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Old 01-07-2011, 11:26 AM   #21
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Old 01-07-2011, 11:34 AM   #22
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ACtually I found the interview obtuse, inconsistant, and not very useful. Now is a hard time to invest? When was that not true except in hindsight? I am sure Bogle has made great contibutions but this interview wouldn't appear to be one of them, IMHO.
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Old 01-07-2011, 12:28 PM   #23
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is this some sort of sadly perverted humor?
It's what I do.

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I didn't 'get' the comments either, if that is any solace (and I'm not saying it should be). I didn't take it as some perverse humor
OK, here's the joke. The article says "This is the most difficult time to invest." Actually it's never difficult to invest, although it may be difficult to invest wisely or to make investment decisions.

Anyway my joke was to take it more literally than intended -- that is, "the most physically difficult time to invest."

Bogle is old, and it's snowy this time of year, so an image of Bogle going to the bank in the snow with a walker came into my sadly perverted head, and it struck me as kind of funny.
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Old 01-07-2011, 12:33 PM   #24
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"This is the most difficult time to invest." Actually it's never difficult to invest, although it may be difficult to invest wisely or to make investment decisions.

Anyway my joke was to take it more literally than intended -- that is, "the most physically difficult time to invest."

Bogle is old, and it's snowy this time of year, so an image of Bogle going to the bank in the snow with a walker came into my sadly perverted head, and it struck me as kind of funny.
And now it is. (Exceedingly so.) More proof in the adage about worthless posts and pictures.
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Old 01-07-2011, 01:19 PM   #25
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Sure - this is funny but me making a joke about some unknown-to-me lawyer's brain cancer is bad. Next thing you know jokes about old ladies with walkers on icy sidewalks will be tut-tutted.
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Old 01-07-2011, 01:57 PM   #26
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Next thing you know jokes about old ladies with walkers on icy sidewalks will be tut-tutted.
You mean this isn't funny?
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Old 01-07-2011, 02:13 PM   #27
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Now this is funny! No walkers on the sand.
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Old 01-07-2011, 06:17 PM   #28
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I thought that I was eccentric, but you people do have a stranger sense of humor.

I read Bogle's interview, and the message I got was that he was concerned that both stock and bond yields were terrible. It sounded like he was trying to get investors to lower their expectations.

As a pessimist myself, I am looking to see if I can live on 2% SWR. I probably can if they still give me my SS.

Else, I've got my 25' motor home and a tank of gas to get me to the New Mexico mountain. I am covered.
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Old 01-07-2011, 07:07 PM   #29
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I thought that I was eccentric, but you people do have a stranger sense of humor.

I read Bogle's interview, and the message I got was that he was concerned that both stock and bond yields were terrible. It sounded like he was trying to get investors to lower their expectations.

As a pessimist myself, I am looking to see if I can live on 2% SWR. I probably can if they still give me my SS.
I have been bitching about horrible investment environment since the spring of last year. Bonds have horrible yields and stock don't seem all that promising given their recovery from 2008/09 lows and the fundamentally lousy economy.

For most of the last decade I've always had an asset class that I felt was undervalued and offered good absolute and relative returns. From TIPs in 2000s, to value stocks in 2003, MLPs in 2006, PenFed 6% CDs in 2007, junk bonds in 2008,and stocks in Q4/08 through Q2/09. Now I haven't always been right; clearly financial stocks were a down right stupid thing to buy back in Jan 2008. However, there was also something that I've wished I had more easy cash to purchase. Not this year.
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Old 01-07-2011, 07:20 PM   #30
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I have been bitching about horrible investment environment since the spring of last year. Bonds have horrible yields and stock don't seem all that promising given their recovery from 2008/09 lows and the fundamentally lousy economy.

For most of the last decade I've always had an asset class that I felt was undervalued and offered good absolute and relative returns. From TIPs in 2000s, to value stocks in 2003, MLPs in 2006, PenFed 6% CDs in 2007, junk bonds in 2008,and stocks in Q4/08 through Q2/09. Now I haven't always been right; clearly financial stocks were a down right stupid thing to buy back in Jan 2008. However, there was also something that I've wished I had more easy cash to purchase. Not this year.
+1

There is usually something out there that looks good value (although my list would a bit different from yours because of where I live). While I can see plenty of assets that I think will provide reasonable returns, the screaming bargains of late 2008 - mid 2009 aren't there at the moment. A time for patience.
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Old 01-07-2011, 07:22 PM   #31
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Wishing for more crises there, my friends?
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Old 01-07-2011, 10:10 PM   #32
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sadly perverted humor?
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Old 01-07-2011, 10:13 PM   #33
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It did seem that the gist of the interview was, stay with Vanguard index funds.
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Old 01-08-2011, 02:14 AM   #34
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Wishing for more crises there, my friends?
Well, a short term flash crash about now would work for me as I am still accumulating and will get my year end payout for last year at the end of January/begining of February. But only this year mind you - I may be able to FIRE as early as Feb 2012 in which case I'd prefer to see an absence of such events thereafter.
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Old 01-08-2011, 08:35 AM   #35
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I read Bogle's interview, and the message I got was that he was concerned that both stock and bond yields were terrible. It sounded like he was trying to get investors to lower their expectations.
Yes, lower expectations or stay very short. What happens after you invest is always a priori unkown. However, other than huge outliers like the 90s, the maximum potential upside is pretty well known before you invest, at least stochastically.

Right now the landscape is littered with risk, though perhaps no more than many other times. But I believe that to expect high rewards from today's levels of valuations, interest rates and dividends requires suspending one's sense of past history, assuming that one has a sense of past history to suspend.

Ha
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Old 01-08-2011, 08:45 AM   #36
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It did seem that the gist of the interview was, stay with Vanguard index funds.
Agree. Too difficult for you guys so let us do it for you.
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Old 01-08-2011, 09:13 AM   #37
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OK, here's the joke. ... -- that is, "the most physically difficult time to invest."
Ahhh - now I get it, physically difficult to invest versus mentally difficult. It is funny, a little twisted (humor often needs to be a little twisted to be funny), not really perverse IMO, though it could go in that direction if delivered differently (or just received differently). And now I'm wondering why I didn't get it the first time round, but that's how it goes.


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Yes, lower expectaions or stay very short. What happens after you invest is always a priori unkown. However, other than huge outliers like the 90s, the maximum potential upside is pretty well known before you invest, at least stochastically.

Right now the landscape is littered with risk, though perhaps no more than many other times. But I believe that to expect high rewards from today's levels of valuations, interest rates and dividends requires suspending one's sense of past history, assuming that one has a sense of past history to suspend.

Ha
Excellent perspective - thanks.

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Old 01-08-2011, 11:12 AM   #38
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For most of the last decade I've always had an asset class that I felt was undervalued and offered good absolute and relative returns. From TIPs in 2000s, to value stocks in 2003, MLPs in 2006, PenFed 6% CDs in 2007, junk bonds in 2008,and stocks in Q4/08 through Q2/09. Now I haven't always been right; clearly financial stocks were a down right stupid thing to buy back in Jan 2008. However, there was also something that I've wished I had more easy cash to purchase. Not this year.
Yeah, I tend to agree. Nothing looks attractively valued now. Much of the rebound in earnings has come from cost cutting and layoffs, not real revenue growth. That sort of earnings growth is not sustainable and doesn't really help the overall economy.
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Old 01-08-2011, 01:42 PM   #39
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Yeah, I tend to agree. Nothing looks attractively valued now. Much of the rebound in earnings has come from cost cutting and layoffs, not real revenue growth. That sort of earnings growth is not sustainable and doesn't really help the overall economy.
Condos in Florida? I don't know but have heard that they are getting pretty cheap. It may not be the bottom of the real estate crash, but then one doesn't have to invest at the exact bottom to make money.

Of course, all I NEED is more real estate to maintain. No way, no how, not this girl.
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Old 01-08-2011, 01:53 PM   #40
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Now this is funny!
No walkers on the sand.
OMG... this is frightening! I no longer feel bad about how I might look in a bikini at 62...
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