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Jack Bogle's webinar today
Old 06-15-2016, 04:25 PM   #1
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Jack Bogle's webinar today

Anyone sit through this? I missed it.. any takeaways you can share? Curious what he said about current economic indicators..
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Old 06-15-2016, 04:45 PM   #2
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Was it this one?

Forbes Welcome
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Old 06-15-2016, 04:57 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by target2019 View Post
Was it this one?

Forbes Welcome
No... this was the email text sent earlier to promote registration for the free webinar..
The list of iconic figures in the financial services industry is short. Most investors would argue that Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle belongs on that list. For the past 65 years, Mr. Bogle has championed the cause of the average investor. Join our founder for a special live webcast as he offers his opinions on today's financial services industry. He'll discuss:

• His thoughts on today's markets.
• His investing philosophy.
• The keys to successful investing.

Date: Wednesday, June 15, 2016


I'm confident it was basic stuff, but was interested in hearing him anyway.
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Old 06-15-2016, 05:50 PM   #4
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What I've found is that he gets out "on the circuit" and lays the old groundwork, but updates it with current news items. Makes it interesting for the audience he is addressing.

https://www.google.com/#q=bogle&safe=off&tbm=nws

That should show news items that you can get to. New mixed with old, but he is always an interesting read, or listen.
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Old 06-15-2016, 06:05 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by target2019 View Post
What I've found is that he gets out "on the circuit" and lays the old groundwork, but updates it with current news items. Makes it interesting for the audience he is addressing.

https://www.google.com/#q=bogle&safe=off&tbm=nws

That should show news items that you can get to. New mixed with old, but he is always an interesting read, or listen.
thanks..looks like summary of his remarks today
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Old 06-15-2016, 07:32 PM   #6
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I watched it, but I was at work so I kept getting interrupted. It was largely the standard Boglehead message, with the comment that the current conditions really don't change the standard advice. Don't jump back and forth between investments, low fees are key etc. The set up had an interviewer asking questions people had submitted either in advance or real time on twitter.

I'd obviously heard his message many times, but I hadn't seen him talk, so I was also interested in just getting some sense of him as a person. .

I think they said they'd put up video or a summary in a couple weeks.
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Old 06-15-2016, 09:15 PM   #7
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I watched it, but I was at work so I kept getting interrupted.
Isn't that so annoying?

Thanks for making my day!
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Old 06-16-2016, 03:52 PM   #8
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My notes are too scrambled to begin to summarize the Webinar. Jack gave Bogleheads a great complement and Mel got a nice tribute in.

My fav~

Q: Why are hedge funds so popular?

Bogle answer: "Because people are fools."
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Old 06-16-2016, 03:57 PM   #9
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My notes are too scrambled to begin to summarize the Webinar. Jack gave Bogleheads a great complement and Mel got a nice tribute in.

My fav~

Q: Why are hedge funds so popular?

Bogle answer: "Because people are fools."
Or perhaps lots of people are looking for get rich quick schemes, which of course is a national pre-occupation. After all what is a gold rush but a get rich quick scheme, and a lot of the US was settled by gold rushes. (look at the deserts of Ca and Nv for examples of towns that boomed and busted for gold and silver (starting with Virgina City, Nv.) Of course I think that Las Vegas, NV was about mining the gold in Tourists wallets but that vein eventually stopped growing as fast as those that wished to mine it.
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Old 06-16-2016, 05:06 PM   #10
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I'm going out on a limb here, because I don't remember Jack Bogle's exact words, but I believe he said to expect lower returns on stocks over the next 10 year period ... perhaps 4 to 5%. Can anyone else conform if the remember him saying that?

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Old 06-16-2016, 06:27 PM   #11
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I recall him saying the rate of return while he was investing and suggesting that people should expect it to be lower in the future, but I don't recall the specifics.
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Old 06-17-2016, 01:39 PM   #12
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I'm going out on a limb here, because I don't remember Jack Bogle's exact words, but I believe he said to expect lower returns on stocks over the next 10 year period ... perhaps 4 to 5%. Can anyone else conform if the remember him saying that?

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Old 06-18-2016, 10:27 AM   #13
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Thanks for the link- he actually said that 4% is a nominal return- add in the fund costs+inflation and you're probably at 1.5% with a 50/50 portfolio.

Real Estate around here in California is pretty expensive nowadays so finding cashflow positive properties is difficult. So what's a small-time investor to do who still wants to retire in the next 8-10 yrs with a little over $1M - and if the 4% SWR is still considered safe if we do have a lul in the market for 10yr.
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Old 06-18-2016, 12:44 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Katiek View Post
I recall him saying the rate of return while he was investing and suggesting that people should expect it to be lower in the future, but I don't recall the specifics.
My notes from the webinar indicate that a 50/50 balanced fund over the next 10 years will generate a return of 4-5% annually. Was that what you were recalling?
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Jack Bogle's webinar today
Old 06-19-2016, 10:06 AM   #15
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Jack Bogle's webinar today

Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeyd View Post
My notes from the webinar indicate that a 50/50 balanced fund over the next 10 years will generate a return of 4-5% annually. Was that what you were recalling?
I have just finished interview, and it sounded a whole lot worse than that. I am not a financial expert, but what I got from the interview is

10 year return of

4% for equity
3% on bonds (He said you need the exposure to corporate bonds, but 3% seems a bit high even for that, but anyway..)
=3.5% on a 50/50 balanced portfolio

3.5%-2%(inflation)-1%(expense ratio and portfolio transaction costs, etc)=0.5%

You also need to add some kind of sale charge fee of around 0.5%, so
0.5%-0.5% is 0%

Then he talked about deducting for taxes and investor behavior (we tend to sell at the wrong time) and deducted another 0.5% so at the end, it was a negative number

Jack said pension managers are using 7.5% return for their pension plans and he is sure that we cannot achieve that, but I just have to hope it is higher than Jack's prediction...

Has Jack been bang on so far in the past?? It is about 75 degrees here and I am getting the chills!
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Old 06-19-2016, 02:17 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by tmm99 View Post
I have just finished interview, and it sounded a whole lot worse than that. I am not a financial expert, but what I got from the interview is

10 year return of

4% for equity
3% on bonds (He said you need the exposure to corporate bonds, but 3% seems a bit high even for that, but anyway..)
=3.5% on a 50/50 balanced portfolio

3.5%-2%(inflation)-1%(expense ratio and portfolio transaction costs, etc)=0.5%

You also need to add some kind of sale charge fee of around 0.5%, so
0.5%-0.5% is 0%

Then he talked about deducting for taxes and investor behavior (we tend to sell at the wrong time) and deducted another 0.5% so at the end, it was a negative number

Jack said pension managers are using 7.5% return for their pension plans and he is sure that we cannot achieve that, but I just have to hope it is higher than Jack's prediction...

Has Jack been bang on so far in the past?? It is about 75 degrees here and I am getting the chills!
I didn't watch the webinar but thanks for the summary. I was on the fence on how much to buy at the next TIPS auction but I just decided to add to my order.
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Old 06-20-2016, 04:43 AM   #17
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My notes from the webinar indicate that a 50/50 balanced fund over the next 10 years will generate a return of 4-5% annually. Was that what you were recalling?
that is my projection too for a balanced portfolio , 4-5% nominal .

not great but better then losses
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Old 06-20-2016, 12:03 PM   #18
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3% on bonds (He said you need the exposure to corporate bonds, but 3% seems a bit high even for that, but anyway..)
He was talking about corporate intermediate bonds, their SEC yield right now is 3%. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/fun...FundIntExt=INT

Bonds are very straightforward in general. Current yield == future return.

Personally I wouldn't be surprised if Bogle was spoton for the nominal returns. Inflation however might be stuck at below 2%, so in real terms it ain't all bad then
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Old 06-20-2016, 12:34 PM   #19
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Thanks for the link- he actually said that 4% is a nominal return- add in the fund costs+inflation and you're probably at 1.5% with a 50/50 portfolio.

Real Estate around here in California is pretty expensive nowadays so finding cashflow positive properties is difficult. So what's a small-time investor to do who still wants to retire in the next 8-10 yrs with a little over $1M - and if the 4% SWR is still considered safe if we do have a lul in the market for 10yr.
There's always the other side of the coin to work on. By that, I mean polishing up one's LBYM skills right now. The worst that could happen from that, is a too-big nestegg upon retirement.
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Old 06-20-2016, 01:04 PM   #20
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He was talking about corporate intermediate bonds, their SEC yield right now is 3%. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/fun...FundIntExt=INT

Bonds are very straightforward in general. Current yield == future return.

Personally I wouldn't be surprised if Bogle was spoton for the nominal returns. Inflation however might be stuck at below 2%, so in real terms it ain't all bad then
You are right - I just checked VCIT (which I have) and it is 3.20% yield at the moment.
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