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Old 10-22-2008, 06:37 PM   #21
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It's funny how these swings don't phase me now - as I said in another thread lets hope the market stays down for awhile and stock up on deals.....I refuse to entertain that we are at a level that is acceptable however we are definately down! I am down about 6 years living expense in my stock funds - all this in less than a year.........
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Old 10-22-2008, 07:27 PM   #22
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I can assure you, the market is not up if you bought into from 2006-2008 as I did. [moderator edit]
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Old 10-22-2008, 07:40 PM   #23
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Yeahhhhhh,but...

That would be all well and good if I hadn't bought anything above the 900 level. Unfortunately, not so.

Nice try though!
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I can assure you, the market is not up if you bought into from 2006-2008 as I did. ...
You have a point there - I was thinking in terms of a retiree pulling money out along the way, or just drawing dividends.

If you are accumulating, well sorry, you are right - it *did* suck for you!

You accumulators really want to see market dips while accumulating, and peaks that pass quickly. So you had that opportunity in 2002-2004, and I'm sure that won't be the last. Hang in there.

-ERD50
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Old 10-22-2008, 07:57 PM   #24
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And on a related note...

what is it with all these media reports? The average Joe/Jane on the street sulking about the market, and how they will have to cut expenses?

It's not like the Average Joe/Jane is living off their portfolio! Like on Thurs night, the discussion around the dinner table is - gee Hon, let's go to that fancy French restaurant this w/e. "Let's see... Continental Airlines is UP this week - sure, you make the reservations, I'll put in a sell order!" Or " No, SHLD is down this week - it's oatmeal for us!".

Crazy media - and this really does make things drop more - everybody, stop buying! If the use of credit is as high as reported, most people should buy less, but it should be driven by reason, not media hype.

Now, a retiree thinking about cutting spending due to a down market - yeah, I can see that.

-ERD50
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Old 10-22-2008, 08:08 PM   #25
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Some media stories cite weak earnings and slumping oil prices as fueling recession fears. A year ago, the rising price of oil was blamed, in part, for hurting the corporate bottom line. Now that dinosaur juice is dropping in price, it is again faulted. Are both correct?
I have yet to see any story blaming dropping oil prices for anything other than the weakness in oil companies.
It [the low price] is seen as a result of the world wide economic downturn rather than a cause.
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Old 10-22-2008, 08:15 PM   #26
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And on a related note...

what is it with all these media reports? The average Joe/Jane on the street sulking about the market, and how they will have to cut expenses?

It's not like the Average Joe/Jane is living off their portfolio! Like on Thurs night, the discussion around the dinner table is - gee Hon, let's go to that fancy French restaurant this w/e. "Let's see... Continental Airlines is UP this week - sure, you make the reservations, I'll put in a sell order!" Or " No, SHLD is down this week - it's oatmeal for us!".

Crazy media - and this really does make things drop more - everybody, stop buying! If the use of credit is as high as reported, most people should buy less, but it should be driven by reason, not media hype.

Now, a retiree thinking about cutting spending due to a down market - yeah, I can see that.

-ERD50
Yeah, I know what you mean. I've had the same thoughts. For many people it's just the freak out factor of all the negative news.

Unfortunately I think that for a lot of people it's just a wake up call to the fact that they've been overspending (probably in debt), maybe partly rationalized by their increasing retirement portfolios, and very likely due to the rocketing house prices.
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Old 10-22-2008, 09:07 PM   #27
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Yeah, I know what you mean. I've had the same thoughts. For many people it's just the freak out factor of all the negative news.

Unfortunately I think that for a lot of people it's just a wake up call to the fact that they've been overspending (probably in debt), maybe partly rationalized by their increasing retirement portfolios, and very likely due to the rocketing house prices.
My debt heavy portfolio will soon be reaping the benefits of massive inflation.
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Old 10-22-2008, 09:15 PM   #28
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I think it's a fair point. Where would the top have been if there had been no housing bubble, and would there have even been a "top?"

Just a guess - maybe S&P at 1100-1200? I'd take that scenario.

Cheers.
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Old 10-22-2008, 11:07 PM   #29
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My debt heavy portfolio will soon be reaping the benefits of massive inflation.
Wow, that's some nice rationalization.
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Old 10-22-2008, 11:52 PM   #30
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Old 10-23-2008, 12:13 AM   #31
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Today it is REALLY down. As in "down a lot."
In terms of absolute dollars, I have lost more in a day than today. But considering that I am 68% in cash (I have a bit of I-bonds and count them as cash), the loss of today left me speechless for a while. Will I see my cash go up to 80%? Hmm... That would mean market at 1/2 of current level.

The question now is not if the sky is falling. I wonder when I will be able to reach up and touch it. But since I am not 6'4, will someone else tell me when he can feel it?
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Old 10-23-2008, 12:31 AM   #32
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OK, before I'm accused of sampling the home-brew (or Kool-Aid) before lunch, of course the market is down - but....

The big drop came from the bursting of the housing and credit bubble (over-simplified, but hopefully close enough). But "drop" is relative to where we were. And, isn't "where we were" inflated by the housing and credit bubble (before they crashed)?

IOW, if lending money had been kept tighter, houses would not have risen so fast, and in general, the stock market would not have risen so fast. So, if that turn of events had not played out as it had, would we be looking at S&P500 @ ~ 900 anyhow? Which is UP from 800 in 2002.

But with the bubble, we went from 800, to 1500, and "dropped" to 900.

So, the market is UP, right?

Feel better now?

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Old 10-23-2008, 04:10 AM   #33
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The Pats do have a good football team, Unclemick. Even without Brady. So do the Saints. With Drew.

And yes, the market(s) are down, way down and painfully so.
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