Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Just 4 1/2 years to recover from the 1929 crash
Old 04-30-2009, 11:32 AM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
walkinwood's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Denver
Posts: 2,677
Just 4 1/2 years to recover from the 1929 crash

I think there is merit to this argument especially in the light of our propensity to look at portfolio values in inflation adjusted terms.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/yo...ds/26stra.html

Does anyone have data to show how long it took to recover from the 1970s market using the same parameters?
__________________

__________________
walkinwood is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 04-30-2009, 12:05 PM   #2
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,613
Quote:
Originally Posted by walkinwood View Post
Does anyone have data to show how long it took to recover from the 1970s market using the same parameters?
The article you linked addresses that:

In fact, according to a Hulbert Financial Digest study of down markets since 1900, the average recovery time is just over two years, when factors like inflation and dividends are taken into account. The longest was the recovery from the December 1974 low; it took more than eight years for the market to return to its previous peak, which was reached in late 1972.
__________________

__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2009, 02:27 PM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
Robert the Red's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 325
See Bogleheads :: View topic - 1929 crash: 4.5 not 25 years for recovery for a lengthy discussion of this issue. It's more complicated than the NY Times article posits.
__________________
Robert the Red is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2009, 02:51 PM   #4
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,613
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert the Red View Post
See Bogleheads :: View topic - 1929 crash: 4.5 not 25 years for recovery for a lengthy discussion of this issue. It's more complicated than the NY Times article posits.
You could almost make it as infinitely complicated as you wanted.

Do you adjust for inflation? Taxes? Dividends? Do you include the universe of all stocks (including those that went under)? Do you use an index? If you use an index, do you price-weight the index, cap-weight the index or use equal weights? Do you use an index with all of its stocks as they are today or do you allow the index to change over time?
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2009, 09:32 AM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
walkinwood's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Denver
Posts: 2,677
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
The article you linked addresses that:

In fact, according to a Hulbert Financial Digest study of down markets since 1900, the average recovery time is just over two years, when factors like inflation and dividends are taken into account. The longest was the recovery from the December 1974 low; it took more than eight years for the market to return to its previous peak, which was reached in late 1972.
Thanks for pointing that out.. talk about having the answer right in front of my nose!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert the Red View Post
See Bogleheads :: View topic - 1929 crash: 4.5 not 25 years for recovery for a lengthy discussion of this issue. It's more complicated than the NY Times article posits.
Thanks for the pointer.
__________________
walkinwood is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
When will the Stock Market Recover? chinaco FIRE and Money 33 08-22-2008 01:12 PM
Don't recover yet! Gazingus FIRE and Money 33 04-24-2008 02:59 PM
It's Not 1929, but It's the Biggest Mess Since FinallyRetired FIRE and Money 25 12-07-2007 01:06 PM
It took almost 7 years to recover! SP500 Sam FIRE and Money 40 05-21-2007 05:53 PM
Let's Party like it's 1929!!!!!!! camberiu FIRE and Money 11 02-28-2007 08:10 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:37 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.