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It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 03:44 PM   #1
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It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

Looks like we're going to break the high in 2000 today. And that just nominal value. At 3% inflation, it may be another year or two before breaking even. What a ride!
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 04:06 PM   #2
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

Don't forget those reinvested dividends for the last 7 years!
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 04:32 PM   #3
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam
Looks like we're going to break the high in 2000 today.
I'll be a lot more interested in what happens tomorrow.

Every single asset in our ER portfolio was green today. Every single freakin' one. On a Monday no less.

I can't remember the last time that happened... if ever.
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 04:38 PM   #4
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
I'll be a lot more interested in what happens tomorrow.

Every single asset in our ER portfolio was green today. Every single freakin' one. On a Monday no less.
They will all be green tomorrow. I guarantee it!
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 05:11 PM   #5
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

according to yahoo the high was around 1550

based on history i'd say give it another 10 years or so
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 05:16 PM   #6
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

Yeah, 1550 is closer to the number as I recall. No new Bull yet. Factor inflation for those years and it's even worse.
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 05:18 PM   #7
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
according to yahoo the high was around 1550
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bikerdude
Yeah, 1550 is closer to the number as I recall. No new Bull yet. Factor inflation for those years and it's even worse.
Yep, my bad. I was off by 100!
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 05:24 PM   #8
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

The S&P500 peaked at 1,527.46 on March 24, 2000. So todays close of 1468.47 is about 60 points shy of the peak or just under 4 percent of the March 24, 2000 peak.

Now you know
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 05:26 PM   #9
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

Luckily, my portfolio balance has done better...
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 05:32 PM   #10
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
Don't forget those reinvested dividends for the last 7 years!
Justin is correct. If you had reinvested dividends, you would be well ahead of the March 2000 high now. The SP500 index does not account for reinvested dividends.
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 05:56 PM   #11
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

about time!
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 06:27 PM   #12
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

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Originally Posted by JustCurious
Justin is correct. If you had reinvested dividends, you would be well ahead of the March 2000 high now. The SP500 index does not account for reinvested dividends.
Perhaps you should also adjust for inflation, and reinvest the dividends. When you do that we still have 10-15% to go.
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 07:15 PM   #13
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

more importantly who thinks it's going higher? i think the top will be 5% or 10% over 1527 and then another correction/bear market depending on your theory of housing
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 07:26 PM   #14
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
more importantly who thinks it's going higher?
I think it is going higher.
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 08:37 PM   #15
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

Quote:
Originally Posted by Masterblaster
Perhaps you should also adjust for inflation, and reinvest the dividends. When you do that we still have 10-15% to go.
Why don't we also work in the yen-euro against the dollar. That'll add a few more years....
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 08:41 PM   #16
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

Just for fun, the green line is where Hussman thinks the S&P 500 should be:



link
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 08:45 PM   #17
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

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Originally Posted by wab
Just for fun, the green line is where Hussman thinks the S&P 500 should be:
You mean "Great Grizzly" Hussman? If he really wanted to keep his clients awake at night he shouldn't have used that logarithmic scale.

I'm waiting for Bill Gross' next stock market forecast, but he's probably too busy trying to figure out what he's going to do with his extensive ISM/OSM holdings...
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 08:51 PM   #18
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

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Originally Posted by Nords
You mean "Great Grizzly" Hussman? If he really wanted to keep his clients awake at night he shouldn't have used that logarithmic scale.
He doesn't want to keep his clients up at night, he wants to scare you into becoming his client so you'll sleep better at night with his hedging strategy. I believe he pockets the full 1% ER on his funds, too. Nice work if you can get it. Of course, he could be right in spite of his conflict of interest.
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 09:01 PM   #19
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

i checked and the highest intraday was 1553 and change back in march 2000. 1527 was the highest close

there is a story that the FDIC, Federal Reserve and someone else had a big meeting of bankers and other execs involved in housing trying to formulate a plan to keep foreclosures to a minimum.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070416/risky...ages.html?.v=1

proposals include extending teaser rates to longer terms. interesting to see what will happen come 4Q.
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500
Old 04-16-2007, 09:35 PM   #20
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Re: It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
He doesn't want to keep his clients up at night, he wants to scare you into becoming his client so you'll sleep better at night with his hedging strategy. I believe he pockets the full 1% ER on his funds, too. Nice work if you can get it. Of course, he could be right in spite of his conflict of interest.
Or wrong - either way he will collect the fee.
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