Jim Otar's Book

[misty57]

Personally, I googled it and found it in pdf form, so I read it. There was no indication that there was a fee. It is highly likely that I will purchase a hard copy of the book for my personal use.

I DID fill out an on-line form for our county library suggesting that they buy at least one copy for each branch. If they do (and I'll keep bugging them), Otar will certainly benefit from that. It would be great if everyone who thinks this book is beneficial to them would do the same.

[REattempt]

For those looking for the free version of the book as listed in the second link in this thread...Jim asked them to remove the link and the book from their site.

They removed the link and the file.

[modhatter]

I believe that's only right. There was a lot of time and work that went into writing the book, and the author deserves to be paid for his work. Yes, it's nice to get something free - but only when it is offered.

[floridanurse]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REattempt Either way, you need to be able to live with yourself and sleep at night. As for me, though I am a LBYM type and I pinch pennies, I'd rather do the right thing... YMMV

to each his own.
I have no trouble sleeping at night. But that probably has to do with the fact that i am without morals, ethics, or conscience. and i don't believe in karma....

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by photoguy I found the book only so-so. From my recollection, pretty much all of the information you can find elsewhere online (bogleheads forum, papers, bernstein's site, etc.). It was also way too lengthy and could have used a good editing to make the same points more concisely.

Quote:

Originally Posted by photoguy Math wasn't the issue. To me, it just had the feel of a first draft where the author puts everything in and doesn't take the time to tighten their writing and content.

+1 Photoguy and I seem to agree completely on this so far.

I really WANT to like this book, so I re-read the first 150 pages and the last 80-100 pages last night. To me the math seemed trivial at best and left me thinking, "and...so?" His writing was tedious, disorganized, and didn't really say anything that isn't obvious IMO. He didn't summarize enough and to me he did not seem especially insightful. I especially loathed his initial examples like the guy who retired with a million dollar portfolio and withdrew $60K/year starting at the great depression, and didn't vary his withdrawals. 6%? Ya think? Who would DO that? It's as though he was writing his book in the 1990's when everyone was wearing rose-colored glasses.

OK, OK, don't beat me up for this post. I'll try reading the middle of the book again tonight. I am really, really trying to keep an open mind. Maybe I was in a negative mood.

[Midpack]

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R +1 Photoguy and I seem to agree completely on this so far. I really WANT to like this book, so I re-read the first 150 pages and the last 80-100 pages last night. OK, OK, don't beat me up for this post. I'll try reading the middle of the book again tonight. I am really, really trying to keep an open mind. Maybe I was in a negative mood.

If you restart in the middle, you'll never get to the most valuable part IMO.

I read the whole thing and it's badly overwritten and when I saw he wanted $50 for it, I thought that's ridiculous. To me, the valuable part of the book is The Zone Strategy, chapter 41 probably page 400-something. You'll have to jump back for some of the metrics, but The Zone Strategy is worthwhile IMO. If you don't find value in that, I couldn't recommend the rest of the book.

And I agree I was startled at the first few examples until I realized they were 6% WR's, unrealistic to be polite.

[KB]

Sorry about the awkward link situation. I found that link when I read that Jim had offered the book for free. Guess that has changed.

[unclemick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by floridanurse am I missing something? The 2nd post in this thread is a link to a free version of the PDF. I am looking at it now and it appears complete? Why am I spending the money to buy it when its free in the beginning of the thread? Is there something else you get from the purchase?

Ya buy the book and put it on your coffee table - cover side up.

Pre memorize your pontification spiel when someone asks - or even if if they don't.

heh heh heh - me? 1994's Bogle on Mutual Funds. I talked and watched their eyes glaze over.

[Shawn]

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R OK, OK, don't beat me up for this post. I'll try reading the middle of the book again tonight. I am really, really trying to keep an open mind. Maybe I was in a negative mood.

I had similar feelings although admittedly I read only the first ~100 pages. Will get around to the rest one of these days. I realize a lot of people really like the book. And for $6, you can't go too wrong. But I wouldn't spend $50 for it.

I thought it was going to be a good book after quickly thumbing through the pages. Lots of equations, tables, and figures. Cool. But I found the presentation to be somewhat unpolished. Better editing would have been useful.

More so, perhaps, I didn't like several of the examples or the conclusions obtained from the examples. I thought he made a good point in emphasizing that averages do not account for extreme events. But he kept using a 6% withdraw rate as if this was the accepted norm. So no, it didn't scare me or surprise me that a person's savings will be depleted in 10 years if they retire immediately before an event such as the Great Depression with a withdraw rate of 6%.

He seemed to criticize asset allocation, diversification, and rebalancing, pointing out that these techniques don't save a person from large drops in the market. But these techniques aren't meant to do that. Instead, they provide a (hopefully) optimal and appropriate balance between risk and return. He said that people rebalance to reduce portfolio volatility. Not really. I rebalance to keep an appropriate asset mix and to prevent me from making emotional decisions. His suggestion to rebalance based on the presidential election cycle likely results from coincidence (any number of patterns can be found in limited data).

Again, I read only the first 100 pages. But I thought these pages were too focused on the details of specific examples. There is nothing wrong with that, but I believe it would have helped if he took a step back and looked at the problem with a broader perspective. Perhaps he provides that in the rest of the book.

[Huston55]

Quote:

Originally Posted by floridanurse to each his own. I have no trouble sleeping at night. But that probably has to do with the fact that i am without morals, ethics, or conscience. and i don't believe in karma....

Yes but, karma believes in you.

[ducky911]

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R +1 Photoguy and I seem to agree completely on this so far. I really WANT to like this book, so I re-read the first 150 pages and the last 80-100 pages last night. To me the math seemed trivial at best and left me thinking, "and...so?" His writing was tedious, disorganized, and didn't really say anything that isn't obvious IMO. He didn't summarize enough and to me he did not seem especially insightful. I especially loathed his initial examples like the guy who retired with a million dollar portfolio and withdrew $60K/year starting at the great depression, and didn't vary his withdrawals. 6%? Ya think? Who would DO that? It's as though he was writing his book in the 1990's when everyone was wearing rose-colored glasses. OK, OK, don't beat me up for this post. I'll try reading the middle of the book again tonight. I am really, really trying to keep an open mind. Maybe I was in a negative mood.

Thankyou i thought i was in the minority.

You can retire on on million with 60 k a year if you buy an annuity from Jim.

I felt like i was reading a big sale pitch or watching an infomercial. Make it real hard and people will hire an advisor.

If you look at the web site that was giving the free pdf it has much of the same info.

I for one am not drinking the coolaid.

[misty57]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shawn I had similar feelings although admittedly I read only the first ~100 pages. Will get around to the rest one of these days. I realize a lot of people really like the book. And for $6, you can't go too wrong. But I wouldn't spend $50 for it. I thought it was going to be a good book after quickly thumbing through the pages. Lots of equations, tables, and figures. Cool. But I found the presentation to be somewhat unpolished. Better editing would have been useful.

I guess I would have to agree with you on that point.

I also have to admit that there was a point in my reading that I wondered if it was just going to end up being a 500+ page pitch for annuities, and I'm sure that there are some that might feel that way, depending on which zone they are in. I just glossed over all the annuity stuff and moved on in using the material to help me determine what our ISWR should be when DH retires and for that, I found it to be very helpful - more so than anything else that I have read.

We have spent many, many years saving and we want to be a little bit more liberal with regard to spending in retirement while still being a little bit more conservative with our AA. Otar helped me see that we could do this and still not run out of money; FIRECalc confirmed it.

[LOL!]

Here is an earlier thread on the book from a few years ago: http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...yth-45922.html

A theme of the 2012 thread (this thread) seems to be "Oh yeah, we already know all that." Of course you do. His book has been out a while and most of the ideas have percolated into the blogosphere and this forum.

From that other thread:

Quote:

A main theme throughout the book is that quite a bit of retirement success can come from being "lucky". Lucky with your sequence of returns, lucky with your sequence of withdrawals, lucky in the year you retire, and so on. A successful full-term retirement of 30 years cannot be predicted ahead of time because not everyone lives at the median results. In order to overcome "bad luck", one must have a larger starting portfolio than many people (but not FIRECalc users) expect and/or a lower sustainable withdrawal rate (SWR) that goes with that.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! Here is an earlier thread on the book from a few years ago: http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...yth-45922.html A theme of the 2012 thread (this thread) seems to be "Oh yeah, we already know all that." Of course you do. His book has been out a while and most of the ideas have percolated into the blogosphere and this forum. From that other thread:

Some of my posts from that other thread (the one that you started, and linked to above):

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R I guess I am lucky because I missed the "free" stage, and so I have only seen the one chapter which was still provided for free. I was not impressed. I take it that the rest of the book is much better. If/when I can skim through some of the rest of it at B&N or Amazon, if I like it then I might buy it for full price. But otherwise, no way. Cheap is nice (free is nicer!), but my time is worth something too.

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R Otar is probably a very bright and insightful engineer. Who am I to say he isn't? However engineering expertise doesn't necessarily imply expertise in other areas, and like many very bright and talented people, Otar may have assumed otherwise and may not realize where the boundaries of his expertise lie. That is what I meant by poor judgment.

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R I've got to say that the 8% withdrawal rate which he mentions (among others) is simply out of the question for me personally, whether or not my portfolio increases during the first four years! Others may differ. According to this paper in which he discusses the zones, I am one of those cautious green zone types.

The idea that anyone posting negatively about this book changed their mind due to the passage of time would be as ridiculous as saying that his ideas have drastically altered opinions in "the blogosphere" and forum, IMO. I don't even agree with many of his ideas (such as those concerning the supposed lack of effectiveness of diversification and rebalancing), and didn't back then, either. And certainly the idea of an SWR was discussed on this board ad nauseum before that book was introduced here by "LOL!".

I did get a copy of the book less than a week after my last post there, read it at that time, and was unimpressed. There were many posts on that thread by "LOL!" and others who were enamored with the book at that time and probably still are. When it was brought up again, I re-read it and had the same personal opinions as I did the first time and re-posted them on this thread with more detail. Nothing too hard to comprehend, here.

I'm sure "LOL!" and others who love the book probably adore it still and that's fine, too. What would a discussion board be without varying opinions? But some of us, including me, tend to agree with ducky911 and even think the book is almost an ad for Otar's annuities:

Quote:

Originally Posted by ducky911 You can retire on on million with 60 k a year if you buy an annuity from Jim. I felt like i was reading a big sale pitch or watching an infomercial. Make it real hard and people will hire an advisor. If you look at the web site that was giving the free pdf it has much of the same info. I for one am not drinking the coolaid.

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Numbers is hard.

Barbie

[unclemick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy Numbers is hard. Barbie

I'm glad I retired in 1993 before I "knew' a lot of this stuff. But then I went thru a period of 'unemployed slacker with a cheap SOB attitude'. Discovering this forum I instantly transformed into a warm and smarmy ER - often blowing myself a kiss in the mirror. Or something.



heh heh heh -

[REattempt]

I think the perspective that Jim is advocating active management to be wrong....in his conclusion to the entire book, here is one of his "tenents":

"The average person has little or no hope of achieving anywhere close to index returns. Most mutual fund managers are either no different than the average investor, or worse. There are plenty of ETF's available. You can put together a well-diversified portfolio with four or fiver differnet ETFs. I prefer broad based fundamental index funds."

YMMV.

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Quote:

And I agree I was startled at the first few examples until I realized they were 6% WR's, unrealistic to be polite.

The "6%" did not just fall out of the sky.

At one time 6% was widely touted as a sound SWR, as many here will recall.

I suspect Mr. O. wanted to kill that idea up front if a reader was still entertaining 6%.

[Major Tom]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy The "6%" did not just fall out of the sky. At one time 6% was widely touted as a sound SWR, as many here will recall. I suspect Mr. O. wanted to kill that idea up front if a reader was still entertaining 6%.

I only wish that 6% was a safe WR. I'd be living in hog heaven right now

[Midpack]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Major Tom I only wish that 6% was a safe WR. I'd be living in hog heaven right now

For 30 years, 6% would have been safe 48.6% of the time without Soc Sec, and 82.9% of the time with $16K/yr in Soc Sec. No recommendation, just what FIRECALC returns...