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Is the sky falling? Dow is way down any hope
Old 11-11-2007, 02:08 PM   #1
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Is the sky falling? Dow is way down any hope

for a rally before Christmas. Thanks PS All thought wimsical or thoughtful much apprciated.
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Old 11-11-2007, 02:29 PM   #2
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Dunno. Maybe. IMO, a lot of the selling is being done regardless of price or value, so I could easily see things rebounding short term.

But who cares? If you are investing in stocks, it should be for the long term (10+ years).
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Old 11-11-2007, 02:32 PM   #3
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I would not hold your breath for a Rally this year. I think the bears are out of hibernation and they are not going back to sleep for some time. After every party there is some cleaning up that needs to be done and usually a hangover to deal with. Of course, I could be wrong...
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Old 11-11-2007, 03:06 PM   #4
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After consulting the oracle, throwing the bones, reading the tea leaves, and extensively calculating the relative positions of the sun, moon and stars, (also taking into account, of course, the prophecies of Nostrodamus) my 100% guaranteed accurate forecast is that, over the next 6.5 months, the Dow Jones Industrial Average . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . will fluctuate.
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Old 11-11-2007, 03:59 PM   #5
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Quote:
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for a rally before Christmas. Thanks PS All thought wimsical or thoughtful much apprciated.
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Yes it's falling.

No hope.
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Old 11-11-2007, 04:04 PM   #6
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All thought wimsical or thoughtful much apprciated.
Here's a 'wimsical' thought : I don't know if the market will rally any time soon and I don't really care. I've got a life to live and enjoy, and I'm not about to waste much of it fretting about market fluctuations.

Next question....
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Old 11-11-2007, 04:20 PM   #7
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Yes, the market will absolutely rally....

Unless it doesn't
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Old 11-11-2007, 04:26 PM   #8
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Any hope of a rally before Christmas?
Sure! Anything could happen between now and then. There could be a rally (and I think there might be one, but how big? Hard telling). Or, the market could plunge further.

It seems to me that the worst market declines don't usually happen over Christmas, though I have no idea why not. Maybe I just haven't noticed.
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Old 11-11-2007, 04:26 PM   #9
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I tend to be in the camp that firmly believes the stock market will vary in price. However, I have been highly bullish for several years and still am. The "credit crunch" is an issue but it will get digested over the next few months. We may have a bank or two go under but I really don't think so. After that, we still have very high amounts of cash on the sidelines. The petrodollars need to be invested and right now the USA is "on sale." World growth is still strong.

The final bullish straw was cast on the camel's back this week. My SIL has informed DW that they have liquidated their stock holdings completely. Her husband is predicting a major price collapse. If they are typical of the investment community, we're about to turn the corner.
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Old 11-11-2007, 05:07 PM   #10
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I tend to be in the camp that firmly believes the stock market will vary in price. However, I have been highly bullish for several years and still am. The "credit crunch" is an issue but it will get digested over the next few months. We may have a bank or two go under but I really don't think so. After that, we still have very high amounts of cash on the sidelines. The petrodollars need to be invested and right now the USA is "on sale." World growth is still strong.

The final bullish straw was cast on the camel's back this week. My SIL has informed DW that they have liquidated their stock holdings completely. Her husband is predicting a major price collapse. If they are typical of the investment community, we're about to turn the corner.
For your sake, I hope you are better at predicting stock movements than you are at crude oil.

Ha
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Old 11-11-2007, 05:08 PM   #11
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Our economy has been remarkably resilient for the last few years. It'll be interesting to see if we can withstand everything that's being thrown at it now.

If we can make it past the largest housing bust in our history + an oil shock + going into debt over a dumb war + a credit crunch + a falling dollar without a deep prolonged recession, then I will become a cheerleading bull like you've never seen before.

I'm not saying a recession is inevitable, but if it happens, I just want everybody to promise not to blame the new democratic adminstration and the new higher tax rates. OK?
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Old 11-11-2007, 05:41 PM   #12
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My bet is on up for the rest of the year - too much negativity to keep things down My tea leaves show that my portfolio is still up 14% since the August break, so this break has not been nearly as broad based as August which killed me in every asset class. Once the financials turn this market is going to make new highs.

Plus I have actively considered shorting some stocks which is a sure sign of a turn
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Old 11-11-2007, 06:01 PM   #13
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i predict the stock market will rally before real estate does.
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Old 11-11-2007, 06:14 PM   #14
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I hear so much negative sentiment that I can't help but think it's a good contrarian sign for the market. Just the same, other than occasional rebalancing to buy more of whatever has recently been selling for less, most of what I have is in the market for 20-30 years or more so I'm not worried about it.

What the market does in the next couple of years has zero impact on where the market is in 20 years. All that will matter, plus or minus a margin of tracking error and short-term sentiment, is the health of corporate earnings.
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Old 11-11-2007, 06:37 PM   #15
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For your sake, I hope you are better at predicting stock movements than you are at crude oil.

Ha

Well taken but there is still a massive glut of crude oil on the market. It's totally in the hand of speculators. There is no oil "shortage."
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Old 11-11-2007, 06:44 PM   #16
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I'm not saying a recession is inevitable, but if it happens, I just want everybody to promise not to blame the new democratic adminstration and the new higher tax rates. OK?
The dems blamed Bush II for the recession that began before he took office. You certainly don't expect special treatment do you?

The dems have all the hallmarks of causing their own demise. There is a line of tax increases in the works. History says that will create an economic slowdown.

My suggestion is to become a political agnostic. They all do their own damage to the economy. Watch what goes on while they are in control and make your own estimates of the future. Being "in love" with any political ideology is usually detrimental to your financial well being.
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Old 11-11-2007, 06:46 PM   #17
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Real estate is in the crapper.

Bond and CD interest rates are in the neutral zone.

The stock market is still the place to be since the fundamentals (such as strong earnings) are still good.
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Old 11-11-2007, 08:31 PM   #18
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I wonder what will happen if there is an actual decline of significance?. Other than the financial issues, stocks have been up almost all year in the face of tremendous negative fundamentals. A truly major decline will be avoided if the banks do not actually have to come up with cold hard cash to repay the bad loan bets they have made. Right now there is a bunch of non-cash writedowns, it is the actual negative cash flow that would hurt the market.
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Old 11-11-2007, 09:14 PM   #19
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I hope that markets stay about where they are today. I am still up about 7% YTD. I would be happy with that. This latest downturn has not affected my portfolio as negatively as the August downturn did.
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Old 11-11-2007, 09:47 PM   #20
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Even with my dividend stocks averaged in with my Target Retirement 2015 - my current yield is ballpark 3%ish.

What would be comfy for my retirement would a nice quick 5 or 6000 point drop in the DOW to bring current yield closer to recent past decades.

Plus there might be more sectors of the market to go shopping since the Saint's aren't doing that well this year.

heh heh heh - just kidding - the market will fluctuate - after forty years(since 1966) it's had to get that excited anymore. Of course every generation there are always some rookies that get excited until they settle down and follow instructions.
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