It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500

[Sam]

Looks like we're going to break the high in 2000 today. And that just nominal value. At 3% inflation, it may be another year or two before breaking even. What a ride!

 

[justin]

Don't forget those reinvested dividends for the last 7 years!

 

[Nords]

Looks like we're going to break the high in 2000 today.

I'll be a lot more interested in what happens tomorrow.

Every single asset in our ER portfolio was green today. Every single freakin' one. On a Monday no less.

I can't remember the last time that happened... if ever.

 

[Sam]

I'll be a lot more interested in what happens tomorrow.

Every single asset in our ER portfolio was green today. Every single freakin' one. On a Monday no less.

They will all be green tomorrow. I guarantee it!

 

[al_bundy]

according to yahoo the high was around 1550

based on history i'd say give it another 10 years or so

 

[Bikerdude]

Yeah, 1550 is closer to the number as I recall. No new Bull yet. Factor inflation for those years and it's even worse.

 

[Sam]

according to yahoo the high was around 1550

Yeah, 1550 is closer to the number as I recall. No new Bull yet. Factor inflation for those years and it's even worse.

Yep, my bad. I was off by 100!

 

[MasterBlaster]

The S&P500 peaked at 1,527.46 on March 24, 2000. So todays close of 1468.47 is about 60 points shy of the peak or just under 4 percent of the March 24, 2000 peak.

Now you know

 

[HFWR]

Luckily, my portfolio balance has done better...

 

[JustCurious]

Don't forget those reinvested dividends for the last 7 years!

Justin is correct. If you had reinvested dividends, you would be well ahead of the March 2000 high now. The SP500 index does not account for reinvested dividends.

 

[chinaco]

about time!

 

[MasterBlaster]

Justin is correct. If you had reinvested dividends, you would be well ahead of the March 2000 high now. The SP500 index does not account for reinvested dividends.

Perhaps you should also adjust for inflation, and reinvest the dividends. When you do that we still have 10-15% to go.

 

[al_bundy]

more importantly who thinks it's going higher? i think the top will be 5% or 10% over 1527 and then another correction/bear market depending on your theory of housing

 

[justin]

more importantly who thinks it's going higher?

I think it is going higher.

 

[dmpi]

Perhaps you should also adjust for inflation, and reinvest the dividends. When you do that we still have 10-15% to go.

Why don't we also work in the yen-euro against the dollar. That'll add a few more years....

 

[wabmester]

Just for fun, the green line is where Hussman thinks the S&P 500 should be:

link

 

[Nords]

Just for fun, the green line is where Hussman thinks the S&P 500 should be:

You mean "Great Grizzly" Hussman? If he really wanted to keep his clients awake at night he shouldn't have used that logarithmic scale.

I'm waiting for Bill Gross' next stock market forecast, but he's probably too busy trying to figure out what he's going to do with his extensive ISM/OSM holdings...

 

[wabmester]

You mean "Great Grizzly" Hussman? If he really wanted to keep his clients awake at night he shouldn't have used that logarithmic scale.

He doesn't want to keep his clients up at night, he wants to scare you into becoming his client so you'll sleep better at night with his hedging strategy. I believe he pockets the full 1% ER on his funds, too. Nice work if you can get it. Of course, he could be right in spite of his conflict of interest.

 

[al_bundy]

i checked and the highest intraday was 1553 and change back in march 2000. 1527 was the highest close

there is a story that the FDIC, Federal Reserve and someone else had a big meeting of bankers and other execs involved in housing trying to formulate a plan to keep foreclosures to a minimum.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070416/risky_mortgages.html?.v=1

proposals include extending teaser rates to longer terms. interesting to see what will happen come 4Q.

 

[Spanky]

He doesn't want to keep his clients up at night, he wants to scare you into becoming his client so you'll sleep better at night with his hedging strategy. I believe he pockets the full 1% ER on his funds, too. Nice work if you can get it. Of course, he could be right in spite of his conflict of interest.

Or wrong - either way he will collect the fee.

 

[donheff]

They will all be green tomorrow. I guarantee it!

Wait for the CPI numbers and then make your call.

 

[al_bundy]

i think we'll see a drop today no matter what the CPI is. most likely buy on the rumor sell on the news. market went up to far and the SP500 along with the nasdaq are too far above their 50 day average lines.

 

[LeatherneckPA]

OK, DNG question here. (DNG = Dumb New Guy)

I don't understand how you can say it took seven years to recover? I had a little over $100K in my TSP before everything went south. I lost about $22K total. By the end of 2004 I was back up to $104K. Two years later, at the end of 2006, I was sitting at $150K. so my naive and simplistic look at the numbers tells me that I recovered everything I lost PLUS $50K in less than three years.

OK, putting my dunce cap on and getting up on my stool now. Tell me what I'm missing.

 

[justin]

OK, putting my dunce cap on and getting up on my stool now. Tell me what I'm missing.

You were contributing to your TSP the whole time, right? That's why your portfolio is growing.

 

[MasterBlaster]

Why don't we also work in the yen-euro against the dollar. That'll add a few more years....

The issue at hand is... If I was invested in the S&P index (or equivalent) am I as well off as in March of 2000. The answer aparently is no.

But you have a point, the dollar has dropped against most currencies and thus buys less today than it did in the day.So if you are comparing a basket of goods bought in March of 2000 against today you would take a big hit due to currency issues with any imports in your basket of goods.

So in real terms the purchasing power represented by the S&P500 is well off it's peak.