Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 12-22-2014, 08:00 AM   #181
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
HFWR's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 12,964
ImageUploadedByEarly Retirement Forum1419256851.655627.jpg


Sent from my iCouch using Early Retirement Forum
__________________

__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 12-23-2014, 02:23 PM   #182
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,471
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Get ready to make the magic noise . But maybe wait until after Jan 2nd for those of us rebalancing on the first trading day of the year?

I thought today we might have a new closing all-time-high. Intraday high is 2079 something, closing high 2075.4 or thereabouts.
Please hold off any excited happy noises until after Jan 2nd.

Thank you!

The Start-of-Year Rebalancers

p.s. S&P500 trading above 2080. Update - new intra-day all time high, and new closing high of 2,082.21.
__________________

__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2014, 04:06 PM   #183
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 731
Just wish the Int'l markets would produce some good returns.


VWO has been a red drag for years in my portfolio.


I sometimes wonder what following the 'rule of thumb' of 10% in Int'l equities gets me - its enough of a drag to make me grind my teeth with their lack luster returns , and yet if they do 'well' not enough to make much of a difference.
__________________
BBQ-Nut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2014, 04:08 PM   #184
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,423
I wonder if a lot of excited happy noises will bring down the S&P and propel the international stocks up. It's worth a shot, don't you think?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2014, 04:18 PM   #185
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
38Chevy454's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Cincinnati, OH
Posts: 1,584
Quote:
Originally Posted by BBQ-Nut View Post
Just wish the Int'l markets would produce some good returns.


VWO has been a red drag for years in my portfolio.


I sometimes wonder what following the 'rule of thumb' of 10% in Int'l equities gets me - its enough of a drag to make me grind my teeth with their lack luster returns , and yet if they do 'well' not enough to make much of a difference.
I agree with you, I have the same opinion, it creates drag without much upside potential.
__________________
After Monday & Tuesday even the calendar says, W-T-F...

Semi-Retired 7/1/16: working part-time (60%) for now [4/24/16 changed to 80%]
Retired Aug 2, 2017; age 53
38Chevy454 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2014, 04:25 PM   #186
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,423
VWO? Sell, sell, sell...

When more people throw in the towel, that's when things start to turn around...

Sell, sell, sell...
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2014, 05:07 PM   #187
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,890
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Please hold off any excited happy noises until after Jan 2nd.

Thank you!

The Start-of-Year Rebalancers

p.s. S&P500 trading above 2080. Update - new intra-day all time high, and new closing high of 2,082.21.
Bah, humbug. Not even another all time high portfolio balance for me today. Nothing here to be excited about, folks, just move right along...

Signed,

Another Start-of-Year Rebalancer
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2014, 05:29 PM   #188
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,471
Quote:
Originally Posted by BBQ-Nut View Post
Just wish the Int'l markets would produce some good returns.


VWO has been a red drag for years in my portfolio.


I sometimes wonder what following the 'rule of thumb' of 10% in Int'l equities gets me - its enough of a drag to make me grind my teeth with their lack luster returns , and yet if they do 'well' not enough to make much of a difference.
Maybe next year.

Actually - that seems likely. Just when people dump a category is when it finally outperforms.

I've had years where international blew away other categories, so I stick with it.

BTW - emerging markets (VWO) is not the same as international. I don't hold emerging markets as an asset class. That 10% rule did not mean put it only in emerging markets.
__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2014, 05:31 PM   #189
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,471
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
I wonder if a lot of excited happy noises will bring down the S&P and propel the international stocks up. It's worth a shot, don't you think?
Sure, but let's save that for next year, so that we rebalancers can buy our international when it is still down.
__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2014, 05:34 PM   #190
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 1,035
35 int, 10 emerging. My biggest worry is they keep saying its going do well next year. Consensus is jinxing.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
dallas27 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2014, 05:35 PM   #191
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
robnplunder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Bay Area
Posts: 2,124
Added some more to international mutual fund ... couldn't wait until Jan 2.
__________________
Pura Vida
robnplunder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2014, 05:41 PM   #192
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,423
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Sure, but let's save that for next year, so that we rebalancers can buy our international when it is still down.
I already have enough international, and EM too. People can make happy noise anytime. Wouldn't bother me. Here...

W****
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2014, 06:03 PM   #193
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 1,472
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
Every so often, to tamper our enthusiasm about equities, we should look at a graph like the one below that I linked in from simplestockinvesting-dot-com. Except for during the secular bull market of 1983-2000, buy-and-holders do not do that well.

For the most recent period of 2000-2013, only people who bought the dips got ahead. These buyers are either younger accumulators with fresh cash, or retirees who rebalance or hold balanced funds that rebalance for them. Buy-and-holders got nowhere.

And look how much investors lost in the period of 1967-1985, even with dividends all reinvested and a WR of 0.

You may want to look at this graph again, as the Y coordinate is not linear, but appears to be logarithmic. There isn't anything about this that is flat, except the 2000-2010 decade, which contained 2002 (after 9/11) and the 2008 meltdown with stocks bottoming out in March of 2009. Investors "lost" between 1967 and 1985 because of runaway inflation. Despite that, a dollar invested in 1950 turned into $55 in 2010, after being adjusted for inflation. This appears to me to be an argument for a buy and hold strategy, rather than against it.
__________________
EastWest Gal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2014, 06:40 PM   #194
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 1,035
Quote:
Originally Posted by EastWest Gal View Post
You may want to look at this graph again, as the Y coordinate is not linear, but appears to be logarithmic. There isn't anything about this that is flat, except the 2000-2010 decade, which contained 2002 (after 9/11) and the 2008 meltdown with stocks bottoming out in March of 2009. Investors "lost" between 1967 and 1985 because of runaway inflation. Despite that, a dollar invested in 1950 turned into $55 in 2010, after being adjusted for inflation. This appears to me to be an argument for a buy and hold strategy, rather than against it.

+1 (inflation adjusted +1)


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
dallas27 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2014, 06:46 PM   #195
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,423
Quote:
Originally Posted by EastWest Gal View Post
You may want to look at this graph again, as the Y coordinate is not linear, but appears to be logarithmic. There isn't anything about this that is flat, except the 2000-2010 decade, which contained 2002 (after 9/11) and the 2008 meltdown with stocks bottoming out in March of 2009.
When I wrote "flat", I meant periods when the S&P had the same value at the start and end of the periods.

For all the roller-coaster gyrations, investors who stoically hung on by their teeth ended up with the same money after 15 years (no withdrawal!). It's not good. Again, accumulators who bought on dips loved it, but retirees who were withdrawing would not have their portfolio even "flat".


Quote:
Investors "lost" between 1967 and 1985 because of runaway inflation. Despite that, a dollar invested in 1950 turned into $55 in 2010, after being adjusted for inflation. This appears to me to be an argument for a buy and hold strategy, rather than against it.
Yes, it may be great for a retiree in 1950 to hold until 2010, a period of 60 years. And while he/she was not allowed to withdraw any.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2014, 06:54 PM   #196
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 731
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Sure, but let's save that for next year, so that we rebalancers can buy our international when it is still down.
I guess if you like red...it is a Xmas color...
__________________
BBQ-Nut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2014, 07:02 PM   #197
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,423
By the way, I should reiterate here that bonds did not do a whole lot better in the period of 1965-1982, being also "flat" in the sense that there was no real return after inflation. However, bonds had less roller-coaster gyrations.

Mathjack showed a plot for bonds earlier in this thread. And Lsbcal showed a table comparing bonds and stocks in another thread. And using the table, I computed that a 50/50 balanced portfolio (with annual rebalancing) did better by a hair. So, it would not matter what you do if there is high inflation. Might as well buy gold coins and line them up under the mattress.

See: Considering reducing equities?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2014, 04:07 AM   #198
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5,413
we all have expectations of a projected amount of growth . this year we broke new highs and we all are going to look at our balances on 12/31

i bet there is no one here that would ever think 15 years later in real return that balance would be no different.

well if you had sizeable portfolios 15 years ago that is just what happened. that balance you expected to grow just died on the vine .

new money did great but your balance up to that point sucked wind. don't forget each time we hit a new high personally that becomes our new high water mark going forward,


so while i am happy to be where we are the reality is we are not much different than where we started 15 years ago with that older balance in real return.

thanfully the real estate we held did just fabulous and our net worth tripled in 12 years, but if it was just our equity investments and bonds i would have been way behind goal.


even this year with 5 great years way above the norm most folks do not realize some where along the reversion to the mean has to happen and the growth will fall off to likely bring you back to the long term averages. i just hope we don't go below but the outlook does not look great.

high stock valuations and low interest rates can be a precurser for below average returns.

we have no historical data on that combo as it never happened before.

which brings me back to why i decided to use a rising glide path when i start retirement in 7 months.
__________________
mathjak107 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2014, 12:40 PM   #199
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,471
Just to remind folks who worry about asset classes underperforming, etc. Each year take a look at the Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns. It's a great example of how asset class returns vary each year, and that it does pay off to be patient. I think a lot of folks tend to drop an underperforming asset class, and then the next year it often recovers. In other words, timing asset classes is tricky, but if you hold on to them and add when they are down, you are eventually rewarded.

Emerging markets outperformed all other asset classes in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, and 2012.

They were the worst performing asset class in 2008, 2011, and 2013.

The PDF containing the attached table is available at https://www.callan.com/research/files/757.pdf
Attached Images
File Type: jpg Callan Table 2013.jpg (616.1 KB, 16 views)
__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2014, 01:07 PM   #200
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 10
Hello all! First post.

It's exciting (and disappointing) to hear others talking about what I've suspected for over a decade. Year after year I receive the annual reports of mutual funds in my IRAs touting how they out-performed the market, yet year after year it seems as though my balances stay about the same.

Admittedly, I've not kept a careful eye on any investments. Now, that is going to change. I'm going to 'take charge' and with your guidance and what I learn on this site, I hope to begin to build wealth with current balances.

Thanks to many who have posted here. I've been devouring this site for the last 48 hours and look forward to making some valuable contributions...even if it's just a laugh now and then.

Merry Christmas!
__________________

__________________
Indiana Randy is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
2014 Doritos Crash the Superbowl Contest nvestysly Other topics 2 01-09-2014 04:20 PM
I put it all in Disney in October 2012...and I got a lot of grief from memebers oldnews Stock Picking and Market Strategy 68 11-02-2013 04:03 PM
October 1987 Crash: What would you do? ZMAN FIRE and Money 47 10-19-2007 10:45 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:26 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.