Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 07-01-2014, 08:15 AM   #21
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 2,904
This bull market could run quite a bit more if we hit those numbers reached in 2000. DOW 30,000 anyone?
__________________

__________________
Fermion is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 07-01-2014, 08:28 AM   #22
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 2,056
I don't know what the S&P did, but I remember a quick drop around that timeframe. I hit a new high on July 7, 2011, but by August 8, I was down about 13.5%. Back then, I had my spreadsheet track peaks and valleys of the month, rather than just the final day of the month, so that's why those days stick in my mind. I think it was September of that year that I finally switched over to just using the last day of the month.

Overall, 2011 was a pretty flat year for me, I think I lost about $1,000 total. Overall NW was up because of additional contributions. By January of 2012, I had hit a new peak.

I don't have my spreadsheet with me to verify, but I don't think I've had any major downturns since then. I think April/May of 2012 got a little rocky, but it didn't last. I also remember a slight dip around May/June of 2013, another quickie in August 2013, and one more around Jan/Feb this year. They were all pretty quick snaps though, probably losing only 3-5%, and rebounding pretty quickly.

I'll admit though, that I'm still a little gun-shy after the "Great Recession", so every time there's another downturn, I think, what if it's happening again? But, my portfolio is also better balanced these days, so I wouldn't lose as much, and I'd have more funds available to buy low.
__________________

__________________
Andre1969 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2014, 08:31 AM   #23
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 3,705
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
While this market is a little "rich", there's far more "rhyme or reason" to it than 2000 in comparison...not that long ago.
I searched for that picture on dshort.com, but could not find it. Do you have a pointer to it?

Edit: Found it!
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/d...P-and-PE10.gif
__________________
target2019 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2014, 08:43 AM   #24
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,074
Help, I'm lost. Where are we?
Attached Images
File Type: gif investor-psychology-illustrated.gif (65.3 KB, 73 views)
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2014, 08:54 AM   #25
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 2,056
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Help, I'm lost. Where are we?
That's the fundamental problem...we won't know til after we've gotten there!
__________________
Andre1969 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2014, 09:08 AM   #26
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 2,904
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andre1969 View Post
That's the fundamental problem...we won't know til after we've gotten there!

I would say we are at 16 or 17 on that chart. +/- 10
__________________
Fermion is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2014, 09:15 AM   #27
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,389
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fermion View Post
This bull market could run quite a bit more if we hit those numbers reached in 2000. DOW 30,000 anyone?
Weren't we there already?

First, we hit 30,000 in 2008.




Then, 36,000.



And also, 40,000.



Look at all those milestones falling by the wayside. Next stop: 100,000.

I will see $10,xxx,xxx on my Quicken screen before I die. Now, that's the bucket list item.

Here we go!!!

Doesn't that bring tears to your eyes?

__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2014, 09:26 AM   #28
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 11,964
Quote:
Originally Posted by walkinwood View Post
Besides the fact that the stock market is at all time highs, what is causing you (those who commented above) to think that a crash or correction is likely? Or is that the main reason?
Quote:
Originally Posted by nash031 View Post
Because a correction is always likely? It'll happen, just a matter of when.
True.

But the fact that market indexes hit all time highs alone are NOT a basis to predict a correction. I see folks post that as a reason here often enough, and it's nonsense.

Markets have hit new highs for as long as there have been market indexes, none of us would invest otherwise...

Quote:
Although U.S. equity markets (represented by the Russell 1000 Index) are at or near all-time highs, that doesn’t necessarily indicate they’ve peaked. Since January 1995, the U.S. equity market has seen 432 new daily highs and has eventually moved higher after each one.
How many bear markets have their been since 1995? At most 5? In which case a new high alone was a predictor 5 of 432 times...IOW uncorrelated.
Attached Images
File Type: png 03-14-13-Bull-and-Bear-Markets-Through-History.png (66.1 KB, 38 views)
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2014, 09:26 AM   #29
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 2,056
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fermion View Post
I would say we are at 16 or 17 on that chart. +/- 10
Yeah, that's about how I feel. While I still have my 401k contributions on auto pilot, and continue to reinvest dividends from my Scottrade account, I'm starting to wonder if it's time to take a little profit out and buy on the next dip.

Of course, who knows when that next dip will be? I'm pretty good at predicting them. About half the time.
__________________
Andre1969 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2014, 09:28 AM   #30
Full time employment: Posting here.
UnrealizedPotential's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 573
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andre1969 View Post
That's the fundamental problem...we won't know til after we've gotten there!
This is why I like listening to Jeremy Siegel.He is always so positive.A Permabull if I ever saw one.Like everyone else though ,he's wrong sometimes.
__________________
Understanding both the power of compound interest and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things. Charlie Munger
UnrealizedPotential is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2014, 09:34 AM   #31
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,248
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andre1969 View Post
Yeah, that's about how I feel. While I still have my 401k contributions on auto pilot, and continue to reinvest dividends from my Scottrade account, I'm starting to wonder if it's time to take a little profit out and buy on the next dip.

Of course, who knows when that next dip will be? I'm pretty good at predicting them. About half the time.
That is kinda market timing which usually does not work. It is another thing you need to rebalance your AA and July 1st is your scheduled time to do that.
__________________
eta2020 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2014, 09:50 AM   #32
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,389
Well, the market does not really make a new high if we account for inflation.

From Jan 2000 till May 2014, the market has to advance 1.41X to match inflation. Yes, there's a bitty dividend that helps, but it is not enough. The S&P reached 1,500 in March 2000. That's equivalent to 2,100 now, but the S&P is only at 1,972 at this posting.

There's really not much to get excited about.

And while I post this, my Quicken screen is counting the money in the other window of this laptop. I will take what the market gives me, with the understanding that tomorrow it may be all taken back, and some.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2014, 10:07 AM   #33
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,248
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
Well, the market does not really make a new high if we account for inflation.

From Jan 2000 till May 2014, the market has to advance 1.41X to match inflation. Yes, there's a bitty dividend that helps, but it is not enough. The S&P reached 1,500 in March 2000. That's equivalent to 2,100 now, but the S&P is only at 1,972 at this posting.

There's really not much to get excited about.

And while I post this, my Quicken screen is counting the money in the other window of this laptop. I will take what the market gives me, with the understanding that tomorrow it may be all taken back, and some.
S&P 500 Return Calculator - Don't Quit Your Day Job...

I think we are looking at 23.117 after inflation return from June 2010 till June 2014. Or real annual return of 1.497% after inflation with dividends reinvested.

This is not great but inflation did not eat up your money. In fact you made a bit of money.

If you started in June 1983 - June 2014 you would look at 7.772% real return. That is pretty good return IMO

If you invested also into mid caps and small caps and international indexes you would be looking at better returns in both time periods.
__________________
eta2020 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2014, 10:46 AM   #34
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
easysurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 7,884
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fermion View Post
This bull market could run quite a bit more if we hit those numbers reached in 2000. DOW 30,000 anyone?
That's the big question. Even though the Dow is at or near records, no one really knows is that the peak or just a mid range for a continued bull market.

For me, I prefer to just stick to my allocations.
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
easysurfer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2014, 10:48 AM   #35
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,389
Quote:
Originally Posted by eta2020 View Post
I think we are looking at 23.117 after inflation return from June 2010 till June 2014. Or real annual return of 1.497% after inflation with dividends reinvested.

This is not great but inflation did not eat up your money. In fact you made a bit of money.
The index was pushed out of the red with the recent surge. Still, that return does not support the WR that most retirees count on. And they have to suffer through two scary roller coasters in those 14 years.

Hey, I am doing quite well through that terrible period of 14 years, thank you, but it's by buy low, sell high rebalancing. Many youngsters here did even better as courageous accumulators. My point is that it is not all that easy, so I quite sympathize with people who shun the market and rather eat less than watch their stash shrink. Some people are not cut out for this, and the fact is that nobody can give them any guarantee.

Quote:
If you started in June 1983 - June 2014 you would look at 7.772% real return. That is pretty good return IMO

If you invested also into mid caps and small caps and international indexes you would be looking at better returns in both time periods.
Sure, that's how many of us could retire early. I hope that the period of prosperity due to post Cold War and the advent of the computer will repeat in some form. I would like to die rich!

Well, I have to log off to prepare for the drive up to my "mountain retreat". See y'all later.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2014, 11:38 AM   #36
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 5,675
My theory, we investors are suffering from PTDD -- Post Traumatic Decade Disorder. This stems from the 1st decade of this century which was marked by 2 nasty equity bear markets.

We will see a month marked by a -5% to -15% decline before this bull market is over. Along the way there will probably be good months too. Nobody knows how they will combine to form a wiggly composite chart. Hopefully that chart will continue up and to the right. So I try to relax and enjoy the ride, but relaxing is not easy when you have PTDD.

BTW, I posted a chart a while back showing the various decades overlaid for comparison. If someone wants it, I'll post it here. I keep coming back to these broad charts to remind me of all those weird historical wiggles.
__________________
Lsbcal is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2014, 11:59 AM   #37
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,455
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Help, I'm lost. Where are we?
Clearly, we are at 17! LOL!

Been hearing that phrase for a while now. Maybe for years.
__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2014, 01:01 PM   #38
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 2,904
After seeing GoPro go to near $50 today I would like to revise my estimate. I think on the chart we are at 19.5.
__________________
Fermion is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2014, 04:40 PM   #39
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Amethyst's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 5,874
I am not W2R. However...

WHEEEE!!!!
__________________
If you understood everything I say, you'd be me ~ Miles Davis
'There is only one success to be able to spend your life in your own way. Christopher Morley.
Amethyst is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2014, 04:45 PM   #40
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 5,675
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amethyst View Post
I am not W2R. However...

WHEEEE!!!!
Now you've done it.
__________________

__________________
Lsbcal is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Approximately how much will my investment portfolio decline when bull market ends? nico08 FIRE and Money 32 06-03-2014 04:42 PM
Bull Market runnerr FIRE and Money 21 06-02-2007 02:17 PM
New Bull Market Bikerdude FIRE and Money 17 04-21-2007 02:52 PM
The Gold Bull Market johnlw FIRE and Money 38 05-14-2006 06:03 PM
More Bull To Come baanista Other topics 6 11-23-2004 05:13 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:33 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.