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NW-Bound · 12-17-2014, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ejman

Fortunately no, my house and septic system are on a small hill about 250 ft above the area where the water pump is located. The water table is about 70 ft lower than that.

Nice to be on a high point like that. My high-country home is on a hill, and only 120 ft higher than the highway 0.2 miles away. Yet, looking down on the surrounding homes and the road from my deck, I already feel like king of the hill (the main reason I bought the place

).

Anyway, back on market movements, today my stock portion is up 2.19%, but the MF portion is only 1.04%. I think some MFs distribute dividends and cap gains today so their price drop, but the reinvested shares have not been credited. The above is for comparison to the S&P's 2.04%, the Dow's 1.69%, and the NASDAQ's 2.12%.

Some of my energy shares jumped 6 to 8%, but they still have a long way to go to get back to where they were. Buy, sell, hold them? I think I am going to hold.

ejman · 12-17-2014, 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MRG

You have some really smart bunnies. Ours know nothing about septic systems.

Sorry too good to pass up.:confused:

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Yes, the bunnies read up on how to head for the boonies when the septic overflowed

mathjak107 · 12-18-2014, 02:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound

Everyday I compare my portfolio percentage change with the indices, meaning the Dow, S&P500, and the NASDAQ, to see how I fare. And I also look at percentage change for longer-term performance tracking.

I know not to look at the change in dollar terms, but man, when I was younger I would not think there would be a time when I would see a drop of $80K in a single day, or a gain of $50K (it always drops more and faster in a day than it does going up), and still acted cool.

Well, the market movement still hurts or makes me feel a bit happier, but I know that's the nature of the beast. And it's only money.

Being in the distribution and not the accumulation phase, I look at the dollar amount fluctuation in terms of how many months of living expenses that equates to. So, 2% today is roughly 6-7 months of expenses.

sooooooo true. i am retiring in july and every down blast i go well there goes a years worth of income.

more and more i am sliding over to the bernstein camp of leaning more to being more conservative than my old aggressive days.

the damage that can be done in even a 10% drop early on to a retirement in dollars can be quite high if you have a sizeable portfolio.

i am only 40% equities at this stage , and will use a rising glide path up to 50% and my days can see 25k swings . that is a freakin lot of money but just a small percentage.

2B · 12-18-2014, 04:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mathjak107

i am only 40% equities at this stage , and will use a rising glide path up to 50% and my days can see 25k swings . that is a freakin lot of money but just a small percentage.

The Vanguarg FP convinced me to go from 40% to 45%. He initially encouraged 50% until I showed him my "escrow account" to give me the same dollars that SS and medicare would contribute to my retirement income. It's an extra cash portion that will decline year by year until I reach 70. I don't know if I conviced him of the logic or he just realized I wasn't going to go all the way.

I am currently in my last "in-office" day before resigning/retiring on 5 Jan 2015.

I'll be on two weeks of vacation to practice up for retirement. I'll see how long of a transition will be appropriate in January.

Looking4Ward · 12-18-2014, 05:49 AM

Crash? Watch what happens today.

Siestatime · 12-18-2014, 06:12 AM

Momentous, 2B! I wish you all the best.

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audreyh1 · 12-18-2014, 07:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Looking4Ward

Crash? Watch what happens today.

What we have right now is known as a short squeeze.

By late Tuesday, so many shorts had piled on that when oil stopped going down, and stocks started to rise a little, they had to cover. That can drive a big "whoosh" to the upside.

NW-Bound · 12-18-2014, 08:18 AM

Yes, that's how my energy stocks jumped 6-8% yesterday. But even as these shorts cover today, they still make big money if they sold a month ago. Not so much the wannabes who joined them too late.

Market timing can be so lucrative, but I am not good at it hence only play with a bit of money for fun.

PS. By the way, one of my active MFs dropped -12% yesterday instead of going up 2% like everybody else. As I thought, it distributed cap gains yesterday, and it was a big distribution. This guy was trading much! Good thing I have it in an IRA, else there's tax to pay.

Looking4Ward · 12-18-2014, 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1

What we have right now is known as a short squeeze.

By late Tuesday, so many shorts had piled on that when oil stopped going down, and stocks started to rise a little, they had to cover. That can drive a big "whoosh" to the upside.

Exactly. I've come to consider these events as simply the way career investors/day traders make their money. It goes down so that it can go up.

Looking4Ward · 12-18-2014, 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound

Market timing can be so lucrative, but I am not good at it hence only play with a bit of money for fun.

I'm not very good at it either, I just prefer to think of it as common sense to buy more when something like energy or healthcare drop substantially because it's just a matter of time before they go back up. Over history my buy decisions have proven to be better then my sell decisions.

NW-Bound · 12-18-2014, 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Looking4Ward

Exactly. I've come to consider these events as simply the way career investors/day traders make their money. It goes down so that it can go up.

On an average day, only 1 or 2% of stock shares change hand. Yet, the price they trade at sets the valuation for the entire market. It's not any different than the settled price for one home in the neighborhood setting the comp for the entire block.

The active traders set the market price and drive it. I'd rather buy and hold, but I am constantly looking to see if I can piggy back on those swings to make a bit extra. Some call it rebalancing, but as I do it with smaller amounts, incrementally, and with an eye towards short-term potential profits, I call myself a market timer. There's no shame in it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Looking4Ward

I'm not very good at it either, I just prefer to think of it as common sense to buy more when something like energy or healthcare drop substantially because it's just a matter of time before they go back up. Over history my buy decisions have proven to be better then my sell decisions.

It is because over a long time, stocks tend to go up. Most of what you buy eventually makes you money. So, people in the accumulation phase can just buy, buy, buy every month with their savings and they most likely will be OK as it has been in the past. But for retirees with no more income, you've got to sell at some point to have free cash to buy during dips. This makes it more difficult. People who are still working may not appreciate this.

NW-Bound · 12-18-2014, 09:30 AM

And talk about selling, Gerald Loeb, a cofounder of the old E.F. Hutton firm, pointed the following out in his book. It is that once you buy a stock, you need to think about it constantly. Do you keep it or sell it? It's like growing a garden. You need to weed, then to harvest.

The above is hard to do with individual stocks, so most just buy an MF, ETF, or an index. There's nothing wrong with it, and a prudent thing to do too. But one still has to weigh stocks against bonds and other assets. So, a balanced fund where more work has been done for you is not a bad deal for people who do not want to see what goes into a sausage.

ripper1 · 12-18-2014, 09:44 AM

Here we go right back on up......WHEEEE.......Come on W2R........WHEEEE.

**Walt34** · 12-18-2014, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ripper1

Here we go right back on up......WHEEEE.......Come on W2R........WHEEEE.

OMG, now you've done it! We're doomed!

EastWest Gal · 12-18-2014, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound

On an average day, only 1 or 2% of stock shares change hand. Yet, the price they trade at sets the valuation for the entire market.

This is a really good point. So when your portfolio ends the day up or down $50K it really doesn't unless you sell the entire kitten kaboodle that day.

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