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01-07-2011, 10:26 AM
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#21
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 6,258
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__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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01-07-2011, 10:34 AM
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#22
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Alberta/Ontario/ Arizona
Posts: 3,393
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ACtually I found the interview obtuse, inconsistant, and not very useful. Now is a hard time to invest? When was that not true except in hindsight? I am sure Bogle has made great contibutions but this interview wouldn't appear to be one of them, IMHO.
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01-07-2011, 11:28 AM
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#23
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
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Quote:
is this some sort of sadly perverted humor?
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It's what I do.
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I didn't 'get' the comments either, if that is any solace (and I'm not saying it should be). I didn't take it as some perverse humor
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OK, here's the joke. The article says "This is the most difficult time to invest." Actually it's never difficult to invest, although it may be difficult to invest wisely or to make investment decisions.
Anyway my joke was to take it more literally than intended -- that is, "the most physically difficult time to invest."
Bogle is old, and it's snowy this time of year, so an image of Bogle going to the bank in the snow with a walker came into my sadly perverted head, and it struck me as kind of funny.
__________________
Al
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01-07-2011, 11:33 AM
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#24
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 6,258
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl
"This is the most difficult time to invest." Actually it's never difficult to invest, although it may be difficult to invest wisely or to make investment decisions.
Anyway my joke was to take it more literally than intended -- that is, "the most physically difficult time to invest."
Bogle is old, and it's snowy this time of year, so an image of Bogle going to the bank in the snow with a walker came into my sadly perverted head, and it struck me as kind of funny.
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And now it is. (Exceedingly so.) More proof in the adage about worthless posts and pictures.
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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01-07-2011, 12:19 PM
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#25
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Independence
Posts: 7,298
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Sure - this is funny but me making a joke about some unknown-to-me lawyer's brain cancer is bad. Next thing you know jokes about old ladies with walkers on icy sidewalks will be tut-tutted.
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01-07-2011, 12:57 PM
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#26
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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Quote:
Originally Posted by calmloki
Next thing you know jokes about old ladies with walkers on icy sidewalks will be tut-tutted.
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You mean this isn't funny?
__________________
Numbers is hard
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01-07-2011, 01:13 PM
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#27
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 1,324
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Now this is funny! No walkers on the sand.
__________________
We are, as I have said, one equation short. – Keynes
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01-07-2011, 05:17 PM
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#28
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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I thought that I was eccentric, but you people do have a stranger sense of humor.
I read Bogle's interview, and the message I got was that he was concerned that both stock and bond yields were terrible. It sounded like he was trying to get investors to lower their expectations.
As a pessimist myself, I am looking to see if I can live on 2% SWR. I probably can if they still give me my SS.
Else, I've got my 25' motor home and a tank of gas to get me to the New Mexico mountain. I am covered.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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01-07-2011, 06:07 PM
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#29
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
I thought that I was eccentric, but you people do have a stranger sense of humor.
I read Bogle's interview, and the message I got was that he was concerned that both stock and bond yields were terrible. It sounded like he was trying to get investors to lower their expectations.
As a pessimist myself, I am looking to see if I can live on 2% SWR. I probably can if they still give me my SS.
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I have been bitching about horrible investment environment since the spring of last year. Bonds have horrible yields and stock don't seem all that promising given their recovery from 2008/09 lows and the fundamentally lousy economy.
For most of the last decade I've always had an asset class that I felt was undervalued and offered good absolute and relative returns. From TIPs in 2000s, to value stocks in 2003, MLPs in 2006, PenFed 6% CDs in 2007, junk bonds in 2008,and stocks in Q4/08 through Q2/09. Now I haven't always been right; clearly financial stocks were a down right stupid thing to buy back in Jan 2008. However, there was also something that I've wished I had more easy cash to purchase. Not this year.
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01-07-2011, 06:20 PM
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#30
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 1,688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp
I have been bitching about horrible investment environment since the spring of last year. Bonds have horrible yields and stock don't seem all that promising given their recovery from 2008/09 lows and the fundamentally lousy economy.
For most of the last decade I've always had an asset class that I felt was undervalued and offered good absolute and relative returns. From TIPs in 2000s, to value stocks in 2003, MLPs in 2006, PenFed 6% CDs in 2007, junk bonds in 2008,and stocks in Q4/08 through Q2/09. Now I haven't always been right; clearly financial stocks were a down right stupid thing to buy back in Jan 2008. However, there was also something that I've wished I had more easy cash to purchase. Not this year.
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+1
There is usually something out there that looks good value (although my list would a bit different from yours because of where I live). While I can see plenty of assets that I think will provide reasonable returns, the screaming bargains of late 2008 - mid 2009 aren't there at the moment. A time for patience.
__________________
Budgeting is a skill practised by people who are bad at politics.
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01-07-2011, 06:22 PM
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#31
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Wishing for more crises there, my friends?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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01-07-2011, 09:10 PM
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#32
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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Quote:
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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01-07-2011, 09:13 PM
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#33
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 739
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It did seem that the gist of the interview was, stay with Vanguard index funds.
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01-08-2011, 01:14 AM
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#34
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 1,688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
Wishing for more crises there, my friends?
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Well, a short term flash crash about now would work for me as I am still accumulating and will get my year end payout for last year at the end of January/begining of February. But only this year mind you - I may be able to FIRE as early as Feb 2012 in which case I'd prefer to see an absence of such events thereafter.
__________________
Budgeting is a skill practised by people who are bad at politics.
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01-08-2011, 07:35 AM
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#35
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
I read Bogle's interview, and the message I got was that he was concerned that both stock and bond yields were terrible. It sounded like he was trying to get investors to lower their expectations.
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Yes, lower expectations or stay very short. What happens after you invest is always a priori unkown. However, other than huge outliers like the 90s, the maximum potential upside is pretty well known before you invest, at least stochastically.
Right now the landscape is littered with risk, though perhaps no more than many other times. But I believe that to expect high rewards from today's levels of valuations, interest rates and dividends requires suspending one's sense of past history, assuming that one has a sense of past history to suspend.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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01-08-2011, 07:45 AM
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#36
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Alberta/Ontario/ Arizona
Posts: 3,393
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zero
It did seem that the gist of the interview was, stay with Vanguard index funds.
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Agree. Too difficult for you guys so let us do it for you.
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01-08-2011, 08:13 AM
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#37
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,891
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl
OK, here's the joke. ... -- that is, "the most physically difficult time to invest."
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Ahhh - now I get it, physically difficult to invest versus mentally difficult. It is funny, a little twisted (humor often needs to be a little twisted to be funny), not really perverse IMO, though it could go in that direction if delivered differently (or just received differently). And now I'm wondering why I didn't get it the first time round, but that's how it goes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
Yes, lower expectaions or stay very short. What happens after you invest is always a priori unkown. However, other than huge outliers like the 90s, the maximum potential upside is pretty well known before you invest, at least stochastically.
Right now the landscape is littered with risk, though perhaps no more than many other times. But I believe that to expect high rewards from today's levels of valuations, interest rates and dividends requires suspending one's sense of past history, assuming that one has a sense of past history to suspend.
Ha
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Excellent perspective - thanks.
-ERD50
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01-08-2011, 10:12 AM
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#38
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp
For most of the last decade I've always had an asset class that I felt was undervalued and offered good absolute and relative returns. From TIPs in 2000s, to value stocks in 2003, MLPs in 2006, PenFed 6% CDs in 2007, junk bonds in 2008,and stocks in Q4/08 through Q2/09. Now I haven't always been right; clearly financial stocks were a down right stupid thing to buy back in Jan 2008. However, there was also something that I've wished I had more easy cash to purchase. Not this year.
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Yeah, I tend to agree. Nothing looks attractively valued now. Much of the rebound in earnings has come from cost cutting and layoffs, not real revenue growth. That sort of earnings growth is not sustainable and doesn't really help the overall economy.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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01-08-2011, 12:42 PM
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#39
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,500
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Yeah, I tend to agree. Nothing looks attractively valued now. Much of the rebound in earnings has come from cost cutting and layoffs, not real revenue growth. That sort of earnings growth is not sustainable and doesn't really help the overall economy.
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Condos in Florida? I don't know but have heard that they are getting pretty cheap. It may not be the bottom of the real estate crash, but then one doesn't have to invest at the exact bottom to make money.
Of course, all I NEED is more real estate to maintain. No way, no how, not this girl.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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01-08-2011, 12:53 PM
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#40
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 939
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ronin
Now this is funny!
No walkers on the sand.
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OMG... this is frightening! I no longer feel bad about how I might look in a bikini at 62...
__________________
I used to be “Thinker25” here. Retired at 62, now 73 (in 2021), no regrets & single again. I love it. I’m in RI.
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