Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Is there always a wall of worry to climb?
Old 03-20-2015, 08:40 AM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,390
Is there always a wall of worry to climb?

I ask because it does seem during bull markets it is NEVER crystal clear that we are in a bull market. There is always things to worry about. Inflation, deflation , interest rate rise, recession,etc. I understand why investors might be scared to invest. I am not referring to forum members. However, there will never be a time when it is obvious that things are going to be good in the markets. If it is, then I will be very scared. We will probraly be overbought at that point. IMO, we are not there yet, nor do I really care one way or the other. I just find it interesting how things work. Thoughts?
__________________
Understanding both the power of compound interest and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things. Charlie Munger

The first rule of compounding: Never interupt it unnecessarily. Charlie Munger
UnrealizedPotential is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-20-2015, 09:02 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Big_Hitter's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Les Bois
Posts: 5,761
keep a lot of cash
__________________
You can't be a retirement plan actuary without a retirement plan, otherwise you lose all credibility...
Big_Hitter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2015, 09:03 AM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
Not to say that I don't "adapt" to changing conditions, like reducing riskier asset classes like EM, or shortening the duration of my bond funds, but, generally speaking, I try not to "play" the market one way or the other.

I try to "own" assets, long-term, as investments. The guy/gal who owns the local hardware/grocery/liquor store doesn't buy and sell their business based on market movements...
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2015, 09:10 AM   #4
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 440
The problem in hindsight bias. I think Micky Mantle once commented that he didn't realize how easy baseball was until he was in the commentators booth.

My own experience is that I think I am far better at investing than I am and despite telling myself "buy low sell high" my human weaknesses practically guarantee the opposite behavior.

So.... I think it's really two choices:
1) if you have the temperament, you can spend a large amount of time understanding a few businesses really well and potentially beat "the market" consistently over a long period of time.
2) you can get market returns

I think anything in between is more or less luck waiting to meet disaster or the other way around .

Of course everyone has their opinion and hard to prove. The few investors on "richest" lists tend to be in category (1), but you need to look at the graveyard which probably has 100k bodies per person on the rich list. I'm fairly confident I know where I'd end up

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app
petershk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2015, 09:11 AM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Spanky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
The market is always risky. Know your risk tolerance, put aside cash for x years of expense or emergency funding, diversify, tune out the noise and stay the course.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
Spanky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2015, 09:17 AM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky View Post
The market is always risky. Know your risk tolerance, put aside cash for x years of expense or emergency funding, diversify, tune out the noise and stay the course.
Good answer.
__________________
Understanding both the power of compound interest and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things. Charlie Munger

The first rule of compounding: Never interupt it unnecessarily. Charlie Munger
UnrealizedPotential is offline   Reply With Quote
Is there always a wall of worry to climb?
Old 03-20-2015, 10:24 AM   #7
Moderator Emeritus
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,474
Is there always a wall of worry to climb?

For some people, yes. A lot depends on your individual temperament and confidence, and of course asset allocation.

We have been undergoing a strong bull market since 2009, and honestly I haven't seen any reason whatsoever to worry since that time. On the other hand, I don't listen to Cramer or other financial shows/news because none of them have the slightest clue.

It helps to look at market declines as opportunities to enrich oneself. My nestegg really grew a lot because I closed my eyes, grimaced, and then rebalanced during late 2008 and early 2009. I didn't buy as much as many others here, or as much as I could have, but I did buy and what a difference that made.

As the song goes, don't worry, be happy. We'll have plenty of time to worry when we get to the next market crash. I'd suggest taking the long term approach recommended by HFWR above, and never listening to or reading financial news or other financial shows or columns. Just stay the course.

Look at this chart, which I added via our good ol' edit function - - despite ups and downs, in the long term the trend is upwards.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg qa44.jpg (23.4 KB, 63 views)
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.

Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2015, 10:28 AM   #8
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,586
Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R View Post

It helps to look at market declines as opportunities to enrich oneself. My nestegg really grew a lot because I closed my eyes, grimaced, and then bought during late 2008 and early 2009. I didn't buy as much as many others here, or as much as I could have, but I did buy and what a difference that made.

As the song goes, don't worry, be happy. We'll have plenty of time to worry when we get to the next market crash.
This is really important. A sharp market decline is a problem, but also an opportunity. We can't prevent it or know when it will happen, so the best we can do is grit our teeth and take advantage of it.
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2015, 11:07 AM   #9
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 584
There is always something to worry about if you choose to do so. If you KNEW you were in a bull market you could always worry about it crashing tomorrow. Maybe the Japanese will attack Pearly Harbor again from a base they built on the dark side of the moon during WWII... Your mind can always find something to worry about.
ArkTinkerer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2015, 12:04 PM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Sunset's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 17,012
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArkTinkerer View Post
There is always something to worry about if you choose to do so. If you KNEW you were in a bull market you could always worry about it crashing tomorrow. Maybe the Japanese will attack Pearly Harbor again from a base they built on the dark side of the moon during WWII... Your mind can always find something to worry about.
Odd statement as they are our Allies and trade partners.

More likely would be terrorist flying planes into Sears/Hancock towers. A proven technique. Both would take out the CBOE.

Or return of cold war, since Putin has said he alerted Russian nuke forces since people didn't like his most recent land acquisition .
Sunset is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2015, 12:55 PM   #11
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 584
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset View Post
Odd statement as they are our Allies and trade partners.
.
I was thinking about a bad movie that was available on netflix. I recall now it was about Germans on the dark side of the moon not Japanese. They say memory is the second to go... I forget the first....
ArkTinkerer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2015, 01:57 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Big_Hitter's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Les Bois
Posts: 5,761
Actually that is a good movie on Netflix.
__________________
You can't be a retirement plan actuary without a retirement plan, otherwise you lose all credibility...
Big_Hitter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2015, 02:20 PM   #13
Gone but not forgotten
imoldernu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Peru
Posts: 6,335
My time is spent trying to understand the macro economy, for the US and Internationally. Enough for me.
Understanding the stock market? Beyond comprehension.

Wednesday I filled up one car @ $2.13/gal.
Thursday... same station, the other car... $2.39/gal.
go figger!
imoldernu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2015, 02:40 PM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Big_Hitter's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Les Bois
Posts: 5,761
^ volatility is volatile
__________________
You can't be a retirement plan actuary without a retirement plan, otherwise you lose all credibility...
Big_Hitter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2015, 03:30 PM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
Wall of worry?

Putin. ISIS, Boko Harum, Hezbollah, etc. Iran with near nuke capabilites, NK and Pakistan already in the club. Global warming. Drought. Bird flu. Ebola. Justin Bieber...


Sent from my iCouch using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2015, 03:33 PM   #16
Moderator Emeritus
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,474
Quote:
Originally Posted by HFWR View Post
Wall of worry?

Putin. ISIS, Boko Harum, Hezbollah, etc. Iran with near nuke capabilites, NK and Pakistan already in the club. Global warming. Drought. Bird flu. Ebola. Justin Bieber...
Justin Bieber? You worry about Justin Bieber? That little twerp. I think he and Miley Cyrus are a matched set and should really start going out.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.

Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2015, 05:05 PM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
gcgang's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,568
There's always stuff to worry about. So, don't worry about it. Be happy.

But don't take any more risk than you need to meet your own personal goals. As I'm now retired, reducing stock exposure as the market has run up has allowed me to worry less, even though I know I'm not "maximizing" returns.




Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
You know that suit they burying you in? Thar ain’t no pockets in that suit, boy.
gcgang is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2015, 08:45 AM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R View Post
Justin Bieber? You worry about Justin Bieber? That little twerp. I think he and Miley Cyrus are a matched set and should really start going out.

ImageUploadedByEarly Retirement Forum1426949136.720981.jpg


Sent from my iCouch using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2015, 09:37 AM   #19
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 249
Quote:
Originally Posted by HFWR View Post
Attachment 21325


Sent from my iCouch using Early Retirement Forum
LOL!
Mango1956 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2015, 09:42 AM   #20
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 584
Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R View Post
Justin Bieber? You worry about Justin Bieber? That little twerp. I think he and Miley Cyrus are a matched set and should really start going out.
You want them to reproduce??
ArkTinkerer is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
There is a always a bubble in something. clifp Active Investing, Market Strategies & Alternative Assets 4 08-29-2010 05:03 AM
How To Climb Out of the Global Financial Hole dex FIRE and Money 5 02-22-2009 06:25 PM
Jeremy Siegel's "soothing" wall of worry Nords FIRE and Money 17 09-05-2006 10:27 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:08 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.