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Old 07-16-2008, 09:59 AM   #41
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You are being helped by the lower oil/gas prices too, so your leverage against us is very thinly-veiled.

By the way, forgot to add source: Crude falls over $6 as inventories show surprise increase - MarketWatch
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Old 07-16-2008, 10:01 AM   #42
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You are being helped by the lower oil/gas prices too, so your leverage against us is very thinly-veiled.
Shush! You're supposed to believe it's purely altruistic...
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US drives crude demand
Old 07-16-2008, 10:06 AM   #43
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US drives crude demand

If the US consumer is strapped for discretionary cash doesn't it stand to reason this would cause a slowdown in China, are we not their biggest market?

My thoughts are the US has shown decreased demand for oil due to rising prices. Rising prices and declining home values have taken away discretionary cash needed for consumption of foreign made goods. Foreign inventorys begin to build, their economys slow down and less demand for petroleum worldwide.

On another note last night while walking the sound of multiple chain saws filled the air. Homeowners who have cut or bought wood, bought a wood furnace, pellet stove or made arrangement to heat with other ways than oil are going to use that investment to heat with this coming winter no matter what. This shoud further reduce what would be normal demand.

Eventually the high price for oil is going to catch up and demand across the globe is going to decrease. How much and how low the price goes is anybodys guess. Unless of course oil goes up due to war, hurricanes etc.
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Old 07-16-2008, 10:10 AM   #44
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Interesting...

History and Analysis -Crude Oil Prices



Looks like the nasdaq chart up through 1999...
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Old 07-16-2008, 10:34 AM   #45
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shotgunner, that is true, but with the price controls set on the gasoline in many countries (Venezuela, China) the true effect of the high price of oil is not felt by them. The Chinese economy will be stifled if we go into a recession, and that would cause a very slight reduction in oil use, which, if they got rid of the subsidies, would be dwarfed by THAT reduction in oil prices.
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Old 07-16-2008, 10:35 AM   #46
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It's down another five bucks today. Ziggy for president!

Oil prices tumble again on US surprise supply jump - Yahoo! News
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Old 07-16-2008, 02:46 PM   #47
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The USO sold off right in line with the inventory news - with pretty good volume and in a short time period - just like yesterday. It's held steady the rest of the day on light volume. So, the panic hasn't set in and sellers aren't rushing for the doors. Depending on how it does tomorrow, I could be a buyer on the USO if it gets to about $105 or so.

With my luck calling oil though, it's liable to hold at $107-108 for a while and then go right back up again.
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Old 07-17-2008, 08:50 AM   #48
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The USO sold off right in line with the inventory news - with pretty good volume and in a short time period - just like yesterday. It's held steady the rest of the day on light volume. So, the panic hasn't set in and sellers aren't rushing for the doors. Depending on how it does tomorrow, I could be a buyer on the USO if it gets to about $105 or so.

With my luck calling oil though, it's liable to hold at $107-108 for a while and then go right back up again.
Hovering around $109.50 right now... if you are really trying to get into it on a downfall, getting in at $107-$108 may be your best opportunity.
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Old 07-17-2008, 09:32 AM   #49
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Hovering around $109.50 right now... if you are really trying to get into it on a downfall, getting in at $107-$108 may be your best opportunity.
I'm tempted but not buying yet. It's up so far this morning, but the volume is light. I'm not trying to time it to catch the bottom, I just don't want to get on the elevator before the cable snaps and it goes down to the ground.
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Old 07-17-2008, 10:32 AM   #50
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So, the panic hasn't set in and sellers aren't rushing for the doors.
Ziggy needs to buy more!
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Old 07-17-2008, 10:49 AM   #51
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Ziggy needs to buy more!
I'm willing to sacrifice ~3% of my portfolio for the greater good. This much and no more.
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Old 07-17-2008, 10:54 AM   #52
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how selfish of you.
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Old 07-17-2008, 01:31 PM   #53
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I am seriously considering joining ziggy's noble quest for lower commodity prices, might buy something like 25 shares of USO, the $105 price is very attractive.
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Old 07-17-2008, 01:33 PM   #54
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I feel confident Iran will do some chest thumping and shoot a missile to get oil back up..
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Old 07-17-2008, 01:39 PM   #55
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I think its going to go a good bit lower and then stay there for a while...
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Old 07-17-2008, 01:41 PM   #56
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Very interesting article on Mexico hedging its bets on the price of oil. They're essentially looking to sign contracts that would guarantee oil to their customers for several years at today's prices. There's only one reason they'd want to do that: they feel oil has peaked. Whether they are right nor not, we'll see.

Some oil producers see now as time to sell - Jul. 17, 2008



And NotMuchLonger, I agree. That is quite a racket Iran has going. Prices dip a little, just shoot off a rocket to create tension to increase the price of oil.
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Old 07-17-2008, 01:45 PM   #57
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When I saw car companies offering the 3 year $2.99 gas cards bundled with their cars I figured a whole lot of actuaries spent a whole lot of time determining that 2.99 would be the average or higher than the average price of a gallon of gas for the next 3 years.
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Old 07-17-2008, 01:48 PM   #58
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When I saw car companies offering the 3 year $2.99 gas cards bundled with their cars I figured a whole lot of actuaries spent a whole lot of time determining that 2.99 would be the average or higher than the average price of a gallon of gas for the next 3 years.
The bottom line is that "selling security" to people is subject to the same laws of supply and demand as any other product or service.

When people are freaked out about their future, that's when they are likely to put a huge demand on products selling certainty and security for the future. And that's when the most money is made for people willing to assume the risk because they can charge a higher risk premium than usual.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

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Old 07-17-2008, 01:56 PM   #59
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The bottom line is that "selling security" to people is subject to the same laws of supply and demand as any other product or service.

When people are freaked out about their future, that's when they are likely to put a huge demand on products selling certainty and security for the future. And that's when the most money is made for people willing to assume the risk because they can charge a higher risk premium than usual.
Insurance salesman?
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Old 07-17-2008, 01:56 PM   #60
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When I saw car companies offering the 3 year $2.99 gas cards bundled with their cars I figured a whole lot of actuaries spent a whole lot of time determining that 2.99 would be the average or higher than the average price of a gallon of gas for the next 3 years.
or they just hedged by buying futures or sold the cars at a price that would cover the gas costs
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