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01-15-2015, 09:31 AM
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#21
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,390
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Not knowing the answer to this question is precisely the reason I dollar cost average at all times.
__________________
Understanding both the power of compound interest and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things. Charlie Munger
The first rule of compounding: Never interupt it unnecessarily. Charlie Munger
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01-15-2015, 09:34 AM
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#22
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: San Diego
Posts: 144
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2B
Are you trying to tempt me? If so, it's not working. I don't have any desire to live in San Diego.
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I already live in San Diego, and I'm not tempted!
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01-15-2015, 10:17 AM
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#23
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 1,500
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliforniaMan
Yes it's really a terrible place. We have earthquakes, droughts, even hail sometimes, the traffic is awful and too much time at the beach can give you skin cancer. You want to die of that? Crowds are terrible and people are nasty. Please everyone stay away.
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Attachment 20928And snow! Don't forget the great blizzard of 2015!!
__________________
Chief Retirement Strategist
The AR Group
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01-15-2015, 10:18 AM
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#24
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliforniaMan
Yes it's really a terrible place. We have earthquakes, droughts, even hail sometimes, the traffic is awful and too much time at the beach can give you skin cancer. You want to die of that? Crowds are terrible and people are nasty. Please everyone stay away.
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It does not deter people flocking into the area.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
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01-15-2015, 10:22 AM
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#25
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Accidental Retiree
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I think the snow fell only in the high desert area.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
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01-15-2015, 10:29 AM
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#26
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Texas
Posts: 3,024
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Quote:
Originally Posted by laurence
...I think all this volatility is mostly oil driven. The market is sorting out losers and some are cashing in profits. But the economy's fundamentals are about to wash over this. We are offering 3-5k referral bonuses for skilled engineers at my company. We. Simply. Can't. Find. Them. But hey, it's only San Diego so nobody wants to live here right.....?
Despite wage stagnation pent up demand for skilled labor is going to force major corporations to finally blink and start upping their pay. Wages --->Consumer Spending---->low gas prices---->more consumer spending...
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Many think that the sharp drop in oil and other commodities cannot be explained away as over-supply in an otherwise healthy global economy. There is another school of thought that says lower commodity pricing indicates a broad-based drop in consumer demand that hasn't yet revealed itself in other indices. I think the recent market volatility is driven by these competing viewpoints about the cause and effect of lower commodity prices, especially oil, and how this plays out in the coming months and years. So, for now, it's just the typical volatility as the markets try to figure out their new trajectory based on this new information. Personally, I have no idea when or which direction, nor will I take any drastic action as a result.
Regarding wages, someone mentioned in another thread that we are in the early/middle stages of a global wage equalization process that could take decades to complete. I agree with this. When Megacorp can't find the engineers they need in the U.S., they will open "engineering design centers" in India and China, where supply is high and wages are low, but increasing 15% per year. Offshoring is no longer limited to manufacturing and call centers. Eventually, wages will be based on education, skill, productivity, creativity, results, etc... not what country you live in. So, hopefully I'm wrong, but I don't realistically expect major corporations in the U.S. and Europe to start increasing real wages for a very long time.
__________________
Retired at 52 in July 2013. On to better things...
AA: 85/15 WR: 2.7% SI: 2 pensions, SS later
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01-15-2015, 10:56 AM
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#27
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,154
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gunnychapman
Agreed. Market goes up, market goes down. Just wanted to see some discussion. Always fascinates me to read the common sense comments that prevails on this blog.
Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
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You are just looking for some "common sense"?
How about - this doesn't come close to a correction. And you can never tell when one has "started".
Let the S&P500 drop below 1150 1850 and then maybe I'll wake up.
What we have is increased volatility.
And until oil stops dropping and stabilizes, we'll probably have this kind of volatility. Can't be too much longer - maybe a couple more months.
Of course other things may cause increased volatility after that - you never know.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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01-15-2015, 10:58 AM
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#28
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,154
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San Diego is beautiful.
Way better than Texas......
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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01-15-2015, 11:12 AM
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#29
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2B
I don't have any desire to live in San Diego.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
San Diego is beautiful.
Way better than Texas......
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I lived in both SD and Texas and agree with both of you that all should stay away from both.
Come to Louisiana! Laissez les bons temps rouler, and spend all your money here. We need it.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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01-15-2015, 11:43 AM
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#30
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Madison
Posts: 1,337
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Lets say this correction then turns into a Bear market. One is bound to come sometime and this is as good as any time. Lets say its a semi-mild one that goes down 22%.
What I'm wondering is how fast we come out of it. Will it take 5 years like the Great Recession? Or will the market turn around quickly and hit new highs in 1-2 years?
__________________
Wild Bill shoulda taken more out of his IRA when he could have. . . .
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01-15-2015, 12:34 PM
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#31
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
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Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R
I lived in both SD and Texas and agree with both of you that all should stay away from both.
Come to Louisiana! Laissez les bons temps rouler, and spend all your money here. We need it.
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Portland, Seattle, Denver, greater Baltimore, New Orleans(30 yrs.), San Diego, Reno, Port Aransas.
Kansas City is the place. I got silly neighbors who go to Texas and actually like being called winter Texans.
So chickenhearted me - take part of RMD from accounts first part of January and then the rest in Feb. Do I believe in the January effect/predictor - welll remember back in the day before 'born again indexing' I often would emit a pssst Wellesley.
heh heh heh - now commiting the ultimate sin unclemicks yankee red jambalaya - Bickelmeyers smoked sausage, Costco shrimp, holy trinity, Uncle Ben's and Pace picante instead of diced or pinced tomato.
ok, ok so we'll hit Port Aransas, Corpus and Mission for a few weeks in Feb and may or may not visit relatives in San Diego.
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01-15-2015, 12:36 PM
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#32
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Crownsville
Posts: 3,746
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Nah, if I recall correctly, that long-awaited correction happened back in September/October, didn't it?
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01-15-2015, 02:32 PM
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#33
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Bay Area
Posts: 2,745
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
San Diego is beautiful.
Way better than Texas......
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Texas is beautiful. Way better than Tijuana.
Back to OP, it's traders market for now. Once it drops another 7-8% from today's close, we can call it a small correction. Move on, folks. Nothing to see here ... yet.
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01-15-2015, 02:44 PM
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#34
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Eastern WV Panhandle
Posts: 25,346
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliforniaMan
Yes it's really a terrible place. We have earthquakes, droughts, even hail sometimes, the traffic is awful and too much time at the beach can give you skin cancer. You want to die of that? Crowds are terrible and people are nasty. Please everyone stay away.
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Now, if I was suspicious, I'd think you were like REWahoo on Texas. While lots of people live there and even seem to be thriving, he is doing is best to keep it all to himself as best he can.
__________________
When I was a kid I wanted to be older. This is not what I expected.
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01-15-2015, 03:43 PM
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#35
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,390
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If this downturn is a correction, nobody has told the Real Estate Investment Trust stocks. They have held up beautifully through this.
__________________
Understanding both the power of compound interest and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things. Charlie Munger
The first rule of compounding: Never interupt it unnecessarily. Charlie Munger
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01-15-2015, 03:47 PM
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#36
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,154
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unclemick
Portland, Seattle, Denver, greater Baltimore, New Orleans(30 yrs.), San Diego, Reno, Port Aransas.
Kansas City is the place. I got silly neighbors who go to Texas and actually like being called winter Texans.
So chickenhearted me - take part of RMD from accounts first part of January and then the rest in Feb. Do I believe in the January effect/predictor - welll remember back in the day before 'born again indexing' I often would emit a pssst Wellesley.
heh heh heh - now commiting the ultimate sin unclemicks yankee red jambalaya - Bickelmeyers smoked sausage, Costco shrimp, holy trinity, Uncle Ben's and Pace picante instead of diced or pinced tomato.
ok, ok so we'll hit Port Aransas, Corpus and Mission for a few weeks in Feb and may or may not visit relatives in San Diego.
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Seriously? You're coming to Mission, TX?
What - are you on a birding trip or something?
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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01-15-2015, 03:50 PM
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#37
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,154
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UnrealizedPotential
If this downturn is a correction, nobody has told the Real Estate Investment Trust stocks. They have held up beautifully through this.
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They're partying on the drop in interest rates. But after a while they'll probably get spooked too as credit crises are not good for REITs.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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01-15-2015, 04:00 PM
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#38
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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Quote:
Let the S&P500 drop below 1150 and then maybe I'll wake up.
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That would wake everyone up!
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
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01-15-2015, 04:02 PM
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#39
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
They're partying on the drop in interest rates. But after a while they'll probably get spooked too as credit crises are not good for REITs.
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Oh, if this turns into a big correction, yes REITS will feel the pain at some point.
__________________
Understanding both the power of compound interest and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things. Charlie Munger
The first rule of compounding: Never interupt it unnecessarily. Charlie Munger
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01-15-2015, 04:04 PM
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#40
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,154
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky
That would wake everyone up!
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Dang typos! I meant 1850.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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