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Is the market *really* DOWN?
Old 10-22-2008, 12:02 PM   #1
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Is the market *really* DOWN?

OK, before I'm accused of sampling the home-brew (or Kool-Aid) before lunch, of course the market is down - but....

The big drop came from the bursting of the housing and credit bubble (over-simplified, but hopefully close enough). But "drop" is relative to where we were. And, isn't "where we were" inflated by the housing and credit bubble (before they crashed)?

IOW, if lending money had been kept tighter, houses would not have risen so fast, and in general, the stock market would not have risen so fast. So, if that turn of events had not played out as it had, would we be looking at S&P500 @ ~ 900 anyhow? Which is UP from 800 in 2002.

But with the bubble, we went from 800, to 1500, and "dropped" to 900.

So, the market is UP, right?

Feel better now?

-ERD50
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Old 10-22-2008, 12:16 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
So, the market is UP, right?

Feel better now?

-ERD50



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Old 10-22-2008, 12:21 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
OK, before I'm accused of sampling the home-brew (or Kool-Aid) before lunch, of course the market is down - but....

The big drop came from the bursting of the housing and credit bubble (over-simplified, but hopefully close enough). But "drop" is relative to where we were. And, isn't "where we were" inflated by the housing and credit bubble (before they crashed)?

IOW, if lending money had been kept tighter, houses would not have risen so fast, and in general, the stock market would not have risen so fast. So, if that turn of events had not played out as it had, would we be looking at S&P500 @ ~ 900 anyhow? Which is UP from 800 in 2002.

But with the bubble, we went from 800, to 1500, and "dropped" to 900.

So, the market is UP, right?

Feel better now?

-ERD50
Yeahhhhhh,but...

That would be all well and good if I hadn't bought anything above the 900 level. Unfortunately, not so.

Nice try though!
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Old 10-22-2008, 12:21 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
OK, before I'm accused of sampling the home-brew (or Kool-Aid) before lunch, of course the market is down - but....

The big drop came from the bursting of the housing and credit bubble (over-simplified, but hopefully close enough). But "drop" is relative to where we were. And, isn't "where we were" inflated by the housing and credit bubble (before they crashed)?

IOW, if lending money had been kept tighter, houses would not have risen so fast, and in general, the stock market would not have risen so fast. So, if that turn of events had not played out as it had, would we be looking at S&P500 @ ~ 900 anyhow? Which is UP from 800 in 2002.

But with the bubble, we went from 800, to 1500, and "dropped" to 900.

So, the market is UP, right?

Feel better now?

-ERD50
Is that single malt Scotch you've been drinking all morning?
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Old 10-22-2008, 12:25 PM   #5
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"Down is up"? Is this the financial equivalent of Orwellian Doublespeak?
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Old 10-22-2008, 12:30 PM   #6
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"Down is up"? Is this the financial equivalent of Orwellian Doublespeak?
He needs more seminars with the spinmeisters in Washington DC........
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Old 10-22-2008, 12:35 PM   #7
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if you own DXD, SDS and QID then down is the new up
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Old 10-22-2008, 12:36 PM   #8
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Is that single malt Scotch you've been drinking all morning?
Well, it is no longer morning here in the Central Time zone, so I could start.....

-ERD50
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Old 10-22-2008, 12:38 PM   #9
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Well, it is no longer morning here in the Central Time zone, so I could start.....
And it's well after 5 PM in England. Cheers.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

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Old 10-22-2008, 12:41 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
"Down is up"? Is this the financial equivalent of Orwellian Doublespeak?
That depends on the definition of "is".

Personally, I sort of agree. I've been saying for years that the market was severely overvalued, and that we were facing either years of very low returns, or something like what's been happening this year. IMHO we're about where we should be. I'd rather (since I have available cash) be facing low prices with normal growth opportunities than having retired into years of very low or negative growth. So lets get to investing! yee-haw!
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Old 10-22-2008, 12:44 PM   #11
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And it's really not down 4.4 percent for the day right now because a loss of $400 is only 2.85 percent of the Dow's highest ever....
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Old 10-22-2008, 01:52 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
OK, before I'm accused of sampling the home-brew (or Kool-Aid) before lunch, of course the market is down - but....

The big drop came from the bursting of the housing and credit bubble (over-simplified, but hopefully close enough). But "drop" is relative to where we were. And, isn't "where we were" inflated by the housing and credit bubble (before they crashed)?

IOW, if lending money had been kept tighter, houses would not have risen so fast, and in general, the stock market would not have risen so fast. So, if that turn of events had not played out as it had, would we be looking at S&P500 @ ~ 900 anyhow? Which is UP from 800 in 2002.

But with the bubble, we went from 800, to 1500, and "dropped" to 900.

So, the market is UP, right?

Feel better now?

-ERD50
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Old 10-22-2008, 02:19 PM   #13
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The good news is, each day the market falls 5% we lose less portfolio value than each previous time it fell 5%...
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

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Old 10-22-2008, 02:44 PM   #14
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Today it is REALLY down. As in "down a lot."
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Old 10-22-2008, 02:46 PM   #15
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Today it is REALLY down. As in "down a lot."
This is headline news much as "Sun rises in the east" would be so.
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Old 10-22-2008, 04:21 PM   #16
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Some media stories cite weak earnings and slumping oil prices as fueling recession fears. A year ago, the rising price of oil was blamed, in part, for hurting the corporate bottom line. Now that dinosaur juice is dropping in price, it is again faulted. Are both correct?
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Old 10-22-2008, 04:28 PM   #17
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He needs more seminars with the spinmeisters in Washington DC........
I've been living in DC since 1982 and his post made perfectly good sense to me.
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Old 10-22-2008, 05:02 PM   #18
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Yeah yeah yeah - I know even stay the course and hurry up just stand there gets old.

I need to quit looking - maybe send to Netflix for Singing in The Rain or something.

heh heh heh - so whadda think? Pats win ugly - they really do have a good football team or what? This patience stuff can get old.
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Old 10-22-2008, 05:13 PM   #19
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This patience stuff can get old.
What Uncle Mick said . . .

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Old 10-22-2008, 05:56 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
And, isn't "where we were" inflated by the housing and credit bubble (before they crashed)?
But with the bubble, we went from 800, to 1500, and "dropped" to 900.
So, the market is UP, right?
Feel better now?
-ERD50
you just can't argue with data.
I do feel better. TY!
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