Useful Links

VanWinkle · 05-28-2018, 08:01 AM

I ran across this retirement guide while reading at Seeking Alpha and thought it was interesting. Some info is well known, other parts may surprise some people. Please take it with a grain of salt!

https://jpmorgansmartretirement.com/...455_JP-GTR.pdf

I apologize in advance if someone has already linked to this.

VW

flintnational · 05-28-2018, 08:20 AM

Thanks for posting. I particularly like the charts and graphs. While I have seen a lot of this data, I have not seen it compiled in one place. The SS data, pages 10 and 11, provides a good visual of "when to take SS". They save page 48, the last page, to pitch annuities. From a quick review, that seemed to be the only product information. Overall its seems to be a good reference of useful retirement planning data.

COcheesehead · 05-28-2018, 08:20 AM

That’s actually a pretty good summary with a lot of good visuals. I like pictures.

Dtail · 05-28-2018, 08:34 AM

Nice article with easy to understand charts. Bookmarked it. Thanks for posting.

target2019 · 05-28-2018, 08:48 AM

Thank you, VanWinkle.
Good presentation to keep around.

USGrant1962 · 05-28-2018, 08:56 AM

Yes, good graphics. Lots of good comparisons among the States.

Factoids that jumped out at me:

Pg 7 - 24% cited "Able to afford early retirement" as reason for retiring earlier than planned. This speaks to this forum, and is quite a bit higher than I would have expected based on mass media portrayals of everyone struggling to retire.

Pgs 30-32 - interesting view of health insurance inflation that combines inflation with age-based premiums to yield 6.5% Medicare inflation. The same concept would apply to ACA. Yikes!

Pg 40 - nice time in the market versus timing the market graphic. I've seen this one before. Bottom line is missing just a few of the best days in the market can cut your return in half or more.

capjak · 05-28-2018, 09:21 AM

Thanks for posting nice high level summary

Texas Proud · 05-28-2018, 09:45 AM

I am still going through it and already learned something important to me...

I plan to wait till I am 70 to start SS... and was always just doing the quick calculation to come up with 132% for my benefits... BUT, I was born after 1954 so I will not get there... probably 128%...

And if after 1960 then the max is 128%....

Nice read so far... thanks....

Edit to add.... the chart on pg 11 is the most interesting IMO.... it answers the question of breakeven on when to choose SS based on expected returns... you can do a little dirty math if you want to include spouse by just adding on extra years to your life....

USGrant1962 · 05-28-2018, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Texas Proud

And if after 1960 then the max is 128%....

I noticed that too. I never really thought through the impact of compressing the FRA-70 gap from 5 to 3 years. It is actually a noticeable cut in ultimate benefits for those of us born after 1959.

Sunset · 05-28-2018, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dtail

Nice article with easy to understand charts. Bookmarked it. Thanks for posting.

Because it's a pdf file, you can download it.

OldShooter · 05-28-2018, 10:43 AM

Thanks for posting. I am going to forward the link to a couple of people who are on the cusp of retirement. I will tell them, though, to rip out the slide (#48) on annuities, drive a wooden stake through it, burn it to ashes, and flush the ashes down the toilet.

Sunset · 05-28-2018, 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by USGrant1962

Yes, good graphics. Lots of good comparisons among the States.

Factoids that jumped out at me:

Pg 7 - 24% cited "Able to afford early retirement" as reason for retiring earlier than planned. This speaks to this forum, and is quite a bit higher than I would have expected based on mass media portrayals of everyone struggling to retire.

....

Same here, but without knowing how they got these numbers, it could be suspect.

After all a person laid off from a job, realizes it will be hard to get another job, and decides to "settle" for early retirement with less savings than planned, but can still afford to get by while waiting for SS.

Could still count themselves being able to "afford" early retirement.

Carpediem · 05-28-2018, 12:13 PM

Thanks VW for posting this. Very interesting and informative. Plus, the graphs and charts made it easy to show to the sometimes worried spouse to say "see honey, we're going to be fine". :-)

FANOFJESUS · 05-28-2018, 12:47 PM

Good stuff

FANOFJESUS · 05-28-2018, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carpediem

Thanks VW for posting this. Very interesting and informative. Plus, the graphs and charts made it easy to show to the sometimes worried spouse to say "see honey, we're going to be fine". :-)

Some of you guys kill me but I love it. LOL

rothlev · 05-28-2018, 01:13 PM

page 21 - spending amounts:

I don't see a category for taxes? So do we assume this is all spending except for taxes?

OldShooter · 05-28-2018, 01:15 PM

JP Morgan does a good job on this type of thing. Seeing the link today reminded me that I had saved a very good "JP Morgan Guide to the Markets" dated year-end 2016. A quick Google search found me the current version: https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/adv/insights/guide-to-the-markets Anyone who likes to wallow in charts and graphs will be in heaven with this one.

I generally hate the "Asset Class Returns" quilt charts but on page 60 they have one that includes an "Asset Allocation" portfolio that is about 35% fixed income with the rest in equities with a dab of commodities and REITs. Quite interesting.

Page 64 delivers the news that the "average investor" has barely beat inflation over the last 20 years. IMO this is an argument for Mr. Average to find an FA who will keep him fully invested, regardless of the fact that the FA will probably underperform the market.