Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 03-22-2013, 08:30 AM   #21
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: seattle
Posts: 643
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koolau View Post
DW and I enjoy browsing Zillow (especially to see what is happening in our old neighborhoods, etc.) Because we also keep track of actual sales in the area, stay in contact with realtors, etc., we have found Zillow to be only a guesstimate. While an apparent 10% increase in values probably reflects the correct trend, I would assume there are significant error bars around that figure. Don't know your area, so I could easily be wrong about this. Still, in areas I know, I take Zillow with a few margarita sized grains of salt. Not that I don't find it interesting and even valuable. YMMV as always.
I own two houses side by side, both built 10 years apart, same size, style, and features. Zillow says one appreciated 14k last month, the other fell 6k in the same period. I agree that they get the trend direction correct, but as we know, "you don't need a weathervane to know which way the wind blows" ...
Maybe the algorithm was having a bad hair day.
__________________

__________________
bld999 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-22-2013, 08:41 AM   #22
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 11,963
Haven't (US) real estate bubbles been largely regional phenomena? Seattle is a hot spot it seems among others (San Francisco, NYC, Wash DC, Los Angeles, etc.).

But even in the 08-09 meltdown, most (flyover) areas were nowhere near as inflated and didn't fall as spectacularly. see graph here Residential Median Sale Price per Sq Ft
Quote:
Should all the financially strapped San Francisco homeowners suddenly put their homes on the market, it would make a dramatic difference in the current low inventory—8% of the city's homeowners still owe more on their bubble-era mortgage than the property's current market value. But with values rising so fast, even houses that sold at the height of the 2007 insanity are getting close to parity. More houses on the market might bring some sense back to people, because it is reportedly damaging to sanity when you're shown four crappy little houses that all need a lot of work, and you're outbid on all of them, immediately.

Meanwhile, just an hour away in California's Central Valley, lots of towns still have a huge shadow inventory of foreclosed homes and people waiting for the good times to return to Adobe Falls Estates behind the old Circuit City and the Applebee's.
Quote:
Despite a recent upturn in sales and prices, "the housing market is still very weak," said Sheila Bair, who headed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. from 2006 to 2011. Bair, speaking at a Washington "economic summit" organized by The Atlantic magazine, warned homeowners that "we need more experience and data to know if it's really turned around."

Bair said lenders may be sitting on huge numbers of foreclosed upon houses that have been held back from the market. As housing prices start to perk up, that hidden inventory may come flooding into the market – and pushing prices back down, she said.

Moreover, millions of homeowners are "under water," i.e., they still owe more on mortgages than they could get by selling their homes. As soon as they can sell at prices high enough to pay off old loans, they'll put their properties on the market—and again drive down prices, she said.
Welcome To The New American Housing Bubble (In Coastal Elite Cities) | The Awl
__________________

__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2013, 08:53 AM   #23
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
heeyy_joe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Madeira Beach Fl
Posts: 1,403
There may be another bubble coming but it will not be in real estate.
__________________
_______________________________________________
"A man is a success if he gets up in the morning and goes to bed at night and in between does what he wants to do" --Bob Dylan.
heeyy_joe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2013, 08:59 AM   #24
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
timo2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Rio Rancho
Posts: 1,438
That the housing market doesn't match the national economy is similar, IMHO, to the stock market not matching the national economy. Maybe the it really is different this time.
__________________
timo2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2013, 09:00 AM   #25
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
timo2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Rio Rancho
Posts: 1,438
Quote:
Originally Posted by heeyy_joe View Post
There may be another bubble coming but it will not be in real estate.

I've recently been thinking the bubble is in corporate profits.
__________________
timo2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2013, 09:04 AM   #26
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Twin Cities
Posts: 434
As a Realtor here in the Twin Cities we are certainly seeing a tight market but I think the biggest driver is the lack of inventory (homes for sale). Sales are up 10%, prices are up 10-15% but the biggest reason for price increases is that active listings are down 30% with a lot fewer foreclosed homes.

Prices are still 10-20% below the peak of 2005-06
__________________
Fishingmn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2013, 09:13 AM   #27
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
calmloki's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Independence
Posts: 5,459
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fishingmn View Post
As a Realtor here in the Twin Cities we are certainly seeing a tight market but I think the biggest driver is the lack of inventory (homes for sale). Sales are up 10%, prices are up 10-15% but the biggest reason for price increases is that active listings are down 30% with a lot fewer foreclosed homes.

Prices are still 10-20% below the peak of 2005-06
This feels like a good assessment to me and in line with what I see in La Quinta California, which I watch hard. Slower markets that I see just don't have the buyers to move the backlog of less desirable foreclosed homes off the market.
__________________
calmloki is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2013, 09:32 AM   #28
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
JoeWras's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 2,516
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
Haven't (US) real estate bubbles been largely regional phenomena? Seattle is a hot spot it seems among others (San Francisco, NYC, Wash DC, Los Angeles, etc.).

But even in the 08-09 meltdown, most (flyover) areas were nowhere near as inflated and didn't fall as spectacularly. see graph here Residential Median Sale Price per Sq Ft

Welcome To The New American Housing Bubble (In Coastal Elite Cities) | The Awl
Yep.

Midpack, what do you think about the Chicago area? They were one central area that had a bit of a bubble.

We're going to be selling Dad's place up there, and I don't see any huge raise. Looks like the market has finally settled to bottom and only now may be starting up. It has been brutal in my Dad's area in the NW suburbs. Homes are selling at pre-2000 prices.
__________________
JoeWras is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2013, 09:35 AM   #29
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 11,963
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeWras View Post
Yep.

Midpack, what do you think about the Chicago area? They were one central area that had a bit of a bubble.

We're going to be selling Dad's place up there, and I don't see any huge raise. Looks like the market has finally settled to bottom and only now may be starting up. It has been brutal in my Dad's area in the NW suburbs. Homes are selling at pre-2000 prices.
Again, everything is regional, even in Chicago. Huge swings in some areas, much less in others. We were hardly affected at all - zillow (questionable source) says our house appreciated 32% from 03 to Dec 07 (peak, it was never really worth that much) and has been steadily declining since, down 19% now but still 8% above 03 estimates.

We have friends who had much larger swings, and different trajectories since. Some areas have come back stronger from 08, others not as much (friend in Ravenswood).

Location, location, location can have upside and downside.

How The Housing Bubble Affected Different Chicago Neighborhoods
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2013, 09:35 AM   #30
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
timo2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Rio Rancho
Posts: 1,438
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fishingmn View Post
As a Realtor here in the Twin Cities we are certainly seeing a tight market but I think the biggest driver is the lack of inventory (homes for sale). Sales are up 10%, prices are up 10-15% but the biggest reason for price increases is that active listings are down 30% with a lot fewer foreclosed homes.

Prices are still 10-20% below the peak of 2005-06

Do you think that the lack of inventory is because people that always made their payments but are still underwater don't want to sell their house and lose money, when they can just as happily stay where they are? After all, one has to live somewhere.
__________________
timo2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2013, 09:51 AM   #31
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
JoeWras's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 2,516
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
Again, everything is regional, even in Chicago. Huge swings in some areas, much less in others. We were hardly affected at all - zillow (questionable source) says our house appreciated 32% from 03 to Dec 07 (peak, it was never really worth that much) and has been steadily declining since, down 19% now but still 8% above 03 estimates.

We have friends who had much larger swings, and different trajectories since. Some areas have come back stronger from 08, others not as much (friend in Ravenswood).

Location, location, location can have upside and downside.

How The Housing Bubble Affected Different Chicago Neighborhoods
Very interesting article. In my old, old neighborhood, it shows a neutral light green. Perhaps... Slight recovery. But down since '03 (Rogers Park area). I've followed the history of homes in my block, and it has not been very good. Actually, some of the places are selling at 1990s prices. It is the neighborhood, which has had some ups but more downs.

Dad's area up N. is suffering from some big corporate downsizings. Motorola has been big up in that area (multiple offices) and has been shrinking.
__________________
JoeWras is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2013, 09:55 AM   #32
Full time employment: Posting here.
Tyro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Upstate
Posts: 699
Quote:
Originally Posted by timo2 View Post
Do you think that the lack of inventory is because people that always made their payments but are still underwater don't want to sell their house and lose money, when they can just as happily stay where they are? After all, one has to live somewhere.
I'm not so sure about the "just as happily" part.
__________________
Yeah well, that's just, ya know, like, your opinion, man. ~ The Dude
Tyro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2013, 10:13 AM   #33
Recycles dryer sheets
timeasterday's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: GA
Posts: 211
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyro View Post
I'm not so sure about the "just as happily" part.
Agree. That's pretty much our situation. I'd love to get out of here and move somewhere else but I'm stuck until I can sell without taking a loss.
__________________
timeasterday is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-23-2013, 11:37 AM   #34
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by cjogo View Post
Supply and demand keeping the prices hot in Carmel & Pebble. Steady climb since the summer >> $22 million sale this month in Pebble.

Amazing what a 800 -1200 sqft home can run still ..on a small lot.
Median List Price $1,825,000
Median $ / Sq. Ft. $1,166
Median Sale / List 95.6%

The residential area is only about 5000 inhabitants... its a potential bubble every sale.
__________________

__________________
cjogo is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:18 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.