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Is the market *really* DOWN?
10-22-2008, 12:02 PM
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#1
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 5,427
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OK, before I'm accused of sampling the home-brew (or Kool-Aid) before lunch, of course the market is down - but....
The big drop came from the bursting of the housing and credit bubble (over-simplified, but hopefully close enough). But "drop" is relative to where we were. And, isn't "where we were" inflated by the housing and credit bubble (before they crashed)?
IOW, if lending money had been kept tighter, houses would not have risen so fast, and in general, the stock market would not have risen so fast. So, if that turn of events had not played out as it had, would we be looking at S&P500 @ ~ 900 anyhow? Which is UP from 800 in 2002.
But with the bubble, we went from 800, to 1500, and "dropped" to 900.
So, the market is UP, right?
Feel better now? 
-ERD50
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10-22-2008, 12:16 PM
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#2
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 10,395
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__________________
"Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harborless immensities." - - H. Melville, 1851
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10-22-2008, 12:21 PM
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#3
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: ENE MO - near STL
Posts: 424
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
OK, before I'm accused of sampling the home-brew (or Kool-Aid) before lunch, of course the market is down - but....
The big drop came from the bursting of the housing and credit bubble (over-simplified, but hopefully close enough). But "drop" is relative to where we were. And, isn't "where we were" inflated by the housing and credit bubble (before they crashed)?
IOW, if lending money had been kept tighter, houses would not have risen so fast, and in general, the stock market would not have risen so fast. So, if that turn of events had not played out as it had, would we be looking at S&P500 @ ~ 900 anyhow? Which is UP from 800 in 2002.
But with the bubble, we went from 800, to 1500, and "dropped" to 900.
So, the market is UP, right?
Feel better now?
-ERD50 |
Yeahhhhhh,but...
That would be all well and good if I hadn't bought anything above the 900 level. Unfortunately, not so. 
Nice try though! 
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10-22-2008, 12:21 PM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 9,174
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
OK, before I'm accused of sampling the home-brew (or Kool-Aid) before lunch, of course the market is down - but....
The big drop came from the bursting of the housing and credit bubble (over-simplified, but hopefully close enough). But "drop" is relative to where we were. And, isn't "where we were" inflated by the housing and credit bubble (before they crashed)?
IOW, if lending money had been kept tighter, houses would not have risen so fast, and in general, the stock market would not have risen so fast. So, if that turn of events had not played out as it had, would we be looking at S&P500 @ ~ 900 anyhow? Which is UP from 800 in 2002.
But with the bubble, we went from 800, to 1500, and "dropped" to 900.
So, the market is UP, right?
Feel better now?
-ERD50 |
Is that single malt Scotch you've been drinking all morning?
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
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10-22-2008, 12:36 PM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 5,427
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Well, it is no longer morning here in the Central Time zone, so I could start.....
-ERD50
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10-22-2008, 12:38 PM
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#6
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 7,253
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And it's well after 5 PM in England. Cheers.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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10-22-2008, 12:25 PM
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#7
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 7,253
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"Down is up"? Is this the financial equivalent of Orwellian Doublespeak?
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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10-22-2008, 12:30 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 9,174
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
"Down is up"? Is this the financial equivalent of Orwellian Doublespeak?
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He needs more seminars with the spinmeisters in Washington DC........
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
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10-22-2008, 04:28 PM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,141
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I've been living in DC since 1982 and his post made perfectly good sense to me. 
__________________
Every man is, or hopes to be, an Idler. -- Samuel Johnson
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10-22-2008, 05:02 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: north of Kansas City
Posts: 6,188
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5.05% yield on Yahoo finance - foooor Pssst Wellesley.
Ahem, ahem - pouring steady drizzly rain North of KC - just reminds me of the Norwegian widow in the old PacNW in her rain slicker by the mailbox waiting for the mailman to bring those dividend checks.
  
Yeah yeah yeah - I know even stay the course and hurry up just stand there gets old.
I need to quit looking - maybe send to Netflix for Singing in The Rain or something.
heh heh heh - so whadda think? Pats win ugly - they really do have a good football team or what? This patience stuff can get old.
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10-22-2008, 05:13 PM
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#11
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 644
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unclemick
This patience stuff can get old.
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What Uncle Mick said . . .
-- Rita
__________________
Only got A dimple, would have preferred 2!
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10-22-2008, 12:41 PM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2008
Location: MD's Eastern Shore
Posts: 1,720
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
"Down is up"? Is this the financial equivalent of Orwellian Doublespeak?
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That depends on the definition of "is".
Personally, I sort of agree. I've been saying for years that the market was severely overvalued, and that we were facing either years of very low returns, or something like what's been happening this year. IMHO we're about where we should be. I'd rather (since I have available cash) be facing low prices with normal growth opportunities than having retired into years of very low or negative growth. So lets get to investing! yee-haw!
__________________
The only reason a great many American families don't own an elephant is that they have never been offered an elephant for a dollar down and easy weekly payments. - Mad Magazine
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
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10-22-2008, 12:35 PM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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if you own DXD, SDS and QID then down is the new up
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10-22-2008, 12:44 PM
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#14
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 3,431
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And it's really not down 4.4 percent for the day right now because a loss of $400 is only 2.85 percent of the Dow's highest ever....
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10-22-2008, 01:52 PM
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#15
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 151
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
OK, before I'm accused of sampling the home-brew (or Kool-Aid) before lunch, of course the market is down - but....
The big drop came from the bursting of the housing and credit bubble (over-simplified, but hopefully close enough). But "drop" is relative to where we were. And, isn't "where we were" inflated by the housing and credit bubble (before they crashed)?
IOW, if lending money had been kept tighter, houses would not have risen so fast, and in general, the stock market would not have risen so fast. So, if that turn of events had not played out as it had, would we be looking at S&P500 @ ~ 900 anyhow? Which is UP from 800 in 2002.
But with the bubble, we went from 800, to 1500, and "dropped" to 900.
So, the market is UP, right?
Feel better now?
-ERD50 |
Dude, this is why you should NOT do crack before lunch. 
__________________
Silent gratitude isn't much use to anyone.
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10-22-2008, 02:19 PM
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#16
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 7,253
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The good news is, each day the market falls 5% we lose less portfolio value than each previous time it fell 5%...
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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10-22-2008, 02:44 PM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 5,548
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Today it is REALLY down. As in "down a lot."
__________________
- Al -- Always serious, never joking. No, wait. Never serious... Always... I forget.
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10-22-2008, 02:46 PM
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#18
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 7,253
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl
Today it is REALLY down. As in "down a lot."
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This is headline news much as "Sun rises in the east" would be so.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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10-22-2008, 04:21 PM
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#19
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Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 16
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Some media stories cite weak earnings and slumping oil prices as fueling recession fears. A year ago, the rising price of oil was blamed, in part, for hurting the corporate bottom line. Now that dinosaur juice is dropping in price, it is again faulted. Are both correct?
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10-22-2008, 08:08 PM
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#20
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 973
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hershey102
Some media stories cite weak earnings and slumping oil prices as fueling recession fears. A year ago, the rising price of oil was blamed, in part, for hurting the corporate bottom line. Now that dinosaur juice is dropping in price, it is again faulted. Are both correct?
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I have yet to see any story blaming dropping oil prices for anything other than the weakness in oil companies.
It [the low price] is seen as a result of the world wide economic downturn rather than a cause.
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
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