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It's time for ER - Please help
Old 03-19-2005, 07:40 AM   #1
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It's time for ER - Please help

First - would really like to mention how valuable this forum has been to us over the past months and we thank all of you for posting so much helpful info – a brief history and our apologies for such a lengthy post – both employed (he 56, she 55), within days merger will be finalized at husband’s company (employed 36 yrs). 35 years of marriage consisted of working, raising children, working, raising grandchild for 8 yrs, working, helping our parents, working…working….and working. We are both ready for ER. Nervous and stressed? Heck yeah! Financial history – 2 homes, one in IL (small equity loan of $75k) and lake home in WI (no mortgage) purchased two years ago with dreams of future retirement and lots of fishing in mind. Never thought we would ER until he reached 59-60 so we're a few years short of our master plan. Thinking of combining our 401k, his pension (lump sum) and sale of home in IL having $850,000 working for us (not including WI home at $250k) Outside of the small equity loan, no outstanding debts as WI home, cars and boat are paid for. Not sure (yet) if company will offer a severance package.

Any advice on what to do with the $850k would be so very appreciated. (we really absorb all of the sound advice from you guys on this forum and feel like such amateurs but ready to learn) We are definitely leaning towards ER. Our thoughts are to rollover the two 401’s and pension and some of the cash from the sale of the IL home (home sale approx. $350k)and setting up some money into an emergency fund for any unknown future expenses. This is where our minds have stopped functioning….to avoid any tax/penalities we should rollover into an IRA into where? How much available cash is needed for our future unknown expenses? (Our needs are simple – we just like to fish!) We are hoping to live off the SWR of 4% using 72t for five years until he reaches 62 and would start SS.

We’re pretty nervous but excited – it’s finally “our” turn and we want to be better prepared in making right decisions. Any advice regarding getting started, funds to invest in, medical insurance (we will have COBRA for 18 months) would certainly help us. From previous postings, our understanding is that financial planners/consultants may not be the way to go.

Thanks for any help.

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Re: It's time for ER - Please help
Old 03-19-2005, 01:01 PM   #2
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help

Welcome onboard JP. Always a lot of variables but the head lines would be: Total net worth 1.1M of which $250k in paid house.

$850k invested and you indicate a 4% w/r. Based same you will probably need to have some equity exposure. How much comes down to risk tolerance and I think the best thing to do right away is: NOTHING while you read a few books on investing and study various possibilities.

After that you can then make a plan according to your liking. A all-in-one Vanguard retirement fund might do the trick.

Congrats on reaching FIRE! Ben
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help
Old 03-19-2005, 01:50 PM   #3
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help

Thanks for responding back Ben - and the tip re total net worth 1.1M of which $250 in paid house. Says it all without all the ramblings on. See? It's a start and we learned something already. We plan to pick up Bernstein's 4 pillars -- and start reading it. Noticed that Vanguard is mentioned quite a bit in several postings - we'll study up on that.

Enjoy reading your posts - as well as the posts from intercst, th and Cut-throat, just to name a few - there really are quite a few others that we enjoy as well.

Take care, and thanks again -

JP
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help
Old 03-19-2005, 02:29 PM   #4
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help

Can you live on $32k/yr? The paid for lake house helps quite a bit.

As Ben said, read, read, read. Ralph Warner's "Get a Life: You Don't Need a Million..." is also a good choice.

You can start an Emigrant Direct or ING Direct bank account for decent interest while you make a plan. I too would suggest Vanguard. I also like to suggest Scottrade since Vanguard funds are a no-fee choice there.

COBRA is expensive. Get the company to foot 6-12 months of insurance as part of the severance.
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help
Old 03-19-2005, 03:47 PM   #5
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help

I have no advice, just an observation.

I've been posting here quite a while. A lot of it was
non-serious and some was just "killin' time".
That said, I know of no one here who just up and quit
(which is what I did) with no structured plan
whatsoever. I also know of no one who quit with such
a puny net worth. Yet, here I am, not having drawn
a paycheck since June, 1998 and apparently with no
need to work again! Guess the point is that I have lost
count of the times when someone posted "We have
a million, 2 million, 3 million, 4 million , etc. When/how
can we retire?" I've got to say it. I'm a smart guy, but
I'm not that smart. If I can do it, many others (not all)
can do it too. Why is this stuff so obvious to me?
Egomania? Experence? Elevated optimism?
I should write a book.
Alas, I am too lazy.

JG
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help
Old 03-19-2005, 05:26 PM   #6
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help

Hi Eridamus and JGalt - thanks for replying - Eridamus $32k a year seems a bit tight - is it doable? Don't really know yet but we're gonna give it our all to try and have it work out for us. We definitely will add Warner's Get a Life - - as suggested. Feel like Vanguard might be the place for us to start - thanks much for your suggestions - it really is nice to know there are people out there that want to help others. Believe me, we are appreciative.

JGalt - enjoy reading your posts too! Our hat is off to you for going into ER since 1998. And if you write a book - we'll read it. One thing noticed, however, is that you mentioned in one of your previous posts that your wife is employed and you have medical ins. through her - that would seem to help quite a bit - her salary would help supplement on your return and not paying high medical ins costs- which is good. Problem is that we've both worked a good share of our married life and would both like to ER together as we've done just about everything together during our time. Just seems right. These responses have given us a bit more confidence in what we are about to do -

Thank you!
JP
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help
Old 03-19-2005, 05:57 PM   #7
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help

Quote:
Any advice on what to do with the $850k would be so very appreciated. (we really absorb all of the sound advice from you guys on this forum and feel like such amateurs but ready to learn) We are definitely leaning towards ER. Our thoughts are to rollover the two 401’s and pension and some of the cash from the sale of the IL home (home sale approx. $350k)and setting up some money into an emergency fund for any unknown future expenses. *This is where our minds have stopped functioning….to avoid any tax/penalities we should rollover into an IRA into where? *How much available cash is needed for our future unknown expenses? *(Our needs are simple – we just like to fish!) *We are hoping to live off the SWR of 4% using 72t for five years until he reaches 62 and would start SS. *

We’re pretty nervous but excited – it’s finally “our” turn and we want to be better prepared in making right decisions. *Any advice regarding getting started, funds to invest in, medical insurance (we will have COBRA for 18 months) would certainly help us. From previous postings, our understanding is that financial planners/consultants may not be the way to go.

Thanks for any help.


Hi jp,

I would think a little about how much income you want and how much capital gain. This is a key consideration.

Your investments can be structured to provide enough income to just spend that, but it will possibly be more costly after taxes and it will not allow your assets to grow very much. They may not keep up with inflation. The other side is to have a lot of capital gain - investments like small cap stocks - but not much income. So one typically wants some middle ground with this.

Investments such as commercial real estate (REITs) or Timber, can provide a 4-6% yield, and your capital can keep up with inflation. TIPS, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities can provide a 2% income pre-tax, but keep the capital up with inflation. They are also useful because you can use these to live off in years when the stock market falls. The 70s is a good example of this where stocks fell 41% in the US between 1973-4 and did not recover at the end of the 70s. Anyone owning real estate, oil & gas or gold probably did very very well, anyone owning just common stocks like the S&P 500, and living off theirassets, was broke by the end of the decade. If one has a reasonable balance of these assets and a reasonable yield, it reduces the volatility and the amount you have to sell off in bad years. Owning TIPs allows you to avoid selling stocks at all if you own enough of them.

Just as a simple example of how portfolios work, if one were to have 100% in the S&P 500 index, you would receive 1.8% cash dividend today (approx.). If you had a planned 4% withdrawal rate based on the value of your holdings when retiring, you would plan to sell 2.2% of capital each year. Now, if the S&P 500 fell by 50% - something that is close to what happened in the US market from 2001-3, Europe & the UK too - you would then have half what you started with. To withdraw the same cash to spend, you would be selling twice the number of shares to live. What was 2.2% of your capital when you started is now 4.4% of what is left because your capital has fallen 50%. If the market fell and then sat pat for the next decade, you would slowly eat thru your capital. Your withdrawals would increase with inflation all the while, so you would first sell 4.4%, then 4.6%, then 4.9% and so on. The amount you would be selling off would accelerate as your share ownership dwindled. This is how people go broke even when they started with more than enough to live off. This is what happens when you only own one asset class. So one aims for a blend of different assets that ebb and flow at different times, where the likelihood of everything being down for a decade is as close to zero as possible!

I would suggest taking a look at a post I just put up entitled " Conservative portfolios ". This is my own attempt to see how one could manage in good and bad environments.

It is also worth pointing out that the traditional 60% in US stocks and 40% in US Treasury Bonds is a broken system. Returns will not be high enough to live off in this setup. One can do much better with a broader mix of assets and much more diversification outside of the US in case the US doesn't perform for a decade and you don't have the luxury of waiting it out!

Petey


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Re: It's time for ER - Please help
Old 03-19-2005, 06:03 PM   #8
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help

Quote:
Hi Eridamus and JGalt - thanks for replying - Eridamus $32k a year seems a bit tight - is it doable? Don't really know yet but we're gonna give it our all to try and have it work out for us. *We definitely will add Warner's Get a Life - - as suggested. *Feel like Vanguard might be the place for us to start - thanks much for your suggestions - it really is nice to know there are people out there that want to help others. *Believe me, we are appreciative.

JGalt - enjoy reading your posts too! *Our hat is off to you for going into ER since 1998. *And if you write a book - we'll read it. *One thing noticed, however, is that you mentioned in one of your previous posts that your wife is employed and you have medical ins. through her - that would seem to help quite a bit - her salary would help supplement on your return and not paying high medical ins costs- which is good. *Problem is that we've both worked a good share of our married life and would both like to ER together as we've done just about everything together during our time. *Just seems right. * These responses have given us a bit more confidence in what we are about to do - *

Thank you!
JP

jp,

You want to know your budget before you retire. There will be some savings sans work clothes and some increased costs from additional travel, health care and so. The usual 70-80% of what you spent you can live off is a rough rule and very much depends on the individual or family involved. I would not trust it. You need to take the time to work it out to be sure. One cannot always go back to the same paid work if one miscalculates.

I would mirror the advice of others. Take it slowly. Read sensible books. I would suggest Gillette Edmunds How to Retire Early and Live Well which covers the basics of owning several different asset classes to protect yourself. Bernstein is a lot more advanced and a tough read for many. Larry Swedroe is also popular, but I personally found Gillette Edmunds to be excellent. He has actually lived off his money for two decades, saw the end of the 70s, the early 80s and so on, and so has to good real life experience to call upon!

Like the basic advice to never invest any money in any investment you do not completely understand (or you'll likely loose it), I would not proceed until both of you are well versed in the financial planning side of things.

Petey
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help
Old 03-19-2005, 09:18 PM   #9
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help

Petey - WOW extremely informative and helpful - gave us a lot to think about and we thank you for taking the time to jot all that down for us.....and like a sponge we are absorbing all that you wrote. Tomorrow we start our reading and researching - putting Bernstein aside for now as we don't need anything over our heads and will start with Gillette Edmunds and also Ralph Warner. ER looks attractive but as mentioned we really do want to make this work for us and we realize nothing comes easy -

Thanks again to you, Ben, JGalt and Eridanus for posting - was nervous at first to post a message but after seeing how helpful and respectful everyone was in their responses, we're so glad we did as any advice certainly helps and hopefully in the future we will also be in a position to help someone out.
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help
Old 03-20-2005, 02:47 AM   #10
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help

Quote:
Petey - WOW *extremely informative and helpful - gave us a lot to think about and we thank you for taking the time to jot all that down for us.....and like a sponge we are absorbing all that you wrote. *Tomorrow we start our reading and researching - putting Bernstein aside for now as we don't need anything over our heads and will start with Gillette Edmunds and also Ralph Warner. *ER looks attractive but as mentioned we really do want to make this work for us and we realize nothing comes easy -

Thanks again to you, Ben, JGalt and Eridanus for posting - was nervous at first to post a message but after seeing how helpful and respectful everyone was in their responses, we're so glad we did as any advice certainly helps and hopefully in the future we will also be in a position to help someone out.
Hi Jp,

Thank you for your kind comment.

I think we all try to be helpful on the boards but as people have different levels of knowledge it is difficult at times to know at what level to explain things. So pleased it worked out well.

Typically people will recommend Bernstein's Four Pillars as the first port of call but I think that is a mistake. It comes from people having already read quite a bit before, forgetting this and so recommending the more advanced text! When I read Bernstein and then read Gillette Edmunds I really wished I had done it the other way around. It would have been a lot easier to understand that way, which is why I recommended it to you.

It is worth noting that different books have different perspectives on things. No one author will be correct. Many love indexing, others not so much. Bernstein and Swedroe are both hardcore indexers. I have seen enough information to know that markets are not efficient and indexing everything as a strategy is shortsighted and will cost you extra returns in the long-run. So as you say, soaking it up as a sponge is a good idea and over time you will form your own conclusions as many have.

Gillette covers US stocks large and small, int'l stocks, emerging market stocks, oil & gas, gold, inflation-protected bonds (TIPS) and but particularly discusses how one can put together a portfolio one can live off, why this is so important and how to do it right. What things to consider when doing so. So he gives you a new way to think about things which you really need.

Finally, I should have also mentioned before that you might like to consider a book by David Swensen. He manages the Yale University Endowment Fund and explains how they use actively managed funds and non-traditional asset allocations to get higher returns. Much of what they do can be duplicated successfully and it again provides a fresh and new way to think about bond investments, actively managed value funds, etc. I would place this between Edmunds and Bernstein as it will build nicely on what Gillette Edmunds has to say. It is also not an academic book at all and is an easy & interesting read.

Yale also provide an overview of their investment approach in their annual endowment report. This too is a simple quick few pages to read (less than 10) and provides a good indication of the book's contents. They include different case studies each year. Their 2003 piece on real estate and timberland investments were particularly interesting:

http://www.yale.edu/investments/

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0684864436/

Petey
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help
Old 03-20-2005, 03:27 AM   #11
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help

Hello. I suggest you start your reading with
'Winnie the Pooh". In it you will learn how to value
honey, although I suppose the presense of Piglet
may get you thinking pork bellies

JG
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help
Old 03-20-2005, 08:53 AM   #12
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help

Thanks again Petey especially for breaking it down for us for easier understanding.

JP

And, Mr. Galt - kind of surprised - thought ***** was the one to beware of..........but we'll take your comments in stride.
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Hang on a sec.
Old 03-20-2005, 09:29 AM   #13
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Hang on a sec.

I'm no Galt shill, but he has a point. Although John delivered it with his usual tact, I appreciate his opinion on Petey & Bernstein.

Bernstein's "Four Pillars" is a huge distillation & simplification of his earlier "Intelligent Asset Allocator" book. It also puts the whole process in one package without requiring a forklift to carry the book around.

While Edmunds, Tyson, and others do a great job of simplifying the process even further, I think they leave out the details and don't summarize as well as Bernstein's tailored walk-you-through-it portfolio-building chapters. The point is not to avoid Bernstein's book-- the idea is to try it and then back off to something else if it's too much to start with.

Yes, indexing is less profitable than exploiting the cracks in the EMH. But even Buffett agrees that novice or indifferent investors should stick to index funds while choosing their life's priorities. While other books cover the basics, Bernstein's book is absolutely essential to thinking through your personal investing preferences and then executing them. You can use it or ignore it, but avoiding it altogether is a mistake.

So if you're more interested in Disney than in directing your own diversification, indexing is the way to go. And if you can't tolerate Four Pillars, then you should probably (*gulp*) seek Pooh professional help.
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help
Old 03-20-2005, 09:47 AM   #14
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help

One more comment: Use your library. Read the books your taxes bought and then buy the books you want to keep around.
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help
Old 03-20-2005, 04:29 PM   #15
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help

Shucks - we'll pretty much read the books that are being suggested - and one will lead into another. This is important to us. Just didn't know where to start - everyone has different techniques they have used to help them into ER - and that is where we want to be. We posted here seeking suggestions and not turning up our noses on any of the info that has been given. Ben mentioned Vanguard (which has been posted many times throughout the board) and we've spent some of today searching around the Vanguard website. Very helpful. Initially we were going to schedule a meeting with a FP until we came across this forum - now we're taking it one step at a time.

We'll look for some of the books at our local library one day after work - another great suggestion.

Thanks!

JP

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Re: It's time for ER - Please help
Old 03-20-2005, 04:55 PM   #16
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help

As the pigs said in 'Animal Farm'..................."Books good,
FP bad!" Something like that

JG
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help
Old 03-20-2005, 05:11 PM   #17
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help

Hi JG - as I said - so glad we put a hold on meeting with a FP - if we learned anything at all over these past few months - guess that is Numero Uno.

Weekend's over - you have a good week, we know you will and we're full of envy!!

.......heigh ho heigh ho.........it's off to work we go. (At least for awhile)

Thanks for checking in on us from time to time.

JP
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Re: Hang on a sec.
Old 03-20-2005, 09:04 PM   #18
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Re: Hang on a sec.

Quote:
I'm no Galt shill, but he has a point. *Although John delivered it with his usual tact, I appreciate his opinion on Petey & Bernstein.

Bernstein's "Four Pillars" is a huge distillation & simplification of his earlier "Intelligent Asset Allocator" book. *It also puts the whole process in one package without requiring a forklift to carry the book around.

While Edmunds, Tyson, and others do a great job of simplifying the process even further, I think they leave out the details and don't summarize as well as Bernstein's tailored walk-you-through-it portfolio-building chapters. *The point is not to avoid Bernstein's book-- the idea is to try it and then back off to something else if it's too much to start with.

Yes, indexing is less profitable than exploiting the cracks in the EMH. *But even Buffett agrees that novice or indifferent investors should stick to index funds while choosing their life's priorities. *While other books cover the basics, Bernstein's book is absolutely essential to thinking through your personal investing preferences and then executing them. *You can use it or ignore it, but avoiding it altogether is a mistake.

So if you're more interested in Disney than in directing your own diversification, indexing is the way to go. *And if you can't tolerate Four Pillars, then you should probably (*gulp*) seek Pooh professional help.
Hi Jp,

With regard to Nord's comment, this is a good example of the different opinions on investing!

Whilst it is true that Bernstein wrote an even more complicated book that was only really read by academics and his 'Four Pillars' second book was intended for a broader market, it is still anything but an easy read for newbies to the subject. It matters not that Gillette Edmunds may have left out some details. By reading a selection of books one builds up a broader understanding of the different approaches - as I said - and one reaches conclusions as to which you personally prefer. A one book solution to gathering knowledge is not always desirable as everyone has inbuilt biases and if starting too high up the learning curve may serve to confuse more than it educates!

All the best,
Petey
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Speaking of Vanguard...
Old 03-20-2005, 09:04 PM   #19
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Speaking of Vanguard...

Before you hand your money to Vanguard, be informed. Take a look at this FundAlarm archive; scroll down about halfway to the story of former Vanguard employee Dee Dee Havens.

I'm sure Vanguard's been working on their customer service, but it's still an issue over at the Vanguard Diehards board.

Never had a problem with Fidelity. Now that they've made their index-fee reductions permanent, I'm not sure whether Gus Sauter is worth Vanguard's "higher" expenses. But you probably can't lose with Wellesley & Wellington, as long as you don't turn your back on their customer-service people.

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Re: It's time for ER - Please help
Old 03-21-2005, 06:05 AM   #20
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Re: It's time for ER - Please help

Vangurds very success may be killing them customer service wise.

Vanguard and Fidelity are the two biggest.

The trick is to inform yourself as much as possible before commiting to anything.
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