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Old 04-06-2016, 07:54 PM   #41
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Another way you can tell honest intellectuals from cranks is to see if their ideas, positions, and recommendations change as situations change.

Just to pick an example at random, if every single scenario is a reason to buy gold, then you have to question the wisdom of that recommendation and the authenticity of the source.
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Old 04-07-2016, 05:13 AM   #42
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I run into this article and not sure how true it is in regard to consequences of USD replacement by the SDR. What do you think?

James Rickards: Secret 'Shanghai Accord' kills USD and crowns SDR TRUNEWS with Rick Wiles
James Rickards ... currently serves as the capital markets advisor to the Director of National Intelligence and the Office of the Secretary of Defense.

LOLOL - I wonder if they know he is making this claim...
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Old 04-07-2016, 08:26 AM   #43
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James Rickards ... currently serves as the capital markets advisor to the Director of National Intelligence and the Office of the Secretary of Defense.
LOLOL - I wonder if they know he is making this claim...
Considering how widely he publishes this claim I'd be surprised if they weren't aware of it. Have no idea how to verify it since there doesn't seem to be a simple list of advisors to that office that I can find.

For all the bashing this guy has gotten on this discussion thread, I'm surprised to see he's got enough acceptance to have made a presentation to a Senate Subcommittee. I did a quick search on a US Government website and found:

Testimony of James G. Rickards, Senior Managing Director, Tangent Capital Partners LLC, New York, NY, Before the Subcommittee on Economic Policy Committee on Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs United States Senate, March 28, 2012
Written Statement: Retirement (In)security: Examining the Retirement Savings Deficit




Actually is interesting (especially in hindsight) , 13 page read discussing from 2012 perspective the government plan to drop interest rates to near zero and the impact on retirement savings.

Can agree or disagree with his conclusions/recommendations but I don't see the evidence to suggest he's a kook or that his ideas are unworthy of consideration.


Ref:

Government search page - https://search.usa.gov/search?utf8=%...james+rickards

Link to his written statement - http://www.banking.senate.gov/public...ony32812ep.pdf
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Old 04-07-2016, 09:44 AM   #44
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For all the bashing this guy has gotten on this discussion thread, I'm surprised to see he's got enough acceptance to have made a presentation to a Senate Subcommittee.
Perhaps you haven't noticed that a certain segment of our elected representatives support gold buggery.

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Actually is interesting (especially in hindsight) , 13 page read discussing from 2012 perspective the government plan to drop interest rates to near zero and the impact on retirement savings.
It is interesting that the style, tone, and substance of his Senate testimony bears zero resemblance to the article linked in the OP.

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Can agree or disagree with his conclusions/recommendations but I don't see the evidence to suggest he's a kook or that his ideas are unworthy of consideration.
Except that he does seem to have two different presentations for two different audiences.

And now with the benefit of hindsight we can make some pronouncements about his more tempered recommendation before the Senate from four years ago:

Quote:
Solutions are straightforward. The Fed should raise interest rates immediately by a modest amount of one-half of one percent and signal that other rate increases will be coming. The White House and Treasury should signal that they support the Fed’s move and support a strong dollar as well.
The Fed and treasury didn't take Rickard's advice to raise rates and talk up the dollar in 2012. So what happened? Did inflation rise and the dollar fall?

Nope.

CPI inflation continued a downward trend below the Fed's 2% target.



And the US dollar rallied by 25%.



Now we should stop to consider what would have happened had the Fed taken Rickard's advice and raised rates in 2012 and signaled much tighter monetary policy going forward. Would inflation have declined more and faster than it actually did? Would economic growth have undershot projections even more than it did? Both seem highly likely. More than that, it seems almost certain it would have pushed us into another recession.

So after being completely wrong, has Rickard re-evaluated his analysis? Has he changed his recommendations? Nope. Same old same old. Full gold ahead.
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Old 04-07-2016, 01:37 PM   #45
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Rickards points out to business cycles (growth vs Recessions) what is always cyclical. The last recovery started in 2011 and soon (nobody knows when) we might be in recession cycle again. Then if Feds have near 0% interest rate now, how they are going to fight the recession? Of course there are negative rates (like in EU currently), helicopter money (something new what I do not understand) or another QE in Feds arsenal. Could it trigger an inflation higher than Feds projected 2%? That is his explanation.
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Old 04-07-2016, 01:54 PM   #46
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Rickards points out to business cycles (growth vs Recessions) what is always cyclical. The last recovery started in 2011 and soon (nobody knows when) we might be in recession cycle again. Then if Feds have near 0% interest rate now, how they are going to fight the recession? Of course there are negative rates (like in EU currently), helicopter money (something new what I do not understand) or another QE in Feds arsenal. Could it trigger an inflation higher than Feds projected 2%? That is his explanation.
Is the recession we're imagining deflationary? Because that is the typical recession profile (higher unemployment and weaker inflation).

So if we have a deflationary recession at a time when inflation is already below the Fed's 2% target, why are we worrying about above target inflation in this hypothetical scenario?

And is the suggestion to raise rates now, potentially causing a recession, so that the Fed has more room to lower rates to fight the recession it will likely have caused?
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Old 04-07-2016, 03:05 PM   #47
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Is the recession we're imagining deflationary? Because that is the typical recession profile (higher unemployment and weaker inflation).

So if we have a deflationary recession at a time when inflation is already below the Fed's 2% target, why are we worrying about above target inflation in this hypothetical scenario?

And is the suggestion to raise rates now, potentially causing a recession, so that the Fed has more room to lower rates to fight the recession it will likely have caused?
The only worry here that inflation may go out of control while you are right that in times of recession and higher unemployment, it is usually deflation not inflation. However Rickards points out that there is still shadowy Gold standard going on in major Central Banks. US still keeps 8,130Tons of Gold, combined EU Gold vaults have over 10,000 Tons, China officially has 1,700 Tons but unofficially (if take a portion of China imported and produced Gold goes to PBOC) it is closer to 4,000Tons, Russia 1,415 Tons etc. If people / Banks are willing to pay good price for something well above jewelry demand, why Central Banks not selling it and some keep active purchases?
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Old 04-08-2016, 12:59 AM   #48
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Perhaps you haven't noticed that a certain segment of our elected representatives support gold buggery.
If I understand the term "gold buggery", it's a derogatory name used by those who support the current fiat monetary system for those who support the old gold standard. I have no interest in what is used as the monetary basis so honestly don't care about who supports what on that topic.

The point of my post was to honestly consider the question in an earlier post about if our government knew of Rickards claims to be capital markets advisor to the Director of National Intelligence and the Office of the Secretary of Defense. The question interested me. The fact that this claim has been made so widely and that he was testifying in front of congress supports the likelihood that he is not just some kook hiding away somewhere making bogus claims that the government is unaware of. I assume by your lengthy response that you disagree with that point. Fine.

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It is interesting that the style, tone, and substance of his Senate testimony bears zero resemblance to the article linked in the OP. Except that he does seem to have two different presentations for two different audiences. And now with the benefit of hindsight we can make some pronouncements about his more tempered recommendation before the Senate from four years ago:......The Fed and treasury didn't take Rickard's advice to raise rates and talk up the dollar in 2012. So what happened? Did inflation rise and the dollar fall? Nope.
Gee....a financial outlook that didn't pan out ....I am shocked. If I decided to bash every person whose guesses on the country's future outlook don't pan out...I don't think I'd have time to do anything else.

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Now we should stop to consider what would have happened had the Fed taken Rickard's advice and raised rates in 2012 and signaled much tighter monetary policy going forward. Would inflation have declined more and faster than it actually did? Would economic growth have undershot projections even more than it did? Both seem highly likely. More than that, it seems almost certain it would have pushed us into another recession.
Now there's is a good, safe prediction on a financial outlook. Safe since we didn't take those steps so the data isn't there to refute it. Oh yes, we can guess based on history and our pet theories but that's the best we can do. Unfortunately history is often different than the present and our simple models / conclusions may not apply well to a complex financial world system if we miss some key factor. So different people may come to different conclusions based on the same data. Oh well, I think it's time for me to move onto other topics. Not learning much new here.
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Old 04-08-2016, 07:58 AM   #49
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Gee....a financial outlook that didn't pan out ....I am shocked.
Perhaps you should take a closer look.

Because it is not one financial prediction that didn't pan out. It is the SAME financial prediction that hasn't panned out since he started making it going back to at least 2009. And that hasn't deterred him from making it again and again.

And he's been making his predictions with the most hyperbolic language possible . . .from the OP "When economic collapse comes, there will be “money riots”, people will burn down banks, governments will respond with a neo-fascist police state and martial law."

These aren't financial predictions. It's scare mongering. And it's scare mongering designed for a specific purpose. And what purpose is that? I'll let Rickards speak for himself . . .

"A minimum of 10% assets in physical gold ownership is a great hedge against these emerging currency wars."

So pulling it all together. Rickard makes financial forecasts that always conclude the economy is about to collapse. He never changes those forecasts when the economy doesn't collapse because he's not in the business of making accurate forecasts. He's in the business of selling Gold. And economic forecasts of economic collapse are good for selling gold.
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Old 04-09-2016, 11:04 PM   #50
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The only worry here that inflation may go out of control while you are right that in times of recession and higher unemployment, it is usually deflation not inflation. However Rickards points out that there is still shadowy Gold standard going on in major Central Banks. US still keeps 8,130Tons of Gold, combined EU Gold vaults have over 10,000 Tons, China officially has 1,700 Tons but unofficially (if take a portion of China imported and produced Gold goes to PBOC) it is closer to 4,000Tons, Russia 1,415 Tons etc. If people / Banks are willing to pay good price for something well above jewelry demand, why Central Banks not selling it and some keep active purchases?
Canada has nearly finished selling off all of it's gold.
A country does not need to store gold, if it needed to "buy" something it could trade steel ore, minerals, oil. All of which have a world value.
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Old 04-10-2016, 07:06 AM   #51
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Canada has nearly finished selling off all of it's gold.
A country does not need to store gold, if it needed to "buy" something it could trade steel ore, minerals, oil. All of which have a world value.
Venezuela and Ukraine have also sold a major portion of their Gold reserves due to the bad economic decline and need to pay their imports.
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Old 04-10-2016, 10:41 AM   #52
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So pulling it all together... He's in the business of selling Gold. And economic forecasts of economic collapse are good for selling gold.
Also, books.
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Old 04-30-2016, 03:18 PM   #53
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Jim Rickards is Gold sales pusher but his Currency Wars book looks like right on money. Treasury secretary Jack Lew latest response on currencies manipulations:
US places 5 countries on trade monitoring list - Business Insider
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Old 04-30-2016, 05:31 PM   #54
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Jim Rickards is Gold sales pusher but his Currency Wars book looks like right on money.
What part of this Amazon description of Currency Wars (published 2011) is right on the money?

Quote:
Left unchecked, the next currency war could lead to a crisis worse than the panic of 2008.

Time and again, paper currencies have collapsed, assets have been frozen, gold has been confiscated, and capital controls have been imposed. And the next crash is overdue. Recent headlines about the debasement of the dollar, bailouts in Greece and Ireland, and Chinese currency manipulation are all indicators of the growing conflict.

The United States is facing serious threats to its national security, from clandestine gold purchases by China to the hidden agendas of sovereign wealth funds. Greater than any single threat is the very real danger of the collapse of the dollar itself.

While the outcome of the new currency war is not yet certain, some version of the worst-case scenario is almost inevitable if U.S. and world economic leaders fail to learn from the mistakes of their predecessors
Seriously, is there a statute of limitation on any of these predictions? Tick-tock.
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Old 05-01-2016, 08:31 AM   #55
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The currencies manipulation or the Currency war causes swings in trade between countries in favor of lower cost producers. That is why all 5 countries which are on the US watch list have advantage in trade (from Jack Lew statement US places 5 countries on trade monitoring list - Business Insider.
That what Mr Rickards explained in his 2011 Currency War book.
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Old 05-01-2016, 09:00 AM   #56
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The currencies manipulation or the Currency war causes swings in trade between countries in favor of lower cost producers. That is why all 5 countries which are on the US watch list have advantage in trade (from Jack Lew statement US places 5 countries on trade monitoring list - Business Insider.
That what Mr Rickards explained in his 2011 Currency War book.

So Mr. Rickards gets credit for publishing a book revealing that China, for example, is managing their currency. And he gets credit for that even though it's been the long-standing official and public policy of China to manage their currency.

Hooray, he read a Wikipedia entry!

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For most of its early history, the RMB was pegged to the U.S. dollar at ¥2.46 per USD. When China's economy gradually opened in the 1980s, the RMB was devalued in order to improve the competitiveness of Chinese exports. . .
Meanwhile we don't hold it against him that none of his actual predictions have come true. The dollar hasn't collapsed. Gold hasn't been confiscated. There's been no "money riots." Banks haven't been burned. Martial law hasn't been enforced. And on and on.

And while the predictions in his first book keep failing to materialize he keeps publishing new books making the exact same forecasts based on the exact same arguments.

Why is it not obvious that he's a complete charlatan?
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Old 05-01-2016, 09:57 AM   #57
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...
Why is it not obvious that he's a complete charlatan?
+1 Nicely put, but don't forget that...

“It is the obvious which is so difficult to see most of the time. People say 'It's as plain as the nose on your face.' But how much of the nose on your face can you see, unless someone holds a mirror up to you?” - Isaac Asimov

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Old 05-01-2016, 11:07 AM   #58
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And while the predictions in his first book keep failing to materialize he keeps publishing new books making the exact same forecasts based on the exact same arguments.

Why is it not obvious that he's a complete charlatan?
+2.
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Old 05-08-2016, 08:02 PM   #59
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I thought we were going cashless...
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