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Its all about testosterone...
Old 09-19-2008, 09:25 AM   #1
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Its all about testosterone...

Unclemick is right...

Science unveils hidden drivers of stock bubbles and crashes - Yahoo! News

The symptoms seem strangely familiar...like gambling...
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Old 09-19-2008, 12:15 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny View Post
Unclemick is right...

Science unveils hidden drivers of stock bubbles and crashes - Yahoo! News

The symptoms seem strangely familiar...like gambling...
No way Josť. Now if you'll just bear with me while I get my Derringer out of my boot...

Ha
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Old 09-19-2008, 12:30 PM   #3
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During the dot-com boom, he says, he was stunned to see male traders "displaying classic symptoms of mania," with symptoms of omnipotence, raging thoughts and diminished need for sleep.

Quitting finance and heading for Cambridge, Coates explored a hunch with Joe Herbert, a professor at the Cambridge Centre for Brain Repair.

They took saliva swabs from 17 male traders at a London stock-dealing firm twice a day and measured the samples for two hormones.

These were testosterone, which is associated with male aggressiveness and sexual behaviour, and cortisol, which is summoned by the body to deal with "fight or flight" emergencies.

When the traders were in profit, their testosterone levels surged. But when they were in loss, or in fluctuation, it was their cortisol that rose sharply.

Testosterone encourages confidence and risk-taking, and has an accumulative effect, which could explain winning streaks in sports teams, for instance.

But research in animals suggests that, over the long term, high doses of the hormone impair judgement and encourage excessive risks.
Maybe my wife should take care of our investments...
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Old 09-19-2008, 12:31 PM   #4
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I was impressed that theres a Cambridge Centre for Brain Repair.

I'm going to their web site and see if I can get them to sign up for an account here. I think they've got some prospective customers kicking around...
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Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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Old 09-19-2008, 12:54 PM   #5
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Maybe my wife should take care of our investments...
A couple of books that I have read (can't remember which) said that women were better investors than men. I don't know if they are trying to encourage women to become more financially literate, or if there is some sound quantitative basis for that idea. I suspect not.

All I can say is that I am a woman and a mother, 100% female, and yet I find it helpful to allow myself to invest one percent of my portfolio on a whim, outside of my plan... just like UncleMick and the guys.
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Old 09-19-2008, 12:56 PM   #6
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Traumatised by their loss, investors vow never to invest in stocks again -- a sentiment that can be durably enforced if many others have also been burned.
Sounds like me as a young man the morning after losing the contents of my stomach following a heavy drinking session ... but did I ever learn my lesson.....
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Old 09-19-2008, 01:06 PM   #7
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All I can say is that I am a woman and a mother, 100% female, and yet I find it helpful to allow myself to invest one percent of my portfolio on a whim, outside of my plan... just like UncleMick and the guys.
My Dear, an amount of testosterone that would be too small to measure should get you at least to 10%. Your body must dismantle that glorious molecule.

Ha
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Old 09-19-2008, 01:23 PM   #8
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My Dear, an amount of testosterone that would be too small to measure should get you at least to 10%. Your body must dismantle that glorious molecule.

Ha
Oh my - - well, I think that 1% is enough for me. My "play account" is doing dreadfully in comparison with my planned investments (that follow my boring old financial plan with all its index funds and such). I have lost over 30% in my "play account" during the declines of the past couple of years or so.
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Old 09-19-2008, 06:56 PM   #9
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Oh my - - well, I think that 1% is enough for me. My "play account" is doing dreadfully in comparison with my planned investments (that follow my boring old financial plan with all its index funds and such). I have lost over 30% in my "play account" during the declines of the past couple of years or so.
I wonder what would happen if you were up +30%. Perhaps your testosterone levels would be increasing (do women have any?) big time and you'd be growing ... well let's skip that one .
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Old 09-19-2008, 07:00 PM   #10
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Kudos to CFB for posting this one. An excerpt from the link:
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Tulip bulbs, then a rarity in Europe, scaled extraordinary heights in the course of a mad year, only to fall just as abruptly.
Psst ... I just bought some bearded irises at a sale today. Will plant in ground tomorrow.
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Old 09-19-2008, 07:01 PM   #11
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I wonder what would happen if you were up +30%. Perhaps your testosterone levels would be increasing (do women have any?) big time and you'd be growing ... well let's skip that one .
Well see, this is one of several reasons why it's good that I'm losing. Also since I am doing so poorly with my 1% "play account", I am not tempted to deviate from my plan which governs the other 99%.
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Old 09-19-2008, 07:29 PM   #12
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Want to know about testosterone?

Fire up your spreadsheet and plot these values for the Dow:

12-Sep-08: 11,421.99
15-Sep-08: 10,917.51
16-Sep-08: 11,059.02
17-Sep-08: 10,609.66
18-Sep-08: 11,019.69
19-Sep-08: 11,388.44

Look at the graph, then contemplate your reactions. Then take your blood pressure. That should tell you all you need to know!
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Old 09-19-2008, 07:35 PM   #13
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testosterone levels would be increasing (do women have any?)
um, yup we do. see Testosterone

great article, CFB. anyone who has ever seen a video clip of the trading floor on wall st would not doubt that article's conclusions.
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Old 09-19-2008, 07:56 PM   #14
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Anytime anyone thinks they can chart or graph the short to intermediate movements of the market...read that article and then give it another think.
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Old 09-19-2008, 08:04 PM   #15
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Want to know about testosterone?

Fire up your spreadsheet and plot these values for the Dow:

12-Sep-08: 11,421.99
15-Sep-08: 10,917.51
16-Sep-08: 11,059.02
17-Sep-08: 10,609.66
18-Sep-08: 11,019.69
19-Sep-08: 11,388.44

Look at the graph, then contemplate your reactions. Then take your blood pressure. That should tell you all you need to know!
The Dow was up 38 for the week yawn. I hate sideways markets they are so boring and hard to make money in.
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Old 09-19-2008, 08:08 PM   #16
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The Dow was up 38 for the week yawn. I hate sideways markets they are so boring and hard to make money in.
Good response!! Now, if your blood pressure is normal too, then we'll know you got through the week unscathed.

Ready for another boring, sideways market next week, everyone?

(Oh well - - at least a rollercoaster market is interesting, and as long as it goes up as much as it goes down, we're fine).
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Old 09-19-2008, 09:06 PM   #17
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That was quite a fireworks display from Ben and Co. After the celebration simmers down, the question remains, "where do we go from here?" Are we on the cusp of another bull market? Is the bear still lurking in the shadows? Do we simply muddle along?

As for myself, I don't see what is going to drive the next bull. The average American consumer is still completely tapped out, PE ratios are still rich by historical standards, and the Fed has pretty much exhausted its ammunition. I suppose the Fed could offer up another rate cut, but with the rate currently at 2% I don't see how we are going to get a lot of mileage out of cutting it any any further. In addition, I can't see another asset class ready to displace housing as the next super bubble -- lifting us (at least temporarily) out of the doldrums. I suppose there is the possibility of a big tax cut, but I'd like to think that our leaders at least have enough sense at this juncture to refrain from that foolishness. A tax hike is more likely. The Government could massively increase spending to stimulate the economy, but even the biggest spendthrifts in Washington may have lost their appetite for additional spending after the latest binge. My best guess is that we're headed for a rather long stretch of going nowhere. The economy python just swallowed a monster pig . . . I suspect it's going to take a L-O-N-G time to digest it.
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Old 09-19-2008, 09:38 PM   #18
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As for myself, I don't see what is going to drive the next bull.
Thats what everyone was saying in 2002.
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Old 09-19-2008, 09:45 PM   #19
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I suppose there is the possibility of a big tax cut.
Yes, "Bushonmics" will probably call for a big tax cut to pay for the hundreds of billions of aid announced this week.
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Old 09-19-2008, 11:23 PM   #20
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As for myself, I don't see what is going to drive the next bull.
Development of new energy sources. That's my hope.

That said, I basically agree with you. I think we're in for a period of economic retrenchment after the excesses of the recent past fueled by debt.

We may even see a new bubble fueled by new energy technology (pardon the pun), but at least it will be based on something with some substance to it. And maybe I can jump out right at the top!
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