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Re: I've Had it
Old 10-14-2005, 01:19 PM   #21
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Re: I've Had it

A couple of positives:: As of early afternoon the oils and oil service stocks are breaking (somewhat) with the direction of the fluids.* If stocks show they can advance while oil continues to fall into the fifties this could be a great reenter spot for oil stocks.
The other thing to watch for is a strong last hour close.
It is hard to be a believer in today's action cause everything was oversold to an extreme. You want sauce with that dead cat bounce?
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Re: I've Had it
Old 10-14-2005, 01:32 PM   #22
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Re: I've Had it

Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
My understanding of why core inflation is important is that when the core starts picking up, that means you're seeing the energy increases spreading through other parts of the economy.*
Its only a matter of time before inflation spreads beyond food and energy. Fuel prices have been rising for over a year. Agricultural commodities have been on a run too. Soon enough, it will be in the core. In the meantime, overall inflation is causing plenty of pain out there in the "real" economy.
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Re: I've Had it
Old 10-14-2005, 02:24 PM   #23
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Re: I've Had it

Instead of increasing core CPI, the increased energy costs could be absorbed by businesses, resulting in lower profit margins. I don't think this will happen forever, as eventually businesses' prices will increase to reflect their true operating costs.
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Re: I've Had it
Old 10-14-2005, 02:39 PM   #24
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Re: I've Had it

Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
Instead of increasing core CPI, the increased energy costs could be absorbed by businesses, resulting in lower profit margins.* I don't think this will happen forever, as eventually businesses' prices will increase to reflect their true operating costs.*
Yup, that's exactly what's been happening for the last year or two, both domestically and internationally.* *The economy is weak enough that manufacturers don't think they have a lot of pricing power, but they are finally starting to cave in under margin pressure.* * Remember that press release that Toyota issued a while back?* *Something like "To give GM a break, we're going to raise our prices."* *It's hard to spin a price increase.* * *That's also partly why we just saw such large import inflation -- those guys are under forex pressure and energy price pressure.* *The core is slowly heating up.
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Re: I've Had it
Old 10-14-2005, 03:17 PM   #25
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Re: I've Had it

Stock ... Schmock (and bond ... schmond).

Can't touch my 401k for 20+ years ... I'm bettings things will be a little higher than they are now.

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