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Old 08-08-2008, 02:08 PM   #141
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Ziggy maybe you could invest in euros next and help out the old greenback?
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Old 08-08-2008, 02:09 PM   #142
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Ziggy maybe you could invest in euros next and help out the old greenback?
The greenback hasn't needed any help since late June. About the time I bought USO was also when the dollar started to strengthen. In fact, I'm reminded of that whenever the U.S. market is up 3% but I'm only up 1% because oil, gold and foreign stocks are in the tank.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

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Old 08-08-2008, 02:15 PM   #143
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So basically we could say you are also indirectly responsible for the dollar getting stronger; your power never ends!
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Old 08-08-2008, 03:03 PM   #144
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Ziggy, you're doing a heckuva' job!
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Old 08-08-2008, 04:13 PM   #145
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Ziggy, you're doing a heckuva' job!
I'll say, I filled up my truck today and for the first time in weeks it was full before it reached the $75 cutoff. Put a smile on my face. But not as much as 18% up in DUG since I bought. Anybody else think oil is going to trip further? DUG
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Old 08-08-2008, 04:24 PM   #146
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leonidas: you ought to follow ziggy's lead and help the rest of us ... stop being so self-centered.
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Old 09-02-2008, 08:51 AM   #147
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
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Old 09-02-2008, 08:59 AM   #148
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I see you're fishing for a compliment...

OK, thanks for a job well done. Please sell now and save up so you can step in again when needed.
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Old 09-02-2008, 09:07 AM   #149
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Talking heads says $100 is near. How low will it go? BTW, markets doing well as a result.
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Old 09-02-2008, 09:08 AM   #150
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leonidas: you ought to follow ziggy's lead and help the rest of us ... stop being so self-centered.
I'm so ashamed . I tried, really, honestly...I even sold my DUG. But, then I got greedy again and bought twice as much in DTO. Up almost 12% now.
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Can I buy you a beer next time I'm in the Hill Country? You deserve something for your valiant and patriotic sacrifice.
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Old 09-02-2008, 10:18 AM   #151
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How low will it go?
About $80. Maybe $70.
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Old 09-02-2008, 10:38 AM   #152
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About $80. Maybe $70.
I was surprised how quickly the market is willing to go down on any news. It's like the opposite of what it has been for most of the last year when the price went up on any excuse.

But, I bet the O'PECCers fight price reduction tooth and nail. Didn't the Saudis promise us a nice increase in production over their quota just a couple of months ago? I don't know if that ever came about, and if it didn't, I bet we never hear about it again. If it did, I think that they would feel justified in halting the extra production and yanking some supply out of the picture.

I'm watching this again. I think it depends on how, and how quickly, we get to $100. If it keeps doing down at the present rate, and in spite of news that would normally mean a price increase, then I wouldn't be surprised to see $90 real quick. Getting below $90 may not come quickly.
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Old 09-02-2008, 10:59 AM   #153
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It went up that fast. It can go down that fast.

Look at a chart of oil prices adjusted to 2008 dollars. Oil has only been over $70 twice and only for very short time periods. Going with the long term trend it should be between $20 and $30. Given the more recent trend, it should be at around $70-75.

Didnt I say a couple of months ago that oil was coming down, gold was coming down, the dollar was going to go up, and PRPFX was going to suck as an investment?

Check, check, check...and....check!
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Old 09-02-2008, 11:11 AM   #154
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It went up that fast. It can go down that fast.

Look at a chart of oil prices adjusted to 2008 dollars. Oil has only been over $70 twice and only for very short time periods. Going with the long term trend it should be between $20 and $30. Given the more recent trend, it should be at around $70-75.

Didnt I say a couple of months ago that oil was coming down, gold was coming down, the dollar was going to go up, and PRPFX was going to suck as an investment?

Check, check, check...and....check!
Is this Larry Kudlow? Only thing you haven't said is drill drill drill......
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Old 09-02-2008, 11:17 AM   #155
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You buy more oil today Ziggy?



drill drill drill!
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Old 09-02-2008, 11:31 AM   #156
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Didnt I say a couple of months ago that oil was coming down, gold was coming down, the dollar was going to go up, and PRPFX was going to suck as an investment?

Check, check, check...and....check!
We've always been on the same page on these, although we disagree slightly about the long term strength of the dollar vs the short term. Back on 8/11 I went long on the greenback, and shorted gold and went back in twice as large on an oil short as I had been before.

And oil has gone down just as fast as it went up, at least $40 worth of it. But while I'm not a technician, I do look at charts and I see a speed bump of support at around $85-92. I don't think that's tough resistance to further price drops, but the brakes could come on there. What I see as potentially very strong resistance is the producers like OPECC. They really like $100 a barrel oil and given the recent past, I think that they believe the world can live with oil at that price. It will be a tough sell politically, but I think they will try and take some supply out of the market to try and slow down the drop in prices.

It's not that I don't think we can't get down to $70, but once it gets to $100 I think we will hear brakes squealing and smell rubber burning as a lot of effort gets put in to try and stop the movement.

Oh, and drill, drill, drill!
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Old 09-02-2008, 11:39 AM   #157
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I havent looked that hard but those offers by the saudi's to increase production were really token ones. I'm not sure how much they're going to want to throttle back production either, unless the price really swoons. They kinda like the money and anything over $40 is pretty juicy compared to historic prices.

Plus it aint all OPEC and OPEC friendly countries producing these days...

Besides, @>$80 the car makers are still going to push engineering of smaller cars and more electric versions, alternative fuels, etc. The oil producers will want to push the price towards $100, but market alternatives (threats and real) will hold it down.
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Old 09-02-2008, 11:50 AM   #158
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Boone Pickens just said he thought the Saudi's will cut production to support oil prices. He doesn't think it will go lower than $100. But he's been wrong before.
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Old 09-02-2008, 11:56 AM   #159
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Hmmm, last time I checked he was pushing wind and solar projects. Oil under $100 would undermine those pretty quick. So I'm guessing his comments are highly self serving.

Isnt this about the same as when Warren tells us that despite last years record numbers, that he expects below average returns next year? And then follows that up by saying that he doesnt see any bargains, days before scarfing up several companies?
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Old 09-02-2008, 12:11 PM   #160
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Pickens hasn't been scared of making predictions before. He did make some pretty on-target calls for a while on the way up. But he did blow it in a big way back at the beginning of the year when he started shorting oil at $100. His hedge fund lost a big chunk of money on that one. A couple of months later he called for $125 a barrel and then $150.
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