding, people who were committed to hang on to eventually get their losses back, throwing in the towel and surrendering?

Seems like everywhere I turn, I'm starting to hear a lot more of that. I wasn't hearing that as recently as two weeks ago. But since last Tuesday, the incessant water torture decline seems to be setting many people over the brink. I think many of them sense it will be a terrible long-term decision...but they just can't take it any more.
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Old 11-12-2008, 03:07 PM   #2
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My FIRE'd parents are not changing anything drastically - hanging in there. We just discussed this last night. All is well - could be better, but they planned well.
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Old 11-12-2008, 03:18 PM   #3
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Seems like everywhere I turn, I'm starting to hear a lot more of that. I wasn't hearing that as recently as two weeks ago. But since last Tuesday, the incessant water torture decline seems to be setting many people over the brink. I think many of them sense it will be a terrible long-term decision...but they just can't take it any more.
This is what a bear market does - it wipes the table clean of all the old adages.

It is a good sign that all the buy and holders say they are getting out.
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Old 11-12-2008, 03:19 PM   #4
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It is a good sign that all the buy and holders say they are getting out.
All? Not this one - at least not yet.
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Old 11-12-2008, 03:44 PM   #5
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Hard to stomach that you're planning to live on 4% annually and then see the markets drop that much week after week. Hard to imagine how long they will take to recover.
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Old 11-12-2008, 04:07 PM   #6
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All? Not this one - at least not yet.

Shhhh!

You're supposed to say you are bailing while secretly sitting tight .

DD
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Old 11-12-2008, 04:09 PM   #7
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...and hearing more people who had previously been committed to buying and holding, people who were committed to hang on to eventually get their losses back, throwing in the towel and surrendering?

Seems like everywhere I turn, I'm starting to hear a lot more of that. I wasn't hearing that as recently as two weeks ago. But since last Tuesday, the incessant water torture decline seems to be setting many people over the brink. I think many of them sense it will be a terrible long-term decision...but they just can't take it any more.

Or maybe they are making the right decision But yes I have notice an increase in what you are talking about.
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Old 11-12-2008, 04:14 PM   #8
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Not buying and not selling. I think the market has a way to go yet to reach bottom. Since I actually have a higher percentage of my net worth in real estate (home and rental) I'm actually more worried about the housing market. I don't think it's reached the bottom yet either.
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Old 11-12-2008, 04:17 PM   #9
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Shhhh!

You're supposed to say you are bailing while secretly sitting tight .
Ooops! My bad.

At least I left myself a little wiggle room...
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Old 11-12-2008, 04:39 PM   #10
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This is what a bear market does - it wipes the table clean of all the old adages.

It is a good sign that all the buy and holders say they are getting out.
Been thru a few since 1966. Give the current 'unpleasantness' another 5 to 10 years and we'll be down to the true believers plus by then rental RE may be back as an effective competitor/ alternate/ diversifier.

Heaven help us if we turn back the clock to guns, gold and freeze dryed food/collectibles - coins/dated wine/singlemalt scotch/art/etc/ etc.

Never fun - especially if people with pesky spreadsheets start calculating that you are not keeping up with inflation - dividend/interest wise.

Target Retirement 2015 = 3.8% (me).

pssst Wellesley = 5.8%

heh heh heh - Try and calculate where you should be theory wise for your point in the accumulation/distribution cycle and stock/bond/cash mix and ala Bogle - stay the course. Or take Henry Fonda's line in The Longest Day - if you have landed on the wrong beach - move inland!

. And the boys at the doughnut shop say the Saint's play the Chiefs next - could be a long dreary football season for both - BUT wait til next year - yep just you wait - you'll see.
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Old 11-12-2008, 04:42 PM   #11
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...and hearing more people who had previously been committed to buying and holding, people who were committed to hang on to eventually get their losses back, throwing in the towel and surrendering?

Seems like everywhere I turn, I'm starting to hear a lot more of that. I wasn't hearing that as recently as two weeks ago. But since last Tuesday, the incessant water torture decline seems to be setting many people over the brink. I think many of them sense it will be a terrible long-term decision...but they just can't take it any more.
Who and where are these people? Most here seem to be holding tight. I don't know enough other people who are interested in investing to have broader information.

Ha
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Old 11-12-2008, 04:44 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
...and hearing more people who had previously been committed to buying and holding, people who were committed to hang on to eventually get their losses back, throwing in the towel and surrendering?

Seems like everywhere I turn, I'm starting to hear a lot more of that. I wasn't hearing that as recently as two weeks ago. But since last Tuesday, the incessant water torture decline seems to be setting many people over the brink. I think many of them sense it will be a terrible long-term decision...but they just can't take it any more.
Have seen it on several boards.

Buy high, sell low; that always works.
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Old 11-12-2008, 04:52 PM   #13
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All? Not this one - at least not yet.
Then we will never have a bottom. Please get out.
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Old 11-12-2008, 05:13 PM   #14
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Then we will never have a bottom. Please get out.
Every one will know the end has occurred if I suffer an Intervention by family and friends and go to Treatment for football addiction.

That's when you HELOC the farm and buy stocks hand over fist.

heh heh heh - meanwhile rumor has it the Pat's are a good football team. .
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Old 11-12-2008, 05:15 PM   #15
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Then we will never have a bottom. Please get out.
OK. Tomorrow. I promise.
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Old 11-12-2008, 05:23 PM   #16
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...and hearing more people who had previously been committed to buying and holding, people who were committed to hang on to eventually get their losses back, throwing in the towel and surrendering?
There was a recent WSJ article with the idea that "capitulation" more often happens when people just kind of give up and walking away out of frustration then some big cataclysmic sell off accompanied by a very high VIX reading.
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Old 11-12-2008, 05:25 PM   #17
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Hard to stomach that you're planning to live on 4% annually and then see the markets drop that much week after week. Hard to imagine how long they will take to recover.
Funny thing though. Although my assets are down, their yields are up and my expected portfolio income is about the same as it was before.
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Old 11-12-2008, 05:39 PM   #18
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Yes. Very depressing to see ordinarily smart people lose their heads and sell.
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Old 11-12-2008, 06:06 PM   #19
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Although my assets are down, their yields are up and my expected portfolio income is about the same as it was before.
That's the way it's supposed to work and that's how you planned it, right?
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Old 11-12-2008, 06:12 PM   #20
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That's the way it's supposed to work and that's how you planned it, right?
That's why my retirement feels as secure as ever.
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