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Old 12-13-2014, 09:57 AM   #21
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well, comparing to the high on 12/5, it is only down 3.7%.

I will panic when it is down 10%.
You must panic a lot. A 10% correction is normal 1 to 3 times per year.
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Old 12-13-2014, 01:44 PM   #22
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The October "media panic" got me. I sold some equities back in October. This time I will be in the "do nothing" camp.
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Old 12-13-2014, 02:53 PM   #23
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Oh no, cash out and hide all your cash under your mattress!


DH still retiring Feb. 3, 2015.
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Old 12-13-2014, 03:14 PM   #24
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Did something happen in October?
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Old 12-13-2014, 08:40 PM   #25
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Did something happen in October?
The 29th in 29. It was IN the papers!
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Old 12-13-2014, 09:25 PM   #26
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Did something happen in October?
It's OK if you missed it. There's a replay going on right now, and perhaps more exciting. Sit back and enjoy the show.
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Old 12-13-2014, 10:07 PM   #27
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Old 12-13-2014, 10:23 PM   #28
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Looks like I'm going to have to change my avatar....
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Old 12-14-2014, 03:45 AM   #29
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no one knows what these plunging oil prices mean anymore than when the news first hit back in 2008 about the potential defaults on some mortgages.

with energy companies issuing 30% of the debt in the high yield market, falling oil prices can trigger massive defaults setting the stage for 2008-2009 all over again.

much of our recovery was tied to the surge in our oil producing industry so this may not be a fire sale on energy stocks, this may be adjusting to the new norm and in reality they are no bargain.

if they fall badly they will take the rest of the market with them.

our problem is we get so used to things recovering that we lose sight of the fact that recovery to existing money can take 10-15 years and it is only new money that grows while the old money dies on the vine.

basically the last 15 years all the sp 500 saw is a real return of 1.30% a year as a return with dividends reinvested..


if you looked at your balance in 2000 in inflation adjusted dollars you hardly moved.


so i would be careful with any thinking that any drops will be a fire sale.

that may be true only if you have little money invested at this point and can just buy .

but adding a little bit of money to already sizeable portfolios can be like peeing in the ocean and the downturn hurts you more in lost time and lost return on the bigger pile of money you already have..
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Old 12-14-2014, 05:03 AM   #30
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Screw it, I'm going all in on Argentine pork belly futures and bitcoins.
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Old 12-14-2014, 06:23 AM   #31
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no one knows what these plunging oil prices mean anymore than when the news first hit back in 2008 about the potential defaults on some mortgages.
Absolutely true, but we do know a few things.

The lower gas prices will be a boon for consumers, farmers, businesses, some airlines, etc. It's only companies that have purchased oil/gas far in advance that it will not help, but even then it is an anticipated and budgeted for expense.

Some traders will lose big. Of course, some will gain big. Oil companies will do OK, but profits will suffer.

Companies have a lot more money than they had in 2008. Construction is booming. Governments can add gas taxes, even large ones, without fear of anyone rebelling.

So while this may be the beginning of a long correction, I feel the positives of the economy will greatly outweigh any negatives.

Now if crude added $40 per barrel, instead of dropped, it would be different.
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Old 12-14-2014, 07:28 AM   #32
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bond markets seem to be a lot better at calling things than stock markets are.

the inverse yield curve we had before the downturn proved right.

the sell off in the high yield markets seems to be forecasting something alot more severe potentially playing out than some reduced oil profits.

i hope it is wrong.
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Old 12-14-2014, 08:20 AM   #33
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A market correction!? Oh goodie. Perfect opportunity to TLH, offsetting this years capital gains, thusly locking in my ACA subsidy.
Whew! That was a close call
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Old 12-14-2014, 08:25 AM   #34
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i will gladely pay the taxes and give up any subsidy and let me keep those gains.

i dropped enough in 1 week to pay for health insurance for years.
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Old 12-14-2014, 08:41 AM   #35
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Did someone say buying opportunity?
not yet.
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Old 12-14-2014, 08:42 AM   #36
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i will gladely pay the taxes and give up any subsidy and let me keep those gains.

i dropped enough in 1 week to pay for health insurance for years.
I lost enough last week to buy a brand new, high end luxury car that I wouldn't dream of buying.
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Old 12-14-2014, 09:06 AM   #37
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I lost enough last week to buy a brand new, high end luxury car that I wouldn't dream of buying.
don't worry - it's only paper loss. may be you should consider buying one now.
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Old 12-14-2014, 10:43 AM   #38
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I lost enough last week to buy a brand new, high end luxury car that I wouldn't dream of buying.
as my assets grew it was no longer a case of the perecentage we fell , it became all about the dollars you fell back.
.

while a 5% drop sounds like a small amount today the represents 6 years of maxing out my 401k contributions.


that is why my retirement strategy is only to take on enough volatility to meet my income goals (about 35-40% equities).

while i was a super aggressive investor my whole life today it is the dollar amounts and not the percentages that are insane amounts that look like phone numbers..
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Old 12-14-2014, 11:35 AM   #39
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I lost enough last week to buy a brand new, high end luxury car that I wouldn't dream of buying.
Same here. But counting from personal top, it's $178K gone!

Well, it's still the money that the market god gave loaned. It still hurts though.
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Old 12-14-2014, 12:19 PM   #40
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I lost enough last week to buy a brand new, high end luxury car that I wouldn't dream of buying.
I bought one in early October.... But I did dream of buying it a few nights.
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