Is Real Estate a "Buy" in your neck of the woods yet?

[chrisjul]

Not sure about your math on the Jacksonville area.....I believe the decline is closer to 2-3%...what is your source? (I have a personal stake...I live in the area!).

"Here on the "First Coast" of Florida (Jax to Daytona) prices have come down about 20 - 25% on what they were 1 year to 18 months ago and appear to be still coming down."

Tks,
CC

[free4now]

Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny

I believe a larger than average percentage of homes transacted in this, and many other 'hot' areas are both larger and more 'done over' than they were in the past. Median numbers that dont consider the changes in the 'median' may not have a lot of tractability.

So true. When I moved into my condo in 1998, most of the units in my complex had their original tile kitchen countertops from the 1970's; I never saw a granite countertop in our complex until around the turn of the century. Today when I'm looking at open homes here, most have granite countertops.

It's clear that when the home prices went up, a lot of people spent their equity on renovation. So looking at historical home price graphs I think it's reasonable to assume that a complete "reversion to the mean" won't take place. The value of most homes is higher partially because the homes have actually been improved.

[Alex]

IMHO, If you need a house to live in and plan on staying in it for 10 years of longer, it is always a good time to buy.

[bssc]

I saw an article quoting the local Realtors association. Now is the time to both buy and sell. Thye must be hurting.

[retire@40]

Originally Posted by bssc

I saw an article quoting the local Realtors association. Now is the time to both buy and sell. Thye must be hurting.

I know a few of them. They are.

Although it is weeding out the real pros from the dabblers.

[Want2retire]

Originally Posted by Alex

IMHO, If you need a house to live in and plan on staying in it for 10 years of longer, it is always a good time to buy.

Here in the New Orleans area, it was a sellers' market right after Katrina but during the past year it seems to have become a buyers' market. Volume is down and prices appear to have gone down this year as well. It's hard to gauge just what that means, since the damaged homes weren't selling well right after the storm, and now a greater proportion of sales involve damaged homes. Undamaged homes in my immediate neighborhood are going for lower prices than previously.

After 18 months it seems unlikely that any more evacuees plan to return. Those who have seem to have bought and settled in by now.

I will be trying to sell my home in 2010, after 8 years, and I hope that I am able to sell it reasonably quickly and do not lose much. It was not damaged by Katrina (beyond the usual exterior wind damage that all homes experienced). If I can't sell it, that will simplify my search for a retirement location!

[cute fuzzy bunny]

we figured we could see more drop over the next year or two, perhaps even another 10-15%.

But we wont be selling until gabe is off to college.

That having been said, i've seen some very long up and down cycles. We've had two local run-up/peaks...from 1988-1990 and from 2005-2006. From 1990-1998 it slid every year until prices were down about 30-35%. Talk about desperate sellers in 96-97...

You werent doing too well to buy in 88 and sell in 98.

[tryan]

For the Boston area it looked very similar:

That having been said, i've seen some very long up and down cycles. We've had two local run-up/peaks...from 1988-1990 and from 2005-2006. From 1990-1995 it slid every year until prices were down about 40-50%. Talk about desperate sellers in 93-95...


Made all my best buys in 93-95 ... looking forward to doing it again.

[lazygood4nothinbum]

Originally Posted by chrisjul

Not sure about your math on the Jacksonville area.....I believe the decline is closer to 2-3%...what is your source? (I have a personal stake...I live in the area!).

"Here on the "First Coast" of Florida (Jax to Daytona) prices have come down about 20 - 25% on what they were 1 year to 18 months ago and appear to be still coming down."

Tks,
CC

http://tinyurl.com/yv8457

Among the state's larger markets, the Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) reported slower sales of single-family homes in January, though more existing condos changed hands. A total of 783 existing homes sold last month compared to 938 homes sold a year ago for a 17 percent decrease. The market's median sales price for homes was $185,000; it was $194,100 in January 2006 for a 5 percent decline. A total of 152 existing condos changed hands in Jacksonville last month, a 10 percent increase over the 138 condos sold the previous year. The existing condo median sales price in January was $147,600; a year ago, it was $170,000 for a 13 percent decrease.

[chrisjul]

"The market's median sales price for homes was $185,000; it was $194,100 in January 2006 for a 5 percent decline."

Thanks! 5% sounds much better than 20-25%....I'm feeling better already. I know condos are crashing pretty bad all over FL. I just got out of South FL before the crash began, but North FL has been dinged much less. Prices were pretty obscene down south.

Chris

[lazygood4nothinbum]

i would caution that's just january's number. if these figures have any meaning to you, you would have to find the peak to see where you currently sit. likely it is greater than 5%. also the above figure is for your entire metro area. so of course some areas within that will have done better or worse than others.

edit: according to housing tracker, looks like you are down about 11% from your high.