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It kills me that they were right...
Old 11-21-2008, 12:22 PM   #1
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It kills me that they were right...

I've spent the past 13 months arguing with people that the ecomonic outlook was not as bad as it was being depicted by the media and how, in any event, the market is efficient and the bad news was therefore being priced in. Obviously I was wrong.

I therefore owe apologies to Messrs Schiff, Roubini, Schiller, Battataglia, and Cramer, most of the analysts on Fox Business and CNBC, the 21 year-old guy in the IT department, my brother in law, and the guy at my kids' school mixer that said we're about to sink into a depression that will make us wish it was 1932. I feel stupid.
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Old 11-21-2008, 12:24 PM   #2
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I want an apology from the greedy folks who cooked up this mess of subprime poo that we are wading through as taxpayers, right before I smile and punch them each in the mouth as hard as I can.........
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Old 11-21-2008, 12:26 PM   #3
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I want an apology from the greedy folks who cooked up this mess of subprime poo that we are wading through as taxpayers, right before I smile and punch them each in the mouth as hard as I can.........
Well at least you're gonna smile.........
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Old 11-21-2008, 12:33 PM   #4
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They'll be smiling too...

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Old 11-21-2008, 12:34 PM   #5
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They'll be smiling too...

..........
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Old 11-21-2008, 02:44 PM   #6
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I've spent the past 13 months arguing with people that the ecomonic outlook was not as bad as it was being depicted by the media and how, in any event, the market is efficient and the bad news was therefore being priced in. Obviously I was wrong.

I therefore owe apologies to Messrs Schiff, Roubini, Schiller, Battataglia, and Cramer, most of the analysts on Fox Business and CNBC, the 21 year-old guy in the IT department, my brother in law, and the guy at my kids' school mixer that said we're about to sink into a depression that will make us wish it was 1932. I feel stupid.
Yeah, I can't believe that you couldn't see that the 25% unemployed starving in the bread lines weren't an indication that we're in the new Great Dpression. I'm just about ready to move out of my nice waterfront house into a tent city. And I'm sure the rioting will start just as soon as the hungry masses finish watching their TV shows tonight. sheesh.

And personally, I'd rather starve than ever admit Cramer was right about anything. By the way, which rightness are you apologising about? He flops around on the issues like a beached fish. Right now people are paying more attention to "the sky is falling", so he's all over that. As soon as things start to improve he'll be screaming that you were an idiot for not following his "buy low" recommendations.

Now Roubini and Schiller, I give them some credit. But even Roubini is saying the recession will be the worst in 50 years. Not the GD.
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Old 11-21-2008, 02:58 PM   #7
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Have you seen Cramer's new commercials on CNBC? "In Cramer we trust". Somebody definitely think very highly of himself... The last thing we need is someone to apologize to him and inflate his ego even more. I'm surprised CNBC isn't selling little Cramerican dolls you hang on your computer screen to help "bless" your online trades. Say your prayer and press enter...
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Old 11-21-2008, 04:14 PM   #8
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Have you seen Cramer's new commercials on CNBC? "In Cramer we trust". Somebody definitely think very highly of himself... The last thing we need is someone to apologize to him and inflate his ego even more. I'm surprised CNBC isn't selling little Cramerican dolls you hang on your computer screen to help "bless" your online trades. Say your prayer and press enter...
Imagine how good it feels to hear incessantly from an acquantance about all the money he's made using levered ETFs to short sectors based on what he's heard Cramer say on TV. He knows nothing about the efficient market hypothesis, real vs nominal returns, proper asset diversification, etc. Cramer says trade something and he does it.

I know that maybe over the very, very, long run I might outperform this guy, but at least over the past 13 months I've been the schmuck (sp).
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Old 11-21-2008, 05:16 PM   #9
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Imagine how good it feels to hear incessantly from an acquantance about all the money he's made using levered ETFs to short sectors based on what he's heard Cramer say on TV. He knows nothing about the efficient market hypothesis, real vs nominal returns, proper asset diversification, etc. Cramer says trade something and he does it.

I know that maybe over the very, very, long run I might outperform this guy, but at least over the past 13 months I've been the schmuck (sp).
I shorted the market starting in 08/2007 and I made a 25% profit in just 12 months... sounds impressive right? Well kinda. It's true, I purchased a bear market fund last year and sold it recently making a 25% profit along the way. It might sound like I did great while everyone got slaughtered right? Well, the bear fund represented only a small fraction of my portfolio. The rest of my portfolio still tanked with the market and, like most everyone else, I was taken behind the woodshed and shot too... But that's not the truth I would want people to hear if I wanted to impress (or irritate) them...

So don't worry. The guy made some money. Good for him. But unless you know all the details about the his portfolio, it could be the tree hiding the forest... A friend a mine who is a day trader keeps bragging about the killing he made with shorts this year. But his wife told mine that if he is making any money day trading, he must hide it very well...

Remember that Cramer's predictions and recommendations are FAR from perfect. Wasn't he the guy who insisted that "Bear Stearns is fine" just days before it went kaboom? Win some, lose some. But only brag about the wins...

P.S.: I wish I could say I saw it coming, but I'd be lying. I thought we were due for a correction after a 4-year bull market (that's why I bought the bear market fund), but I never imagined that we would be in the mess we're in right now! Otherwise I would have put ALL my money in a bear fund!
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Old 11-21-2008, 07:07 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by newporttony View Post
Imagine how good it feels to hear incessantly from an acquantance about all the money he's made using levered ETFs to short sectors based on what he's heard Cramer say on TV. He knows nothing about the efficient market hypothesis, real vs nominal returns, proper asset diversification, etc. Cramer says trade something and he does it.

I know that maybe over the very, very, long run I might outperform this guy, but at least over the past 13 months I've been the schmuck (sp).

You may have been wrong about market for the last 13 months--but, I'm pretty sure you spelled "schmuck" correctly. Have a nice day.
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Old 11-21-2008, 07:19 PM   #11
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I am not a professional on these matters, but I am self-employed and in charge of how my (self-setup) portfolio is allocated. I usually read a few different resources, both hard-copy and internet to see what the global economy is doing. Late last year I got a gut feeling (cheesy, I know) that something really bad was going to happen to the economy (I did not know when) so I moved a lot of my higher-risk funds into much safer vehicles. I am so glad I did. Sure, when the market rebounds I might not "make" as much money, but I am more secure right now.
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Old 11-21-2008, 08:01 PM   #12
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And personally, I'd rather starve than ever admit Cramer was right about anything.
When you jump from yelling "Sell EVERYTHING" on one show to screaming "BUY, BUY, BUY" on the next, you can generally replay a tape proving you were right regardless of what happens.
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Old 11-21-2008, 08:19 PM   #13
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Imagine how good it feels to hear incessantly from an acquantance about all the money he's made using levered ETFs to short sectors based on what he's heard Cramer say on TV. He knows nothing about the efficient market hypothesis, real vs nominal returns, proper asset diversification, etc. Cramer says trade something and he does it.

I know that maybe over the very, very, long run I might outperform this guy, but at least over the past 13 months I've been the schmuck (sp).
You're kidding right?

If you're not I'd really, really, really, ask to see the brokerage statements proving that he's made all kinds of money following Cramer's advice. I'd be willing to bet a large chuck of change your acquaintance is just blowing smoke. The next time he mouths off you might ask him how he missed buying Bear Stearns like Cramer recommended. Or, you might ask why he'd give up the opportunity to make BILLIONS as a hedge fund manager so he can earn a couple of million dispensing his great wisdom to everyone who can afford cable television. He's a joke, and a fraud.

I've literally seen back to back shows where Cramer has changed buys to sells on the same company. It couldn't be more random if monkeys were throwing darts. It's bad enough that Barron's did a whole article about how his picks blow. They even concluded that a winning strategy is to short the stocks he mentions to take advantage of all the chimps who buy the crap he advertises.

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Old 11-21-2008, 08:31 PM   #14
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You're kidding right?

If you're not I'd really, really, really, ask to see the brokerage statements proving that he's made all kinds of money following Cramer's advice. I'd be willing to bet a large chuck of change your acquaintance is just blowing smoke. The next time he mouths off you might ask him how he missed buying Bear Stearns like Cramer recommended.

I've literally seen back to back shows where Cramer has changed buys to sells on the same company. It couldn't be more random if monkeys were throwing darts. It's bad enough that Barron's did a whole article about how his picks blow. They even concluded that a winning strategy is to short the stocks he mentions to take advantage of all the chimps who buy the crap he advertises.

Shorting Cramer - Barrons.com
I kid you not about what I've been told. Whether it's true--who knows. What is true os that I've lost a lot of money.

I don't disagree with what you're saying about Cramer. I have been getting the street emails every day (I signed up to get access to an article once) and the guy goes from bull to bear like a manic depressive.
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Old 11-21-2008, 08:52 PM   #15
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A few posters on this blog have been explaining what was to be economically and were derided as "tin foil hats" for their troubles. I have yet to have any of the PollyAnnas, who were cheerleaders for the new golden age of prosperity that DIDN'T happen, come out and explain why they thought things weren't going to be as bad as they are.

I'd still like to hear from you optimists. Why in the world did you think the economy was going to continue on up into a bold new world?
How, given the rampant corruption and completely ridiculous economic situation of the last five years, could anyone see a continuance of business as usual? It's odd that the decline took as long as it did to begin.
What am I missing folks?

By the way, few of us take any comfort in being correct about the economic decline. There is no joy in being able to say, "I told you so". It is going to be rotten for all of us, but what would be better? Put on a happy face, hide one's head in the sand and make the situation even worse?

Many people want to now kill the messenger.
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Old 11-21-2008, 09:09 PM   #16
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I have yet to have any of the PollyAnnas, who were cheerleaders for the new golden age of prosperity that DIDN'T happen, come out and explain why they thought things weren't going to be as bad as they are.
We're heading in to a recession, and a bad one at that. But I'll reserve judgment on the "prosperity that DIDN'T happen" for a couple of years, if you don't mind. Meanwhile I'll look around at all of the advances within my grasp, from the high speed internet access I'm using now; to the DVR that frees me from the chains of network programming tyranny; to the index funds that allow me to diversify my investment risks and lower my costs in ways that previous generations never could; to the MRI that judged me free of cancer; to the bounty of foreign cuisines that liven my dinner table; etc, etc,


As much as the markets suck right now, somehow I'm not getting the argument that this isn't the absolute best time in all of history to be alive.
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Old 11-21-2008, 09:20 PM   #17
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Keep in mind that a few weeks back, Cramer was calling for Dow 4600 "by Tuesday." At the time, we were in the low- to mid-8k range. Obviously, that never happened. So... How right was he?
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Old 11-21-2008, 10:21 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by barbarus View Post
A few posters on this blog have been explaining what was to be economically and were derided as "tin foil hats" for their troubles. I have yet to have any of the PollyAnnas, who were cheerleaders for the new golden age of prosperity that DIDN'T happen, come out and explain why they thought things weren't going to be as bad as they are.

I'd still like to hear from you optimists. Why in the world did you think the economy was going to continue on up into a bold new world?
How, given the rampant corruption and completely ridiculous economic situation of the last five years, could anyone see a continuance of business as usual? It's odd that the decline took as long as it did to begin.
What am I missing folks?

By the way, few of us take any comfort in being correct about the economic decline. There is no joy in being able to say, "I told you so". It is going to be rotten for all of us, but what would be better? Put on a happy face, hide one's head in the sand and make the situation even worse?

Many people want to now kill the messenger.
Pollyanna here. I say again, things aren't so bad. Yes, the market is down, and may be for a while. I personally never said things wouldn't get bad. As a matter of fact, I've been calling for Dow 8000 for years. But I thought it would probably be more of Dow 12000 going up a percent or two per year for a long time coming. For those (not me) who are still accumulating, this is probably a boon in the long run.

Things will get better, eventually. This will be one of those little chunks on the chart. Hopefully people will be learning to LBTM, save, stay out of debt, etc. All those things people have learned from the various other unhappy periods they've gone through.

Anyway, as I said, things aren't so bad. Most people have food, shelter, jobs, friends and family, cable TV, cell phones, Nintendos, Christmas trees, etc. For the greatest disaster since the Genesis flood, people just don't seem that bad off. Panicked, yes, unhappy, yes. But not that bad off.

Iím as happy as a little clam
I am, I am, I am in love
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Old 11-22-2008, 10:22 AM   #19
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Listening only to the your "pundits of choice", whether financial or political, seems to me to be much like looking at yourself in the mirror and saying "yeah, you right!"...

None of these guys/gals are God, and most are in the business of attracting eyeballs for their advertisers... Best to take it all with a grain of salt (and maybe some tequila and a squeeze of lime).
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Old 11-22-2008, 10:34 AM   #20
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I blame the news media as much as anyone for scaring the hell out of everybody and putting fear in the marketplace.Let's face it bad new sells.The longer they cry "Great Depression 2",the more likely it's going to happen.They have all but destroyed consumer and investor confidence.Until that is restored,we will continue on this downward spiral.
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